J.J. Spaun's struggles have continued to start the year, recording four missed cuts and just one finish inside the top 40 through seven events. He looks to find some sort of turnaround at the Valero Texas Open, where he won in 2022 and has one other top-25 finish in seven appearances. It's no surprise that Spaun has struggled with the putter, ranking 159th on tour and losing -0.875 strokes per round. Outside of that, he has been solid, ranking 38th on approach (+0.355), 37th in total driving, and 51st tee to green (+0.424). He also ranks in the 87th percentile in proximity from 150-200 yards, a distance that accounted for 36.5% of approach shots here last year. His only top-25 finish this season came during his only positive week on the greens, and his results in San Antonio follow a similar pattern. If Spaun can produce even a neutral week with the putter, he could find himself in contention at a familiar course once again.

Through five events to start the season, Thorbjorn Olesen recorded four missed cuts and a T40 finish, which came at the Cognizant Classic. He showed signs of a turnaround last week at the Texas Children's Houston Open, finishing T14 while gaining over 5.8 strokes on approach. He'll look to carry that into the Valero Texas Open, where he has finished T14 and T5 over the last two years. His success here has been driven by strong approach play, gaining over 8.1 strokes on the field across those two starts. However, the flat stick remains a major concern. He ranks 142nd in putting this season (-0.538 strokes per round) and has lost strokes on the greens in both appearances in San Antonio. Olesen also ranks 17th on approach (+0.608), 24th tee to green (+0.786), and 17th in proximity from 200+ yards, a range that made up over 26% of approach shots here last year. The ball striking will need to carry him, but he is trending upwards ahead of a course he has found success at.

After recording no result better than T40 through his first seven events, Denny McCarthy has started to turn things around, posting finishes of T26 and T12 in his last two starts. He looks to keep that momentum going at the Valero Texas Open, where he has recorded finishes of T18, second, and T18 in his last three appearances. Success at TPC San Antonio typically hinges on ball striking, along with accuracy off the tee and short game play. McCarthy ranks 74th in strokes gained on approach (+0.110 per round), 78th in driving accuracy, 59th in putting (+0.172), and 81st around the green (+0.007). Over his last three starts here, he has gained a massive 32.75 strokes on the field, including over 18.2 strokes putting. This is clearly a course where McCarthy is comfortable, and at $8,200 on DraftKings, he offers strong upside at this price point.

After missing the cut in four of his first five events to start the season, Chris Kirk has started to show some improvement, recording finishes of T47, T27, and T51 in his last three starts. He looks to continue that trend at the Valero Texas Open, where he has historically played well, with five finishes of T13 or better in 10 appearances. Success at TPC San Antonio typically hinges on ball striking, along with accuracy off the tee and short game play. Kirk ranks 105th in total strokes gained (-0.313 per round), 55th on approach (+0.226), and 125th in putting (-0.366). He also sits 51st in total driving and 76th in proximity from 200+ yards, a range that made up 26.8% of approach shots here last year. At $7,200 on DraftKings, Kirk offers strong course upside at his price point.