Welcome back to “Part the Cloud”, where we’ll take a deep dive into defensive coverage schemes and how we can exploit them to find hidden gem Wide Receivers.
GOTTA KNOW WHERE YOU’VE BEEN…
Here’s a look back at my plays from Week 17:
- Romeo Doubs
- DKFP: 12.8 (2.5x)
- FDFP: 9.3 (1.7x)
- Alec Pierce
- DKFP: 27.2 (5.8x)
- FDFP: 24.2 (4.3x)
Doubs caught 7 balls on 11 targets, more than double the number of targets of anyone else on the team. He only managed 58 yards, as the Packers aerial attack was not what we’ve come to expect. Still, though, he was far and away the number 1 guy. It just didn’t pan out for us. Pierce, on the other hand, caught 6 of 9 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. The Giants had struggled with deep balls all season and Flacco keyed in on this. Only 14 of Pierce’s yards came after the catch.
…To Know Where You’re Going
There are many ways to attack Week 18 but two of the most popular is to look at who still needs this game like air to breathe and who is close to getting incentives. In this article, I want to look beyond that, as there are other factors that bring about exploitable situations that will go overlooked.
Marvin Mims
DK: $4600 (Projected Ownership: 2.24%), FD: $5600 (Projected Ownership: 2.33%)
Everyone knows that Sutton needs 82 yards to hit his incentives and that he is the number 1 for Denver in a game they will likely play against a bunch of backups. He will be a public play, as I’m sure Nix will try to get him his money asap. What looks to be going overlooked is that Marvin Mims has been a beast these last 2 weeks and is now the primary right WR, supplanting Troy Franklin, and will see a heavily rotated left side of the Chiefs defense for the entirety of the game. McDuffie, who has given up 5 TDs this season, is doubtful and it’s reasonable to think his backup is exploitable. The slot, where Mims does his best work and has been targeted on 2 out of 3 routes run these last 2 weeks, is the best matchup from a catch rate standpoint, with Christian Roland-Wallace allowing a catch on 88.2% of routes. Looking at Mims and the Chiefs from a scheme point of view, Mims has done his best work these last 2 weeks against Man and Cover 4, which just so happen to be the coverages that the Chiefs have used the most over the past month.
Adam Thielen
DK: $6200 (Projected Ownership: 6.19%), FD: $6400 (Projected Ownership: 5.84%)
If there is any team that needs this game like air, Atlanta is arguably that team. Only one team from the NFC South is getting into the playoffs, so losing isn’t an option. People are generally on the optimistic side believing that because Atlanta needs this game, that they want to pull for them. However, since 1990, games between eliminated teams and teams in a must-win situation in the last 2 weeks of the season, have seen the eliminated team go 105-69-4 against the spread. This is a high total game, so that brings me to Bryce Young’s favorite target in a plus matchup against Dee Alford. Adam Thielen just continues to produce and Atlanta is a pass funnel defense. Atlanta has allowed the 11th most WR receiving yards on the season and allowed the most TDs to WRs. Carolina is banged up on defense but they aren’t giving up on the season. Atlanta is a Cover 3 defense, primarily; but, over the past month, Atlanta has used less Cover 3 compared to their season average and increased their use of Cover 1 and Cover 4. Thielen is much more effective against Cover 1 and Cover 4.
In Summary
These were spots that jumped off the page for me. If you have any questions for me about the process or other players, my name is TreyJ989 in the channels. Feel free to tag me. Let’s make some bold moves this week!