10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 18 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 17 Recap:

Draftkings:

Jordan Love – 14 pts | QB12 | 2.25x value

Alexander Mattison – 4.8 pts | RB100 | 0.85x value

Jerome Ford – 2.2 pts | RB1000| INJURED

Jordan Addison – 18.9 pts | WR12 | 3x value 

Tyler Conklin – 21.7 pts | TE1 | 7.5x value

Fanduel:

Bryce Young – 16.92 pts| QB10 | 2.4x value

Breece Hall – 5.8 pts | RB18 | 0.7x value

Romeo Doubs – 11.3 pts | RB22| 2x value

Josh Downs – 3.97pts | WR45 | 0.6x value 

Malik Nabers – 35.6 pts | WR1 |  4.6x Value 

2.06x on Fanduel  and 3.4x on Draftkings without Jerome Ford who was hurt early in the 1st quarter on Sunday. Both sites are skewed a bit though because we HIT THE NUMBER ONE PLAYER at WR and TE!!

Conklin had a monster of a game, with a late TD catch to put him up over 20 DK points while Malik Nabers just absolutely dominated. Heck he probably wants Drew Lock under center next year after that performance!

It was interesting though for me that couple guys that we listed here had teammates in the same position who had massive performances. Alexander Mattison was usurped by Ameer Abdullah. Downs (who got mega chalky once Flacco was starting) was outperformed by Alec Pierce. So what that tells me is that the process is right, but the outcome wasn’t. Keep doing what we’re doing and we will keep smashing and hopefully getting MORE of the top end performances like Conklin and Nabers.

One thing to always note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Mac Jones QB Jacksonville Jaguars 

Ownership: 3.07%

Salary: DK $5200

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

I’m going back to a guy that I wrote up in this spot a few weeks ago, and while yes he is a backup, which is en vogue this week, he’s one that’s not just making a spot start, as he’s played for a few weeks now and looked great.

Mac Jones is the backup for me this week as he takes on a Colts defense that absolutely got destroyed by Drew Lock and Malik Nabers last week. I’m expecting more of the same from Mac Jones and his rookie WR sensation, Brian Thomas.

Floor is great, and the ceiling is super high in this matchup that could go well over the total of 45. Neither team has anything to play for, and sometimes that leads to a high scoring game, as teams AND players try to ball out for the next contract.

Jones has been poised, and done a nice job taking care of the ball while also threading the needle to Thomas for big gains. Love this spot and while others chase backups like Jimmy G and Josh Dobbs, Jones is the guy for me this week.

J.K. Dobbins RB Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: DK 3%

Salary: DK $6300

Dobbins has an incentive to hit at 58 yards this week and I think he gets that and more against the Raiders in a rivalry matchup. He looked great in his return from injury last week against a Pats team that stacked the box against him, grinding it out for 70+ yards.

Banking on the incentives driving him here, but there’s always the possibility they could rest him.

Jalen McMillan WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: DK 4.32%

Salary: DK $5100

Love the Bucs in this game. Need a win to secure the playoffs, and while everyone will target Evans for the incentives he has in his contract, give me a super cheap and low owned McMillan.

6 TD’s in his last 4 games as the Bucs continue to ball out and put up massive scores. Cheap leverage like this is always something I’m looking for in GPP.

Olamide Zaccheus WR Washington Commanders

Ownership: 3.16%

Salary: DK $4500.

Zaccheus the Tax Collector has looked outstanding the last two weeks for the Commanders, and while there is potential that they rest some key guys, I don’t think that will be Zaccheus and in fact it may benefit him as they potentially rest guys like McLaurin who take targets from Zaccheus anyways.

MEGA cheap and lets you fit in studs who are expensive/high owned from other gams.

Noah Fant TE Seattle Seahawks

Ownership: DK 2.92%

Salary: DK $3700

Seahawks need to win and about a million other things to happen this week for them to get into the playoffs but it’s definitely possible.

Regardless I think that Fant is a great play at TE as he’s seeing decent volume in an offense that’s throwing the ball. Similar to Ty Conklin call last week, we are just going with a cheaper TE who has upside due to the volume. Wish he was a touch cheaper, but still a great play. TE is a wasteland and I ain’t chasing one of these higher priced guys (though Bowers might be worth it).

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Joe Flacco QB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: FD 2.6%

Salary: FD $7000

Everyone’s favorite cheap play last week is now trending towards lower ownership in an even better matchup against the Jags in a game that I think could potentially shoot out.

Looked great last week against the Giants, yeah he had some turnovers but that’s to be expected. With a full week of practice as the named starter he should be better prepared.

Stack him up with Alec Pierce, Josh Downs (bounce back incoming at LOW ownership after the chalk bust last week) or Michael Pittman. Run it back with Brian Thomas who has been elite all season.

Also get a bit of correlated leverage here as Johnathan Taylor is projecting to be one of the highest owned players on the slate.

Ray Davis RB Buffalo Bills

Ownership: FD: 7.8%

Salary: FD $6200

The Bills are going to sit their starters for the most part on Sunday against the Patriots and the assumption here is that Davis is going to get the majority of the work over Ty Johnson, because of Johnson’s role as the 3rd down back/2 minute drill guy for the Bills when the starters are in.

Davis has looked good in his limited amount of work this season and against a Pats defense that has been gashed by the run all season, he has the potential to smash.

Ameer Abdullah WR Green Bay Packers

Ownership: FD 3.92%

Salary: FD $6300

Got all the work last week for the Raiders when I assumed would be Mattison, and he looked great doing it. 20 carries 115 yards and had 3 receptions to boot.

The issue here is that he picked up a foot injury and missed practice Wednesday. The assumption is that he’ll be good to go, but if not then I like just straight flipping to Mattison.

Tough matchup against the Chargers but think he can get there on volume alone again if he’s healthy.

Jalen Nailor WR Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: FD 0.25%

Salary: FD $4900

With so much attention being paid to Addison/Jefferson, the WR3 for the Vikings has been racking up targets and receptions. 5 last week for 81 and a TD.

In a game that should shoot out, we can get a mega cheap receiver who is on the field a ton, and that the QB trusts in a must win game. Love everything about this play.

Adam Thielen WR Carolina Panthers

Ownership: FD 6.57%

Salary: FD: $6400

Thielen has been a resurgent Bryce Young’s favorite target and while they are only playing for pride this week, I think this is a blow up spot for him as they try to carry some momentum into the offseason.

Legitimate double digit target upside and if Young throws a TD it’s likely going to be to Thielen. Seems like he’s having fun again on the field, which is huge as he looked FRUSTRATED to start the season.

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