Week 15 Waiver Wire – NFL Fantasy Football – 2024

DFS Army’s Gthom goes over the waiver wire targets for this week. These waiver wire targets are normally available in 50-percent of ESPN leagues.

Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call X, or Twitter, or whatever it’s called @GarettThomas.

 

QUARTERBACKS

Caleb Williams (CHI) – 48%

Williams came crashing back to earth after completing 17 of 23 passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns while adding four carries for 27 yards and losing one fumble against the 49ers. His 14.1 fantasy points rank as QB16 overall for Week 15 (prior to Monday Night Football). This performance follows a three-game stretch where Williams averaged 23.1 fantasy points heading into Week 14.

In Week 15, managers who stream quarterbacks can confidently place Williams into their lineups against the Vikings. Williams has already proven he can handle Minnesota’s defense, as evidenced by his Week 12 performance: he completed 32 of 47 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns while adding four carries for 39 yards on the ground.

While Williams is a streaming option, there is also merit to stashing him. If he performs well against the Vikings, his next game is against the Lions—a team he scored 26.1 fantasy points against earlier this season. In Week 17, Williams faces the Seahawks, presenting another beatable matchup.

Jameis Winston (CLE) – 9%

Facing the Steelers is never easy, and Jameis Winston experienced that firsthand in Week 14. He completed 24 of 41 passes for 212 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, adding four carries for 28 yards on the ground. This totaled 15.3 fantasy points. While bad games happen for backup quarterbacks, Winston has been productive since taking over as the starter. He is averaging 21.8 fantasy points per game, the fifth-highest average since Week 8. Over that span, Winston ranks as QB8 in total fantasy points scored.

Winston’s role should remain central to Cleveland’s offensive strategy, too. The Browns boast the league’s highest passing rate and are second in passes per game, ensuring Winston continues to see elite volume for a quarterback.

In Week 15, the Browns face the Kansas City Chiefs at home. The Chiefs have allowed 19.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over their last five contests, up from their season average of 16.9. Following this, Winston will have another favorable matchup against the Bengals.

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) – 40%

The infamous Aaron Rodgers put up a solid day against the Dolphins in Week 14, finishing with 17.5 fantasy points. He did this on the back of 27 of 39 passing for 339 yards and one touchdown. This was his best fantasy day since Week 9 against Houston.

His next game will be against the Jaguars, who have been atrousious to opposing quarterbacks. Jacksonville allows 21.4 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, only two other teams allow a higher average. Additionally, the Jags have allowed the third-most passing touchdowns to the quarterback position with 24 allowed this season, compared to their five interceptions.

The issue with playing Rodgers is he does not carry upside. Because of this, Rodgers should not be used in situations where managers feel they will be heavily trailing. While Rodgers does not have a knack for winning weeks for his managers, he certainly can do enough to get you to the next round of your playoffs. He is averaging 16.2 fantasy points over his last three contests.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

Patrick Taylor Jr (SF) – 4%

The “next man up” saying cannot be overstated for the 49ers. Taylor entered the game as the backup to Isaac Guerendo, who is normally the 49ers’ third-string running back, and Guerendo left early in the fourth quarter due to a foot injury. Taylor delivered an impressive result in just one quarter of action. He finished with seven carries for 25 yards and one touchdown, totaling 8.5 PPR points.

Taylor will take a step back if Guerendo is healthy enough to play in Week 15. However, the insurance Taylor provides to fantasy managers as an RB2 or FLEX option, should Guerendo miss, cannot be overstated.

The 49ers face the Rams in Week 15 on Thursday Night Football. Los Angeles is allowing 21.2 Half-PPR points per game to opposing running backs this season, ranking 13th in the NFL. Additionally, the Rams limited the 49ers to 12.8 Half-PPR points in their Week 3 matchup in San Francisco, although that was with running back Jordan Mason rather than Guerendo or Taylor.

Brealon Allen (NYJ) – 49%

Some fantasy managers waited their entire season to start Allen, and it was not a bad trial run against the Dolphins in Week 14. He finished with 11 carries for 43 yards on the ground and four catches for 38 yards receiving, which turned into 12.1 PPR points. The disappointment came when fantasy managers watched the Jets’ third-string running back, Isaiah Davis, get the lone rushing touchdown and finish with 15.7 PPR points. Allen played 37 snaps and Davis played 36. This highlights the volatility Allen will carry as long as he is the lead back in this committee.

It’s also worth noting that Breece Hall, the starting running back for the Jets, could be dealing with an injury issue that may or may not shut his season down. A quick search on the ‘ole Google reveals just how much the rumors are swirling, which will continue unless Hall plays this week. The issue revolves around a recent knee injury on his reconstructed knee.

If Hall misses again, Allen is a great RB2 option for managers. Allen is technically the starter while Hall is out, but there is a chance the Jets’ coaching staff could simply “ride the hot hand.” If you missed out on Allen in your league, shoot for Davis on waivers—keeping in mind Davis is a deep-league FLEX option or a desperation play in shallower leagues.

Tank Bigsby (JAC) – 36%

Bigsby is clearly the best running back in the Jacksonville backfield, and he proved it once again in Week 14 against a stingy Titans defense. The second-year running back finished with 18 carries for 55 rushing yards, one catch for seven yards, and one touchdown, generating 13.2 PPR points. While these statistics may not seem like much, they are more fantasy points than his teammate Travis Etienne has logged in a single week since Week 2, when Etienne scored 14.8 PPR points. Bigsby has also logged PPR scores as high as 23.8 and 25.9 this season.

The Jaguars’ offense is severely limited by their backup quarterback, Mac Jones. While Jones does not ooze talent, he is good enough to play competitively against bad teams, and that is exactly what the Jaguars’ schedule has moving forward. The Jags face the Jets, Raiders, and Titans again, respectively. The Jets have allowed 21.0 Half-PPR points per game to running backs since Week 7. The Raiders have allowed 21.1 Half-PPR points per game to the position, and it is clear that Bigsby can produce against the Titans, as he did so in Week 14.

Isaiah Davis (NYJ) – 3%

Davis’ fantasy value carries the most optimism in the Jets’ backfield. While the second-string running back, Braelon Allen will never go away, he and Davis split snaps evenly, 37 to 36, respectively. Despite that, Davis scored the lone touchdown and finished with 10 carries for 40 yards and one touchdown on the ground, adding three catches for 27 yards as a receiver. These statistics totaled 15.7 PPR points, which was more than Allen’s fantasy output of 12.1 PPR points.

If Breece Hall’s injury is as bad as the internet rumors suggest, he could be in jeopardy of getting shut down. The issue revolves around a recent knee injury on his reconstructed knee. While a shutdown would be unfortunate for Hall, Davis’ fantasy stock would sharply rise.

If Hall misses again, Davis is an optimistic deep-league FLEX candidate. If the Jets’ coaching staff “rides the hot hand,” it may be a good day for Davis. Managers need to proceed with caution, as Braelon Allen has more talent and draft stock invested in him than Isiah Davis does. Admittedly, that might not matter when New York knows the organization will likely experience turnover throughout its ranks, including at the quarterback position.

Sincere McCormick (LV) – 11%

After playing 38 percent of snaps in Week 13, McCormick saw a significant usage bump to 61 percent in Week 14. He finished with 10.9 PPR points on 15 carries for 78 yards on the ground and two catches for 11 yards as a receiver. Ameer Abdullah, the other running back available in Week 14, played 39 percent of snaps and failed to score more than 1.0 fantasy point. This indicates McCormick is trending positively with his coaching staff.

The issue with trusting McCormick—aside from being a running back on a team that often plays from behind—is that the Raiders’ coaching staff is known for feeding whoever performs best on any given day. This creates volatility and opportunities for other backs on the roster to take over. Additionally, Alexander Mattison, the presumed leader of the depth chart, is expected to return, which could further complicate McCormick’s role. On the other hand, McCormick’s strong performances over the last two weeks may have earned the coaching staff’s trust moving forward.

No matter how you view McCormick, he should be considered no more than a FLEX option in 12-team leagues and deeper. Mattison will also be factored into the equation as well, should he suit up. If Mattison is ruled out, McCormick’s role may come with less volatility, but the Raiders are rarely projected favorites—a negative correlation for running backs. The Raiders face the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints over the next three weeks. Both the Jaguars and Saints are one of the six worst teams at defending the running back position.

Alexander Mattison (LV) – 40%

After missing the last three games due to an ankle injury, Mattison should be healthy enough to suit up against Atlanta in Week 15. Anytime you play a Raiders running back, you are playing Russian roulette because the play can quickly go sideways on you since they heavily rotate their running back roles, and Vegas constantly trails in their games.

This season, Mattison has not been the best on the ground, showcasing his inefficiency with a 3.3 yards per carry average on 97 rushing attempts, 320 rushing yards and three touchdowns. But he has thrived in the Raiders’ passing attack, where he has 25 receptions for 245 receiving yards and one touchdown.

While it may feel gross, Mattison has averaged 10.8 PPR points this season, which is the 34th highest average at the running back position. These averages carry FLEX consideration, but managers should only play Mattison if they are desperate, especially since other players have emerged in this Raiders’ backfield during Mattison’s two-game absence—see Sincere McCormick above.

Running Back Handcuffs with Low-End FLEX Usage

• Tyjae Spears (TEN)
• Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
• Blake Corum (LAR)

Running Backs to Stash Only

• Trey Benson (ARI)
• Ray Davis (BUF)
• Cam Akers (MIN)
• Kendre Miller (NO)

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Adam Thielen (CAR) – 39%

Father Time continues to display his elite fantasy prowess, finishing with nine catches for 102 yards against an incredibly tough Eagles secondary. Thielen totaled 19.2 PPR points. Just last week, the 34-year-old receiver logged 23.9 PPR points on eight catches for 99 yards and one touchdown. Now that Thielen is healthy, it is clear he is the de facto WR1 for Carolina.

Thielen will face the Dallas Cowboys next, and while the Cowboys have struggled defensively this season, their secondary appears to finally be fully healthy (potentially confirmed in Week 14’s Monday Night Football). Despite Dallas’ secondary receiving reinforcements, Thielen remains a must-start every week. The Panthers’ passing offense finally seems to be clicking, and Thielen will continue to be a critical part of it.

After Dallas, the Panthers will face the Cardinals in Week 16 and the Buccaneers in Week 17. He is the top receiver to grab off of waivers heading into his game against the Cowboys.

Cedric Tillman (CLE) – 36%

After becoming a fantasy darling in Weeks 7 through 9, Tillman has fallen off the fantasy radar. Since Cleveland’s bye week, Tillman has struggled to generate fantasy points, but his usage remains strong. In Weeks 11 and 12, he finished with 7.7 and 2.8 PPR points, seeing eight and four targets, respectively.

Tillman has flashed his ceiling during a three-game stretch this season where he averaged 22.1 PPR points. In that span, he recorded 85 receiving yards, 10.6 targets, 7.0 receptions, and 1.0 touchdown per game. The Cleveland offense has been throwing the ball frequently, with the variance spread across all their pass catchers, meaning this issue is not exclusive to Tillman.

Tillman’s usage will likely continue once he returns, but he will have to contend with Jerry Jeudy, who is scorching hot for fantasy right now. Tillman will face the Chiefs and Bengals, both of whom have allowed significant points to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks. Tillman helping managers win championships as a FLEX option is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Elijah Moore (CLE) – 24%

Since Winston took over under center, Moore’s fantasy output has shown a pattern of inconsistency. Beginning in Week 7, his PPR scores are as follows: 10.1, 16.5, 5.8, 18.6, 5.1, 19.2, and 6.4.

Unlike other receiver options in this article, Moore carries a decent floor for a waiver-wire pickup. He is averaging 8.2 targets per game with Winston at quarterback. Where Moore struggles is unlocking his fantasy ceiling. Despite single-week scores of 16.5, 18.6, and 19.2, Moore has logged just one touchdown this season, which came in Week 6. For managers chasing points, Moore is likely not the ideal player to slot into lineups. Adding to the uncertainty is the anticipated return of Cedric Tillman.

Moore and the Browns’ schedule is favorable over the next two weeks. They face the Chiefs and Bengals, two of the worst teams at defending the receiver position over the last five weeks. Additionally, the Chiefs have been among the league’s worst at defending slot receivers since Week 8.

Romeo Doubs (GB) – 42%

Doubs’ fantasy profile is well-documented at this point of the season. Despite missing three and a half games, Doubs is the number one receiver in Green Bay in terms of being on the field. He is second among Packer receivers with 512 snaps played this season.

The issue is Doubs only carries an 18.7 percent target share in an offense that runs the ball at the third highest rate. Additionally, Doubs has had single-digit fantasy points in seven of his 10 games—and he has yet to reach the double-digit mark since Week 8 against Jacksonville. This makes Doubs volatile and hard to predict as to when he should be played by fantasy managers.

Even with the lack of targets, Doubs can provide a fantasy spark that few others can when comparing him to other waiver-wire players. He has two instances of 17 or more PPR points, and this Packers’ offense is efficient. They rank fifth in the NFL for yards per pass, seventh in points per game, eighth in touchdowns per game and 11th in passing yards per game.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) – 48%

After scoring a touchdown in seven of his last eight games, Westbrook-Ikhine disappointed fantasy managers with one catch for 19 yards, generating 2.9 PPR points against a Jaguars defense that allows 37.4 PPR points per game. This performance likely didn’t surprise savvy fantasy managers, as Westbrook-Ikhine’s floor is notoriously low, and he seemingly needs a touchdown to deliver value.

While Westbrook-Ikhine struggled against the Jaguars, there was no indication that his role changed. In fact, he logged the most snaps among the receiver group for the third consecutive week. Since Week 6, Westbrook-Ikhine is tied for the 38th-best fantasy points per game average among receivers and ranks as WR19 overall in total fantasy points scored during this timeframe.

Westbrook-Ikhine remains a viable option against the Bengals, Colts and Jaguars over the next three weeks. Each of these teams allows 33.5 PPR points or more to the wide receiver position per game.

Xavier Legette (CAR) – 36%

This write-up could have told a different story if Legette had hauled in his diving goal-line target in the closing minutes against the Eagles. Unfortunately, being “close” does not count in fantasy football, and Legette demonstrated that with his two catches for 39 yards on eight targets, generating 5.9 PPR points. Factoring in Adam Thielen’s recent two-game surge, the rookie receiver appears to be the clear WR2 for Bryce Young and the Panthers until further notice.

It’s no surprise when NFL teams shift their early-season narratives later in the year, especially young teams like the Panthers. However, Carolina should be taken more seriously among casual NFL viewers. This season, the Panthers have averaged 17.9 points per game (28th in the NFL), but over their last three game they have improved to 22.0 points per game (19^th). Additionally, Carolina’s offense has averaged 240.7 passing yards over their last three contests (compared to 186.8 across the season), ranking 14th during this stretch. Their 10.9 yards per completion (up from 9.2) is also 13th best over their last three games.

The Panthers’ offense has shed some of its early-season struggles and is clearly trending in the right direction, making Legette an intriguing option against the Cowboys’ secondary in Week 15. The Panthers will also face the Cardinals in Week 16 and the Buccaneers in Week 17.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO) – 23%

After scoring four touchdowns in three weeks, Valdes-Scantling finally fell back to earth in Week 14, finishing with four catches for 51 yards on seven targets and logging 9.1 PPR points. While Valdes-Scantling failed to score a touchdown, he did register seven targets which is the most in a single-game for him this season.

The downside is that starting quarterback Derek Carr broke his non-throwing hand will miss the remainder of the season. Carr not playing will cause this offense to take a hit. While the unit will regress with a backup quarterback, Valdes-Scantling is a stretch receiver who only needs one big catch to make value for his fantasy managers. Because of this, Valdes-Scantling remains a low-end, boom-or-bust, desperation option.

Jalen McMillan (TB) – 9%

Better late than never, say the many fantasy managers who flocked to roster and play McMillan in Week 8 following injured reserve stints from Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Fast forward to Week 14, and we finally have the breakout game many wanted earlier this season.

Against the Raiders, McMillan finished with four catches for 59 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets, generating 21.9 PPR points. His four receptions tied a season high, and his 59 receiving yards were also a season high. While McMillan is intriguing following his stat line, Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton are potential players who could siphon McMillan’s work at any time. Thus, McMillan’s 21.9 PPR performance should be viewed as an outlier for the time being.

McMillan can be played in Week 15 if you’re in a pinch, but fantasy managers should be heavily concerned about a repeatable performance with so many pass catchers involved for Tampa Bay. The Bucs will face the Chargers, Cowboys, and Panthers down the stretch, and if McMillan can get hot, he is in an offense that can sustain two WR1s. Tampa Bay, on a per-game basis, ranks third in total yards, fifth in total points per game and touchdowns scored per game, and sixth in passing yards per game.

Tim Patrick (DET) – 1%

Hello, Timmy Patrick! He greeted fantasy managers with an early Christmas gift, surging for 22.3 PPR points across six catches for 43 yards and two touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers. While this performance was impressive, it’s hard to trust Patrick moving forward due to his role in this offense.

Patrick has emerged as the WR3 on this team now that Khalif Raymond was placed on injured reserve last week. While he is the third, arguably fourth, priority in this passing attack, performances like this are not surprising given the efficiency of Detroit’s offense. The Lions rank first in team points per game, team touchdowns per game, and completion percentage, second in total yards per game, and fourth in yards per play, third-down conversion rate, and passing yards per game.

Patrick and the Lions will face a normally stingy Bills defense, but they allowed a whopping 62.5 Half-PPR points to the Rams’ receivers in Week 14—22.8 Half-PPR points above expectation. In another indoor game for the Bills, perhaps managers can follow the “smoke” for some fantasy “fire.”

Devaughn Vele (DEN) – 3%

Vele was humming a nice tune for fantasy managers during Weeks 10 through 12. During that stretch, Vele saw four or more targets in each game and recorded at least 39 receiving yards. Then Week 13 happened, and Vele finished with one catch for 16 yards on four targets, generating only 2.6 PPR points.

The rookie receiver is a PPR-format candidate only. In his nine appearances this season, he has logged just one touchdown catch. While Vele is third on his team in red-zone targets and tied for the second-most red-zone receptions, Courtland Sutton has commanded a 45 percent target share in the red zone this season. Sutton’s 18 red-zone targets dwarf those of all other Denver pass catchers.

This season, the rookie slot receiver carries per-game averages of 41.9 receiving yards, 5.0 targets, and 4.7 receptions. Facing the Colts in Week 15, Vele is a low-end option for managers in a pinch. The Colts have been stingy against opposing receivers over their last four games, so Vele will likely struggle to reach his perceived ceiling and may carry a lower than usual floor.

 

TIGHT ENDS

 

Juwan Johnson (NO) – 14%

This player saw some of the wind come out of his sails when it was announced that his quarterback, Derek Carr, would miss the remainder of the season due to a broken (non-throwing) hand. Johnson had been trending nicely over the last three games. In those contests, he averaged 11.9 PPR points per game, the 12th best mark during that span. He also saw 15 total targets, averaging five per game. Outside of Chris Olave, Johnson has caught the most passes in the red zone this season for the Saints, too.

Johnson and the Saints will face the Washington Commanders at home in Week 15. Heading into this contest, the Commanders have held opposing tight ends to an average Half-PPR score of 12.1 over their last four games, up from their season average of 9.2. Additionally, the Commanders have allowed 3.5 fantasy points above expectation to the position during this time.

While the tight end landscape is especially bleak this week, Johnson may be one of the best streaming options widely available. Although he will be catching passes from a backup, his matchup and opportunity put him in play.

Will Dissly (LAC) – 38% | Stone Smartt (LAC) – 0%

Dissly finished the first half with two catches for 19 yards before leaving with an injury. His backup, Stone Smartt, took over after halftime and posted a solid score of 8.4 PPR points on three catches for 54 yards. The extent of Dissly’s injury is unknown. Whoever starts at tight end for the Chargers will have merit as a fantasy play, especially if slot receiver Lance McConkey remains sidelined.

The Chargers will travel to take on the Bucs in Week 15, who are allowing 14.6 Half-PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, up from their season average of 12.2 points allowed. Dissly remains a low-end TE2 option with the potential for a big game. He flashed ceiling performances in Week 7 and Week 11, scoring 16.1 and 18.0 PPR points, respectively. If Dissly misses time, managers can assume Smartt would step in to pick up the slack.

Grant Calcaterra (PHI) – 2%

Managers were pleased with Calcaterra’s output, as he finished with three catches for 16 yards and one touchdown. Without the touchdown, it would have been a different day entirely for the backup tight end. Calcaterra is here to stay in the Eagles’ offense after Dallas Goedert was placed on season-ending injured reserve heading into Week 14.

The Eagles’ tight end position has not carried much of a premium. Removing Goedert’s 27.0-point Week 3 game—a performance when Goedert was the only healthy pass catcher for Philadelphia—he is averaging 8.4 PPR points per game, which ranks as TE19. During Weeks 6 through 9, when Goedert was unable to play, Calcaterra stepped in. Over that four-game stretch Calcaterra averaged 7.3 PPR points, ranking 24th among tight ends during that time, and was TE20 overall in total points scored.

Calcaterra’s next game is against the Steelers, who are allowing 12.9 PPR points per game to opposing tight ends—a middling amount compared to other teams. While Calcaterra will see usage, do not expect much from him. He should be viewed as a low-end TE2.