Week 14 Waiver Wire – NFL Fantasy Football – 2024

DFS Army’s Gthom goes over the waiver wire targets for this week. These waiver wire targets are normally available in 50-percent of ESPN leagues.

Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call X, or Twitter, or whatever it’s called @GarettThomas.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

Russell Wilson (PIT) – 43%

Dominating the air in Week 13 was Russell Wilson, who finished with 414 passing yards on 29 of 38, three touchdowns, and one interception. He scored 26.8 PPR points, and depending on your league format, he is either the QB1 or QB2 overall for Week 13.

The Steelers will take on division rival Cleveland Browns. Prior to their Monday Night Football game, the Browns had allowed an average of 30 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position over their last four games. Additionally, they have allowed 9.2 fantasy points above expectation, both metrics being league-worst.

Wilson continues to shine as the quarterback of the Steelers. Since becoming the starter in Week 7, he has averaged 17.8 fantasy points. His matchup against the Browns should yield solid fantasy production.

Caleb Williams (CHI) – 37%

Williams has turned the corner for fantasy managers. Over his last three games, he is averaging 23.1 fantasy points and 47.3 rushing yards. The combination of the passing game improving and Williams’ ability to use his legs makes him a different fantasy player than he was at the beginning of the season.

The rookie will undoubtedly face a tough matchup in Week 13 against the 49ers on the road. San Francisco is one of the toughest teams in the NFL, allowing 15.4 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per game.

Despite the difficult matchup, managers should consider Williams due to the limited quarterback options during a heavy BYE week. After the 49ers, the Bears will face the Vikings, Lions, and Seahawks.

Jameis Winston (CLE) – 9%

Despite the results of his Monday Night Football game against the Broncos, Winston is a quarterback to consider in Week 14 due to the large number of teams on BYE. Winston will be facing the Steelers, who just held him to 13.4 fantasy points in Week 12.

While the Steelers are not a team to pick on for fantasy quarterbacks, they are susceptible to giving up passing yards at a much higher rate than rushing yards. With a low 4.1 yards per rush (fifth lowest in the NFL) and 90.5 total rushing yards allowed (fourth lowest) to their opponents on average, the blueprint is clearly to throw the ball. This is further supported when seeing their 7.1 opponent yards per pass metric, which ranks 16th in the NFL, and their 220.5 opponent passing yards allowed, which ranks 21st worst.

Just last week, they gave up 20.2 fantasy points to Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, on the back of 309 passing yards and three touchdowns. While that stat line is ambitious for Winston, he ranks second in air yards per attempt, fourth in deep ball completion percentage, and sixth in QBR. These metrics highlight Winston’s efficiency despite leading the league in the second-most pass plays per game.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

Isaac Guerendo (SF) – 1%

Isaac Guerendo is a potential league-winner available to fantasy managers, and he would be worth utilizing all of your remaining FAAB in desperate or low-budget scenarios. Seasoned fantasy managers can quickly identify the 49ers’ running back position as interchangeably valuable for fantasy, no matter who the starter is. While replicating Christian McCaffrey’s usage is fool’s gold, a solid RB2 with RB1 upside is potentially in the cards.

Obviously, Guerendo’s true role and outlook remain a guess. It seems inevitable that the 49ers will add depth behind him, but even if they do, will it take much from Guerendo? The confidence you can carry with Guerendo is that in Week 8, when he played 63 percent of snaps, he finished with 14 carries for 85 yards and one touchdown and added three catches for 17 yards as a receiver, good for 19.6 PPR points. Additionally, he scored against the Bills in their snow-filled Week 13 game; Guerendo finished with four carries for 19 yards and one touchdown.

The rookie seems to be someone the 49ers can use in the running game and the passing game. He is worth a gamble with your FAAB investment due to his presumed role and opportunity within the 49ers’ offense.

Tank Bigsby (JAC) – 33%

Bigsby is finally healthy and able to contribute to this offense again. The problem is, he will be splitting with Travis Etienne, and in the near-term, it looks like his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, will be unavailable in Week 14.

On a more positive note, Bigsby is a very efficient player. He is top 10 in the NFL in juke rate, yards per touch, yards per carry, and yards created per touch. This is very interesting given the fact he has been the RB2 on his team for most of this season. He also carries value as a handcuff should Travis Etienne miss any additional time due to injury.

If Lawrence does not play, it would be very difficult to trust Bigsby. If Lawrence does suit up, Bigsby will have an opportunistic matchup against the Titans at home. The Titans are allowing 20.1 half-PPR points to opposing running backs over their last four games. Additionally, in Week 13, this Titans defense allowed two running backs to score 15 or more half-PPR points. Tennessee ranks 24^th in opponent rushing touchdowns per game, 27^th in opponent points per game and 29^th in opponent red zone scoring percentage.

Alexander Mattison (LV) – 47%

After missing the last two games due to an ankle injury, Mattison should be healthy enough to suit up against Tampa Bay in Week 14. Anytime you play a Raiders running back, you are playing Russian roulette because the play can quickly go sideways on you since they heavily rotate their running back roles, and they constantly trail in their games.

This season, Mattison has not been the best on the ground, showcasing his inefficiency with a 3.3 yards per carry average on 97 rushing attempts, 320 rushing yards and three touchdowns. But he has thrived in the Raiders’ passing attack, where he has 25 receptions for 245 receiving yards and one touchdown.

While it may feel gross, Mattison has averaged 10.8 PPR points this season, which is the 34th highest average at the running back position. This average carries FLEX consideration, but managers should only play Mattison if they are desperate, especially since other players have emerged in this Raiders’ backfield during Mattison’s two-game absence.

Kimani Vidal (LAC) – 11%

Vidal feels like a gross addition that desperate managers will need to make. He steps into fantasy relevancy after J.K. Dobbins landed on injured reserve heading into Week 13. In his first game following his promotion, he finished with four carries for 20 yards on the ground. It is worth noting that the Los Angeles offense looked bad as a whole, and the starter, Gus Edwards, continues to do very little with his workload. Edwards finished with six carries for 32 yards on the day.

The problem with Vidal is that it requires a full demotion of Gus Edwards, something that won’t happen since he is the veteran of the group. Thus, you are hoping that Vidal gets into the end zone or breaks off big plays. This seems unlikely, given Vidal’s 2.91 yards per carry average this season across 22 attempts.

The Chargers run the ball at the ninth-highest clip in the NFL, and they average one rushing touchdown per contest, which ranks 10th this season. While the Chargers’ running back position carries fantasy relevancy, his inefficiency may make it impossible for Vidal to step into a real fantasy role. He should remain on waivers unless managers are desperate and looking for someone with rest-of-season upside. Vidal carries that, but it seems highly unlikely we see that version of him.

Running Back Handcuffs with Low-End FLEX Usage

• Tyjae Spears (TEN)
• Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
• Blake Corum (LAR)
• Zach Charbonnet (SEA)

Running Backs to Stash Only

• Trey Benson (ARI)
• Ray Davis (BUF)
• Braelon Allen (NYJ)

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Adam Thielen (CAR) – 27%

The veteran showed no sign of his age, finishing with eight receptions for 99 yards and one touchdown. He very nearly had a second score, but it was later upheld as incomplete after a lengthy and inconclusive review. Despite the team’s dedication to utilizing its young players during a rebuild, Thielen has quickly found favor with the only person who matters: their quarterback, Bryce Young.

His team’s next matchup against the Eagles will surely be difficult. The Eagles are allowing 17 Half-PPR points to opposing wide receivers across their last eight contests, -9.9 fantasy points below expectation. Philly is coming off an emotional road win against the Ravens (potential letdown spot?), and the Panthers have been surging and playing very competitive football. Something will have to give, and if the Panthers want any chance of staying in the game, they will need to throw the ball to keep pace with the Eagles’ high-scoring offense.

Following their bout with the Eagles, Thielen’s schedule will include a great fantasy playoff stretch featuring games against Dallas, Arizona, and Tampa Bay.

Cedric Tillman (CLE) – 50%

After becoming a fantasy darling in Weeks 7 through 9, Tillman has fallen off the fantasy wagon. Since Cleveland’s BYE, Tillman has struggled to generate fantasy points, but his usage remains strong. In Weeks 11 and 12, he finished with 7.7 and 2.8 PPR points, respectively. He is also scheduled to miss his Week 13 game against the Broncos with a concussion. All of this makes Tillman a waiver casualty but an intriguing pickup this late into the fantasy season.

Tillman has flashed his ceiling, doing so earlier this season during a three-game stretch where he averaged 22.1 PPR points. In that span, he recorded 85 receiving yards, 10.6 targets, 7.0 receptions, and 1.0 touchdown per game. The Cleveland offense has been throwing the ball a ton, and the variance has spread across all their pass catchers, meaning this issue is not exclusive to Tillman. Furthermore, Browns quarterback Jameis Winston ranks second in air yards per attempt, fourth in deep ball completion percentage, and sixth in QBR. These metrics highlight Winston’s efficiency despite leading the league’s second-most team pass plays per game.

Tillman’s usage will continue once he returns, and fantasy managers will not find someone with this level of opportunity on waivers this late in the season. He will face a tough Steelers team in Week 14 before matchups against two struggling pass defenses in the Chiefs and Bengals. Tillman helping managers win championships as a FLEX option is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO) – 23%

Valdes-Scantling continues to get it done for fantasy managers instilling trust in him. He has three straight contests with at least one touchdown and double-digit PPR points. In Week 3, he finished with two receptions for 36 yards and one touchdown on three targets.

The issue with Valdes-Scantling is clearly his low floor. While he has consistently scored a touchdown over his last three games, he has only drawn an average of 3.0 targets, 2.3 receptions, and 77.3 yards per game. You can quickly see that if he does not catch a touchdown during this stretch, his fantasy outlook is much different. However, Valdes-Scantling has been a scoring machine of late, and sometimes riding the hot hand can lead to fantasy goodness in the box score.

His schedule will only entice managers to trust Valdes-Scantling further as it features unimpressive defenses against fantasy receivers, such as the Giants and Commanders.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) – 20%

It seems silly that I have been writing about Westbrook-Ikhine as long as I have, yet he continues to be widely available in fantasy. Westbrook-Ikhine ended his Week 13 game against the Commanders with three receptions for 61 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets, which generated 21.1 PPR points.

Since Week 6, Westbrook-Ikhine has averaged one touchdown per game and only failed to score a touchdown in one of those contests. In addition, during this stretch, he is the WR25 in fantasy points per game and WR13 in total overall points at the position. Simply crazy because not one fantasy manager would have guessed that—that is how quiet Westbrook-Ikhine’s run has been for fantasy.

Westbrook-Ikhine now enters a schedule made of fantasy gold as he faces four teams who struggle at defending the receiver position: the Jaguars, Bengals, Colts, and Jaguars (again). Each of these teams ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to the receiver position. Westbrook-Ikhine can very easily continue producing when looking at this stretch of opponents.

Devaughn Vele (DEN) – 6%

Writing this before his Week 13 Monday Night Football game against the Browns, but Vele is averaging 12.8 PPR points over his last three games. Over this sample, he has averaged 0.3 touchdowns, 4.6 receptions, and 61.6 receiving yards per game. The Broncos’ offense has been firing on all cylinders recently, averaging 27 points per game over their last three contests. Vele carries most of his value in PPR-only league formats as he only has one touchdown in eight games and averages 45.1 receiving yards per contest this season.

Romeo Doubs (GB) – 48%

Doubs’ fantasy profile is well-documented at this point of the season. Despite missing two and a half games, Doubs is the number one receiver in Green Bay in terms of being on the field. He leads all Packers receivers with 512 snaps played this season.

The issue is he only carries an 18.7% target share in an offense that runs the ball at the fourth highest rate. Additionally, Doubs has had single-digit fantasy points in seven of his 10 games—and he has yet to reach the double-digit mark since Week 8 against Jacksonville. This makes Doubs volatile and hard to predict as to when he should be played by fantasy managers.

Even with the lack of targets, Doubs can provide a fantasy spark that few others can when comparing him to other waiver-wire players. He has two instances of 17 or more PPR points, and this Packers’ offense is efficient. They rank third in the NFL for yards per pass, and eighth in passing yards per game, points per game, and touchdowns per game.

Elijah Moore (CLE) – 13%

Writing this prior to his Monday Night Football game against the Broncos, Moore has been averaging 11.2 PPR points per game since Week 7. While this average suggests he is a reasonable FLEX player, Moore carries volatility and will be irrelevant on certain weeks. Despite this, he has seen no fewer than five targets in a single game since Week 7, and he is averaging eight targets per contest during that time.

Moore’s upcoming schedule includes games against Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Cincinnati over the next three weeks. The Steelers have been tough against opposing receivers, but the same cannot be said for the Chiefs and Bengals lately, two of the worst teams in the NFL against fantasy receivers over the last three weeks.

Moore remains a volatile fantasy player in Week 14 but can be used by teams in a pinch.

Xavier Legette (CAR) – 36%

Legette will continue to be an option for FLEX consideration. Managers should prioritize his teammate, Adam Thielen, over Legette; however, if Legette is available he could start generating better fantasy outcomes based on his consistent recent usage. He has averaged 9.6 PPR points since Week 6, ranking 53rd in the NFL, but has not found the end zone since Week 9.

It will be hard to trust Legette against a difficult Eagles secondary in Week 14. The Eagles are allowing 17 Half PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers across their last eight contests, -9.9 fantasy points below expectation. The schedule opens up for him in Week 15 when he faces the Cowboys, followed by the Cardinals and Buccaneers.

Tim Patrick (DET) – 1%

An injured reserve stint for Kalif Raymond has moved Patrick into the fantasy realm. While Patrick will be WR3 on the depth chart, he may be the fourth or fifth pass-catching option within this offense. In his first game as the WR3 for the Lions, he finished with two receptions for 48 yards on three targets against the Bears. For 2024, Patrick is averaging 1.9 receptions and 27.8 receiving yards per game.

Patrick is a deep-league FLEX consideration but should be avoided in starting lineups for normal 10 and 12-team leagues. His new opportunity finds him on the field, and that has value because the Lions’ offense is first in touchdowns per game and yards per pass, fifth in passing yards per game, and sixth in red zone scoring percentage.

Parker Washington (JAC) – 1%

With a patchwork receiving corps, the Jaguars’ offense is seeing new faces emerge into the fantasy conversation. Parker Washington is the new player to discuss following his Week 13 finish with two catches for 48 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets. This output was good for 24.3 PPR points, currently ranking as the WR3 overall for Week 13 (prior to Monday Night Football). Whilte Parker is the WR2 on the depth chart, he is likely the third-option as a pass catcher. Despite this, his role is relevant for fantasy moving forward.

For Washington to be a reliable fantasy option, he must have Trevor Lawrence as his quarterback. That seems doubtful since Lawrence entered concussion protocol. Typically, under the new protocol, players miss at least one week, but sometimes they heal in time for their next game. Their schedule of the Titans, Jets, Raiders and Titans again, is one of the easiest in the NFL.

 

TIGHT ENDS

 

Will Dissly (LAC) – 33%

Dissly was the victim of common variance at the tight end position. While the entire Chargers offense struggled to score points on a short week, Dissly was held catchless on one target. He did not log any fantasy points in a week for the first time this season.

Managers need to have a short memory when it comes to most tight ends, and Dissly is no exception. His next contest will be a good opportunity to get back on track. Especially since rookie darling Ladd McConkey is banged up with a knee injury. Dissly’s usage would certainly grow if McConkey missed.

Lastly, the Chargers’ tight end will face the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing 17 PPR points per game across the 2024 season. That mark is the second-highest in the NFL, trailing only the Carolina Panthers.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) – 42%

Since Week 10, Freiermuth has found consistency in his offense. He is averaging 10.7 PPR points during that span and has found the end zone twice. In Week 13, the veteran tight end finished with six catches for 68 yards and one touchdown on seven targets, generating 18.8 PPR points — his best fantasy week in 2024.

His next game is against the Browns, who are quite friendly to opposing tight ends. In their last four games (prior to Monday Night Football), the Browns have allowed 12.9 Half PPR points per game and 2.2 Half PPR points above expectation to the position. Both metrics rank in the bottom third of the NFL.

Freiermuth, like most tight ends, may disappear on occasion. However, his recent showings in the box score, coupled with his favorable matchup, make him a strong option for managers in Week 14.

Noah Gray (KC) – 7%

The usage seems to continue for TE2 Noah Gray. His recent fantasy showings in this Kansas City offense highlight his trending fantasy profile. Over the last three games, Gray has caught four passes in each game and averaged five targets per contest during that time.

Where he’s really emerged is as a red zone weapon, scoring four tuddies in this three-game sample. He has seen four red zone targets in those three games, and two of those targets came inside the five-yard line. These high-value targets are exactly what you are hunting for when streaming a tight end.

His upcoming schedule will feature a mixed bag of tough and favorable games for the tight end position, facing the Chargers, Browns, Texans, and Steelers down the stretch. While Gray has been utilized a ton in the red zone of late, his position as a TE2 within his offense makes him highly susceptible to volatility on a week-to-week basis, no different than most tight ends.