Welcome back to Part the Cloud, where we dive deep into defensive coverage schemes and explore how we can exploit them to unearth hidden gem wide receivers. Let’s break it down and look at what worked—and what didn’t—during Week 12 and the Thanksgiving slate.
Gotta Know Where You’ve Been…
Week 12 Review: Performance Breakdown
Here’s a quick glance at the results from my Week 12 and Thanksgiving recommendations:
| Player | DKFP | DKFP Multiplier | FDFP | FDFP Multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 11.8 | ~2x | 9.3 | 1.4x |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 0.8x | 3 | 0.5x |
| Troy Franklin | 5.1 | 1.5x | 4.1 | 0.8x |
| Jaylen Waddle | 31.4 | 5.9x! | 27.4 | 4.6x! |
| Jalen McMillan | 2.1 | 0.5x | 1.6 | 0.3x |
| KaVontae Turpin | 9.5 | 2.9x | 7.5 | 1.6x |
| Darius Slayton | 2.8 | 0.6x | 1.8 | 0.3x |
| Christian Watson | 8.7 | 1.8x | 7.7 | 1.3x |
Week 12 Recap: Hits and Misses
- Misses: Tyler Lockett, Troy Franklin, and Jalen McMillan all had lackluster performances, combining for just 5 catches on 9 targets. Not great.
- Hits: Jameson Williams continues to show upside with 7 targets. He remains a high-risk, high-reward option. Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle was the standout, putting up 8 receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown, delivering in a big way as expected.
- Thanksgiving Performers:
- KaVontae Turpin impressed with 5 targets on 9 routes and 4 catches for 53 yards.
- Darius Slayton saw 6 targets, but only managed 2 catches.
- Christian Watson had a couple of explosive plays, totaling 67 yards, but struggled to convert the rest of his opportunities.
All in all, there were a couple of flashes, but some consistency is still lacking.
…To Know Where You’re Going
This Week’s Hidden Gems
For this week’s slate, we have two intriguing plays to consider. While I generally avoid focusing on high-ownership receivers, it’s worth noting that many of the chalkier receivers are in excellent spots. Let’s break it down:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- DK Price: $6300 | FD Price: $7700
- Projected Ownership: DK: 6.61%, FD: 3.57%
JSN is one of my favorite value plays this week, especially on DraftKings where his price stands out. This is a great matchup for him as Seattle will likely pass frequently in a competitive game. Smith-Njigba has been on fire against Cover 1 and Cover 4 defenses, which happen to be two of the most commonly used schemes by the Jets.
Though New York’s defense does tend to limit scoring opportunities inside the 10-yard line, JSN’s volume and matchup against a top-tier coverage system are too good to pass up. If he finds the end zone, he could have a monster day. Even in a low-scoring game with the lowest total on the slate, JSN still has strong potential.
Calvin Austin
- DK Price: $3300 | FD Price: $5400
- Projected Ownership: DK: 2.28%, FD: 1.35%
Calvin Austin may not have flashed consistently this season, but his recent uptick in usage makes him an intriguing option. Over the past 5 weeks, his involvement in the offense has grown, and this matchup against Cincinnati presents a lot of value.
The Bengals primarily use single-high safety looks, particularly Cover 3, but have recently run it at a bottom-10 rate. Austin thrives against Cover 4 and Cover 6, making him a perfect fit for exploiting Cincinnati’s defensive tendencies. He excels at running post and corner routes, which are lethal against two-high safety looks.
At this price point and with the potential for a big play, Austin is one of my favorite sleeper picks.
In Summary
These are the two players that stand out for me this week based on their matchups, pricing, and recent form. If you have any questions or want to discuss further, feel free to tag me in the channels—I’m always happy to chat about strategy. Let’s make some bold moves and maximize those returns!
Good luck this week!
— TreyJ989