10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 17 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 16 Recap:

Draftkings:

Mac Jones- 13.88 pts | QB13 | 2.67x value

Devon Achane – 34 pts | RB3 | 4.6x value

Aaron Jones Sr. – 12.3 pts | RB19 | 1.92x value

Dyami Brown – 8.6 pts | WR100 | 2.52x value 

Mike Gesicki – 3.4 pts | TE20 | 1x value

Fanduel:

Aaron Rodgers – 12.84 pts| QB16 | 1.8x value

Cooper Rush – 15.28 pts | QB15 | 2.2x value

Craig Reynolds – 2.8 pts | RB1000 | 0.7x value

Cooper Kupp – 3.9 pts | W1000 | 0.5x value 

Jalen McMillan – 14.2 pts | WR18 |  2.4x Value 

1.52x on Fanduel  and 2.53x on Draftkings…somehow we were better than last week on FD, albeit not by much. A couple big swings and misses, but we did connect on a few home runs on guys like Devon Achane.

The big thing that connected for me again this week was that a cheap RB, even in a limited role, can be a smart play because of what it lets you do with the rest of your lineup. This week I was able to play Craig Reynolds (who struggled to get touches) and was able to play Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson, which got me across the cash line. And while my motto is first or last I ain’t here to min cash’ a mediocre performance from Reynolds could have really vaulted me up the leaderboards, but was instead able to get a small cash/profit with him doing basically nothing.

One thing to always note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Jordan Love QB Green Bay Packers

Ownership: 5.46%

Salary: DK $6200

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

I’m a diehard Vikings fan. I bleed purple and gold. That being said though I don’t see them through rose colored glasses and I know that the secondary is a huge issue here. Do I think the Vikings win? Yes duh (Ok maybe thats rose colored glasses). I do think this game absolutely shoots out though.

Love is going to have to throw it a ton here as the Vikings have one of the best run defenses in the NFL so the potential is there for a monster.

Reeds a stud. Doubs is a stud. Watson sucks but he’s hurt. Kraft is legit across the middle. Any of these guys work. I like a +2 because I think for Love to be the nuts GPP QB he has to drag at least two pass catchers with him, AND guys like Doubs are so cheap that it makes a ton of sense to get two in there. My favorite is Love+Doubs+Kraft with Jettas or Addison on the run back.

Alexander Mattison RB Las Vegas Raiders

Ownership: DK 6.5%

Salary: DK $5600

Former Vikings great Alex Mattison gets to go up against the Saints who couldn’t stop the Packers 3rd or 4th string RB’s on Monday night.

Ameer Abdullah is lurking, but Mattison looked great last week and I expect him to smash in this matchup. Love the price tag/ownershiop combo and what it lets you do with the rest of your lineup.

Jerome Ford RB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 3.1%

Salary: DK $5900

Am I missing something? Why is Ford A) so cheap and B) so low owned. Makes no sense to me. I get that the Dolphins defense is decent against the run, but Ford is getting all the volume and with a terrible QB at the helm he should see even more in this matchup.

He’s a lock and load play in all formats for me this week.

Jordan Addison WR Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: 7.6%

Salary: DK $6300.

Everyone is going to play JJettas in this rivalry matchup, and rightfully so, the guy has been on an absolute tear and he’s uncoverable, but don’t sleep on Addison.

He’s been a TD machine this year and with the tough Packers secondary paying more attention to Jettas, I think Addison is sitting on a huge game.

Tyler Conklin TE New York Jets

Ownership: DK 2.39%

Salary: DK $2900

Cheap TE who his getting a ton of usage of late. Can’t really go wrong here especially considering how much of a dumpster fire the TE position has been all season.

Targetting cheap TE’s with upside is the key to success. We saw it last week with Chig Okonkwo ending up in the nuts lineup and I think Conklin is the guy this week.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Bryce Young QB Carolina Panthers

Ownership: FD 6.75%

Salary: FD $7100

Bryce Young…might be better than CJ Stroud right now. If I would have said that 10 weeks ago people would have laughed, but that’s a legitimate take right now.

Young has found his legs, scoring 3 rushing TD’s in his last 4 games giving him a legitimate ceiling, and the passing game has been solid too throwing it a ton.

The turnovers are still a bit worrisome and hurt his ceiling, but he has smash at this price written all over him. Love the matchup against this Bucs defense that let Cooper Rush ball out last week and think he has a GPP winning game here.

Breece Hall RB New York Jets

Ownership: FD: 5.8%

Salary: FD $7900

You can run on the Bills and Breece is starting to look like the Breece Hall of earlier this season, especially out of the backfield catching passes.

The Jets want to SLOOOOWWW this game down and not get into a shoot out with Josh Allen and the Bills so expect a heavy dose of Breece Hall on the ground here.

Romeo Doubs WR Green Bay Packers

Ownership: FD 5%

Salary: FD $5600

As mentioned above, diehard Vikings fan here, but we (I realize I’m not on the team…) cannot stop the pass. Good against the run, which isn’t great for Jacobs, and the assumption here is that the Pack will be down and throwing the ball a ton here.

Doubs is an elite red zone option and with Watson potentially out here, he should see an increase in usage.

I know I mentioned this above, but Jacobs is a trap play this week. Lock in the Pack passing game and you’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.

Josh Downs WR Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: FD 5.9%

Salary: FD $6100

The Colts haven’t thrown the ball a ton the last few games with the resurgence of Jonathan Taylor and the run game but that could change here against the Giants, and even if it doesn’t, he can still get it done as we saw last week.

We’ve seen the massive upside from him this season and I just think the price/ownership compared to the potential upside is too much.

Malik Nabers WR New York Giants

Ownership: FD 7%

Salary: FD: $7700

The usage here is outrageous. I get that it’s Drew Lock throwing him the ball but the Colts are one of the worst defenses in the league and he’s had 14, 14, 10, 13 targerts his last four games.

He is dealing with a toe injury so we need to watch that, but this is a smash spot for him.

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