DFS Army’s Gthom goes over the waiver wire targets for this week. These waiver wire targets are normally available in 50-percent of ESPN leagues.
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Cardinals cornerback Max Melton (16) chases down Commanders runningback Jeremy McNichols (26) during a game at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Sept. 29, 2024.
QUARTERBACKS
Caleb Williams (CHI) – 37%
Williams has been dormant since Weeks 5 and 6, but he exploded for 26.9 fantasy points against the Vikings in Week 12. This was on the back of 32 for 47 passing, which churned out 340 passing yards, 33 rushing yards, and two touchdowns. The best part of all of this is that Williams has not given the ball away in over four consecutive games.
It truly seems the offensive coordinator change in Chicago has benefited Williams for fantasy. Even ignoring his improved passing production, he has exactly 100 yards rushing over his last two games, and that creates a higher fantasy floor for Williams.
His next game will be against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. The Bears have not won in Detroit since 2021, and it will be difficult to do so in Week 13. Despite this, Williams and his passing attack are heating up. Detroit’s defense is susceptible to the pass. They allow the 29th-most pass attempts and 25th-most passing yards per game to opposing offenses. With Williams’ rushing floor boosting his fantasy profile, he is a quarterback to stream in Week 13.
Matthew Stafford (LAR) – 32%
When Stafford has his full complement of receivers healthy, he is a different quarterback entirely—one that can be utilized and trusted for fantasy. Since Week 9, Stafford is the QB6 overall in total fantasy points, and on a per-game average, he is QB13, averaging 19.2 fantasy points.
His next game is against the Saints, who have allowed 18.5 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over their last five games. 18.5 fantasy points over this season would be the ninth-most allowed to the position. The New Orleans defense has been porous this season, and they have allowed the second-most opponent yards in the NFL, 390.8 total yards per game.
Lastly, the Rams are playing this game at home, and they are 2.5-point favorites. Both elements further boost confidence in Stafford’s Week 13 fantasy profile.
Russell Wilson (PIT) – 50%
Wilson has been up and down as a fantasy player in 2024. Given the Steelers’ identity, this is no surprise because they are not going to throw the ball 40 times each game. Wilson’s Week 13 bout against the Bengals lines up nicely for one of his good fantasy weeks.
Over his five games as a starter, Wilson has averaged 242.4 passing yards per game. The problem has been his inability to rack up touchdowns, especially since he is no longer as mobile as in his prime years. The former Super Bowl winner is averaging 1.4 passing touchdowns over this five-game stretch, and that has created volatility in his game.
The Bengals are being destroyed by the quarterback position, allowing 24.0 fantasy points per game over their last five games. This balloons to 27.9 fantasy points if you remove their dominant game against a very bad Raiders team. Additionally, Cincy allows quarterbacks to finish with 5.3 fantasy points above expectation during this five-game run. For the entire season, the Bengals allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Lastly, the Bengals are averaging 2.3 allowed passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest in the league over their last three games.
QB Sleepers:
- Drake Maye (NE) – 22%
RUNNING BACKS
Ameer Abdullah (LV) – 19%
Abdullah got it done for fantasy managers who put their trust in him. The vet’s stat line of eight carries for 28 yards on the ground, and five receptions for 37 yards and one touchdown through the air, created 17.5 PPR points against a stifling Denver defense. His passing game utilization may keep him relevant even after his teammates return from their injuries.
Keep in mind that Abdullah’s Week 13 fantasy profile will depend on the health of his teammates. Abdullah was the only healthy running back in their core rotation leading into Week 12, and the same may be the case for Week 13. Neither Zamir White nor Alexander Mattison were able to practice in any capacity leading into Week 12, and if that continues, they would likely miss another game. This would boost Abdullah to fantasy relevancy again.
Jeremy McNichols (WAS) – 1%
McNichols will become relevant in Week 13, more than likely, in some form. The reason for this is because the RB1, Brian Robinson Jr., was unable to finish the game against the Cowboys due to an ankle injury. Additionally, RB2 of the team, Austin Ekeler, suffered a concussion against the Cowboys, which nearly guarantees that Ekeler will be unavailable in Week 13. This leaves McNichols either alone in the backfield, or splitting with Robinson Jr. – both roles carry relevancy.
The third-string back got little work against the Cowboys, but he showed flashes of efficiency. He finished three carries for 22 yards on the ground, which equated to a 7.3 yards per carry average, albeit a small sample size. But we don’t need to look back far to see that McNichols flashes in small sample sizes. In Week 4, he finished his game against the Cardinals with eight carries for 68 yards and two touchdowns on the ground for 20.4 PPR points. He followed that up with a solid 10.4 PPR points in Week 5 on the back of his seven carries for 44 yards and one touchdown.
McNichols will be very attractive against the Titans if he gets the backfield without Robinson. Should Robinson return, McNichols will carry desperation FLEX value in deeper league formats.
Tank Bigsby (JAC) – 33%
For the 2024 season, Bigsby has averaged 51.9 rushing yards, 9.5 carries, 0.5 targets, and 0.3 receptions per game, with a touchdown rate of 4.1%. Despite his limited volume, he’s shown the ability to deliver explosive fantasy performances, as evidenced by his 33.7% juke rate and 5.7 yards per touch, both metrics rank in the top-10 among all running backs. He has recorded spike weeks of 25.9 and 23.8 PPR points as well, which showcases his upside.
His upcoming schedule remains challenging. Jacksonville will host the Texans, travel to Tennessee, host the Jets, and then face a more favorable matchup on the road against the Raiders. While his schedule may not be ideal, a player with Bigsby’s talent and efficiency metrics should not remain on waivers. Fantasy managers would be wise to stash him for potential future value.
Trey Benson (ARI) – 28%
After back-to-back weeks of twelve or more PPR points, Benson’s streak was put to an end against a stingy Seattle defense. Benson finished with four carries for 18 yards and actually led the team in rushing for the day. Benson’s usage shrinking is not surprising. He has yet to play more than 33% of snaps in a game, and his snap count reached a three-game low of 17%. Simply put, Benson was game-scripted out of fantasy relevancy during his contest against the Seahawks.
The 22-year-old likely cannot be trusted against the Vikings, his next opponent. Weeks 14 to 17 will be much more favorable as the Cardinals will face Seattle, New England, Carolina, and the Los Angeles Rams, respectively. Benson’s role is clearly volatile, but he would become a valuable fantasy piece at this stage of the season if starter James Conner were to miss—and Conner carries an injury history.
Roschon Johnson (CHI) – 17%
The former Longhorn has a very specific role in his offense, which makes him mostly irrelevant for fantasy. Johnson is the goal-line back for the Chicago Bears, and that makes his usage limited. What fantasy production is created usually depends on whether he scores a touchdown or not. In Week 12, he demonstrated this by finishing with 2 carries for 2 yards and 1 touchdown, while adding one catch for 10 yards through the air, totaling 8.2 PPR points.
His next opponent is far from ideal: the Lions. However, divisional games create more volatile game environments. Stealing a touchdown against the Lions feels very difficult, as they have only allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season and allow the second-fewest points to the running back position among all NFL teams.
Tyjae Spears (TEN) – 41%
He missed Week 12 due to a concussion, but he should be on rosters if Spears lands on your league’s waivers. Spears usually sees 35 to 40% of the snaps at running back, and that is good enough for fantasy relevancy. He carries more value for full PPR managers as he excels in passing downs and yards after the catch.
His last game was Week 11 against the Vikings, where he finished with three carries for zero yards on the ground and added two catches for eight yards, totaling 2.8 PPR points. While this does not boost confidence, the Titans’ offense looks to be improving, which would allow Spears more opportunities to get into the mix.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO) – 14%
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. That’s how fantasy managers feel after watching Marquez Valdes-Scantling post his second consecutive game with 16-plus PPR points. In Week 10, he delivered three receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Many dismissed it as a fluke. However, in Week 11, he followed it up with two receptions for 87 yards and one touchdown. While luck certainly plays a role in these performances, Valdes-Scantling is thriving in his new role as the Saints’ stretch receiver, bringing great value for fantasy purposes.
Valdes-Scantling fits the mold of a high-risk, high-reward player for fantasy teams in need of upside. Once New Orleans returns, they’ll face the Rams at home, travel to play the Giants, and then host the Commanders.
DeMario Douglas (NE) – 26%
Douglas continues to be a solid PPR-only receiver streamer. Over his last four games, he has averaged 10.1 PPR points, along with 6.7 targets, 5.0 receptions, and 51.5 receiving yards per game. His touchdown upside remains minimal, with just one touchdown in his 26-game NFL career.
Douglas faces the Colts next, who have allowed 26.4 Half-PPR points per game to wide receivers this season, close to league average. However, that figure increases to 28.8 Half-PPR points when examining their last five contests.
Xavier Legette (CAR) – 36%
Legette caught four passes for 56 yards on six targets in Week 12, finishing with 9.6 PPR points. Despite the return of veteran Adam Thielen, Legette maintained a significant 94% snap rate. It will be interesting to monitor Legette’s fantasy production as Thielen works back to his typical workload.
Over his last six games, Legette has averaged 9.6 PPR points per game. His next matchup is against divisional rival Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed 29.4 Half-PPR points per game to wide receivers this season, the eighth-highest mark in the NFL. That figure has remained steady over their last four games at 28.3 Half-PPR points, though it’s worth noting that average includes a game against the Giants, led by backup quarterback Tommy DeVito.
Adam Thielen (CAR) – 28%
In his first game back from an extended injury absence, Adam Thielen caught three passes for 57 yards on four targets, finishing with 8.7 PPR points while playing 61% of snaps. If he could produce against a tough Kansas City Chiefs defense, then starting him against Tampa Bay could be a viable option for fantasy managers in Week 13. The Buccaneers have allowed 29.4 Half-PPR points per game to wide receivers this season, the eighth-highest mark in the NFL. Over their last four games, that number has stayed consistent at 28.3 Half-PPR points per game.
One thing is certain: Carolina’s offense has been improving, and reintegrating Thielen should further aid their development. However, it’s important to note that Thielen’s best days are behind him, and the Panthers appear focused on cultivating the younger talent on their roster.
Devaughn Vele (DEN) – 2%
Vele is averaging 12.8 PPR points over his last three games, ranking as the 28th-best among NFL receivers during that span. Additionally, he is the WR23 overall in total PPR points scored. Over this sample, he has averaged 0.3 touchdowns, 4.6 receptions, and 61.6 receiving yards per game.
The Broncos’ offense has been firing on all cylinders recently, averaging 27 points per game over their last three contests, the ninth-highest mark in the NFL during that stretch. The rookie will face the Browns in Week 13, a defense that has allowed 30.7 Half-PPR points per game to opposing receivers — the fifth-most in the league.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) – 8%
Death, taxes, and apparently Nick Westbrook-Ikhine scoring a touchdown are the only certainties in life. Over his last seven games, Westbrook-Ikhine has scored six touchdowns. While touchdowns typically correlate with top-12 fantasy value, that’s not the case here. Since Week 7, he has averaged 11.9 PPR points per game, ranking 36th among receivers during that stretch. His production has been heavily touchdown-dependent, as he’s averaged just 2.4 receptions for 42.1 yards per game.
Westbrook-Ikhine’s next game is against the Commanders, who allow 26.9 Half-PPR points per game to wide receivers this season — roughly league average. Over their last three games, the figure is similar at 26.6 Half-PPR points per game. However, Washington has been more generous with touchdowns, allowing 13 to receivers this season, the eighth-highest total in the NFL.
Elijah Moore (CLE) – 9%
Since Week 7, Moore is the WR37 based on his average of 11.2 PPR points per game. While this average sounds like a reasonable FLEX player, Moore carries volatility and will be irrelevant on certain weeks. Despite this, he has seen no fewer than five targets in a single game since Week 7, and he is averaging eight targets per contest in that time.
Moore’s upcoming schedule, featuring Denver and Pittsburgh over the next two games, is no joke, making him hard to trust. Both teams allow fewer than the league average in PPR points to the slot receiver position. Moore remains a volatile fantasy player in Week 13 but can be used by teams in a pinch.
Noah Brown (WAS) – 11%
Brown finished with six receptions for 71 yards on 10 targets against the Cowboys, producing 13.1 PPR points — his highest total since Week 8. Despite the solid performance, his 73% snap share highlights the volatility that has followed him all season.
The former Ohio State receiver is a playable option in Week 13 against the Titans. Tennessee has been stingy against opposing receivers, allowing just 22.6 Half-PPR points per game this season, the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. However, over their last three games, that number has risen to 26.5 Half-PPR points, a middling figure compared to other teams. Notably, their top cornerback, L’Jarius Sneed, is out for the next three games after being placed on injured reserve.
TIGHT ENDS
Will Dissly (LAC) – 14%
Writing this before his Monday Night Football matchup against the Ravens, Dissly should be a priority pickup ahead of his Week 13 game against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed 10.3 Half-PPR points per game to the tight end position this season, the 12th-highest mark in the NFL.
Since Week 7 (excluding Monday Night Football), Dissly has accounted for 25% of his team’s receptions and holds a 22.9% target share. Additionally, the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense has been in a groove, throwing for 275 or more passing yards in all but one game since Week 7.
Luke Schoonmaker (DAL) – 11%
Schoonmaker stepped in as the TE1 for the Cowboys with Jake Ferguson remaining in concussion protocol. The second-year man from Michigan posted a stat line of three receptions for 55 yards and one touchdown on four targets. His 14.5 PPR points ranked as TE8 overall for the week.
If Ferguson misses additional time, Schoonmaker can be viewed as a plug-and-play tight end streamer against the Giants.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) – 43%
Freiermuth has a strong matchup in Week 13 against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been the league’s second-worst team at defending tight ends, allowing an average of 12.9 half-PPR points per game. Over their last three games, that average has risen to 16.7 half-PPR points, with tight ends scoring 2.1 fantasy points above expectation during that stretch.
Since Week 9, Freiermuth has seen a low 8.8% target share but boasts a 33.3% touchdown share. This positions him well to find the end zone against a Bengals defense that has surrendered seven touchdowns to tight ends this season.