Week 12 Waiver Wire – NFL Fantasy Football – 2024

DFS Army’s Gthom goes over the waiver wire targets for this week. These waiver wire targets are normally available in 50-percent of ESPN leagues.

Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call X, or Twitter, or whatever it’s called @GarettThomas.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – 43%

In his fourth week back from a severe concussion, Tua Tagovailoa posted an impressive 23.5 fantasy points. His performance against the Raiders was fueled by a strong stat line: 28 completions on 36 attempts for 288 passing yards and three touchdowns. This marked Tagovailoa’s best outing of the 2024 season.

Looking ahead, the Dolphins face a tougher slate of games. They will host the Patriots, travel to Green Bay, and then return home to play the Jets. Each of these defenses has allowed 15.5 or fewer fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, all below the league average. However, given the Dolphins’ explosive offense, fantasy managers should remain confident in Tagovailoa’s ability to produce despite the challenging matchups.

Anthony Richardson (IND) – 44%

Anthony Richardson’s most recent performance against the Jets showcased his potential fantasy managers envisioned when drafting him in the preseason. Richardson completed 20 of 30 passes for 272 yards, added 32 rushing yards, and accounted for three total touchdowns, including two on the ground. His 28-point fantasy outing was his season-high and the best since his 26-point performance in Week 1.

Richardson offers exceptional upside if he can put things together, even league-winning potential. However, his accuracy has long been a concern, completing 48.5% of his passes this season and 59.5% in his shortened rookie campaign. In Week 11, he posted a 66.7% completion rate, the highest of his career (for games he finished). While this marked a significant step forward, fantasy managers may hesitate to trust him fully.

Looking ahead, Richardson faces the Lions and then travels to New England before the Colts enter their BYE week in Week 14. Detroit has been the sixth-toughest defense for opposing quarterbacks, allowing just 13.4 fantasy points per game. New England is slightly below league average, giving up 15.5 points per game.

Drake Maye (NE) – 18%

In Week 11, Maye delivered another solid fantasy performance against the Rams, completing 30 of 40 passes for 282 yards, rushing for 27 yards, and adding two touchdowns alongside two turnovers. He finished the game with 17.9 fantasy points.

Since becoming the starter in Week 6, Drake Maye has averaged more fantasy points per game than Jordan Love (GB), Geno Smith (SEA), Jayden Daniels (WAS), and even Kirk Cousins (ATL). Maye is currently posting 17.2 fantasy points per game, that number ranks as QB17 overall during that span.

Maye and the Patriots now face a familiar divisional opponent in the Miami Dolphins for Week 12. The Dolphins have allowed an average of 19.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over their last four contests. Compared to all NFL teams for the entire 2024 season, that figure would rank as the fifth-highest mark.

While the matchup looks promising on paper, divisional games often carry additional variance. Fantasy managers relying on Maye as a streaming option should expect a performance closer to his” floor” than his “ceiling” in this matchup.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

Trey Benson (ARI) – 17%

Over Benson’s two-game stretch, he has played just 27.5% of snaps but has managed to score 12.5 and 10.7 PPR points, respectively. In Week 9, Benson recorded eight carries for 37 yards and a touchdown, along with one reception for 18 yards. He followed that with 10 carries for 62 yards and added two receptions for 25 yards in Week 10. Averaging 10 to 12 touches per game makes him FLEX-worthy, and if he carves out a larger role at James Conner’s expense, his upside could grow significantly.

Arizona’s 49.48% run rate ranks seventh in the league this season, creating ample opportunity in the backfield. Given Conner’s injury history, Benson is a high-upside handcuff with low FLEX-level production on a weekly basis.

Tank Bigsby (JAC) – 42%

Bigsby was announced as an early inactive for Jacksonville’s Week 11 game against the Lions, leaving many fantasy managers feeling the need to cut ties with him. The reasoning was straightforward: Jacksonville has a Week 12 BYE, making Bigsby unavailable for two consecutive weeks, and Trevor Lawrence’s absence due to injury.

Fortunately, it appears Lawrence will avoid injured reserve, which would breathe life back into this Jaguars offense. However, the upcoming schedule remains challenging. Jacksonville will host the Texans, travel to Tennessee, host the Jets, and then face a more favorable matchup on the road against the Raiders.

For the 2024 season, Bigsby has averaged 51.9 rushing yards, 9.5 carries, 0.5 targets, and 0.3 receptions per game, with a touchdown rate of 4.1%. Despite his limited volume, he’s shown the ability to deliver explosive fantasy performances, as evidenced by his 33.7% juke rate and 5.7 yards per touch, both metrics rank in the top-10 among all running backs.. He has recorded spike weeks of 25.9 and 23.8 PPR points as well, which showcases his upside.

While his schedule may not be ideal, a player with Bigsby’s talent and efficiency metrics should not remain on waivers. Fantasy managers would be wise to stash him for potential future value.

Roschon Johnson (CHI) – 14%

Johnson’s fantasy profile is straightforward. As the RB2 in his offense, he maintains value through efficiency, primarily because of his involvement in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Johnson has five rushing touchdowns this season, including one in Week 11 against Green Bay. In that game, the second-year running back logged 10 carries for 33 yards and added one reception for eight yards, finishing with 11.1 PPR points.

While Johnson can be “efficient,” it’s important to note that his fantasy production is heavily touchdown-dependent. Without a touchdown, he’s likely to underperform, as evidenced by his four consecutive games with 6.6 PPR points or fewer (prior to Week 11). This volatility makes Johnson a risky option who will be difficult to predict week-to-week. Still, in deeper leagues, a touchdown-dependent back within a hot-and-cold offense might be worth a roster spot over less viable alternatives.

Jerome Ford (CLE) – 35%

The Browns have shifted their identity this season, becoming a team involved in high-scoring affairs with most of their production coming through the air. This change keeps Jerome Ford in play for fantasy football, even with Nick Chubb as the presumed RB1 in the offense. Over the last two games, Ford has outsnapped Chubb by more than 50%. While Chubb handles most of the between-the-tackles work, Ford’s involvement in passing situations carries value, particularly in full PPR leagues.

In Week 11, Ford recorded five carries for 10 yards and added four receptions for 29 yards, totaling 7.9 PPR points. This level of production is likely Ford’s baseline unless he can find the end zone. While Ford is best considered in deeper leagues, he faces a challenging schedule ahead. The Browns will host the Steelers before traveling to Denver and Pittsburgh, finishing this stretch with a home game against the Chiefs. Denver and Pittsburgh are average against opposing running backs, but the Chiefs rank as the league’s toughest defense for the position.

Gus Edwards (LAC) – 26%

After receiving 10 touches in his return from injured reserve, Edwards saw his workload decrease in Week 11, logging six carries for 27 rushing yards. He finished the game with just 2.7 PPR points. This underscores the volatility that has kept Edwards widely available in leagues. The Week 11 game script—a high-scoring contest favoring a pass-heavy offense—did not suit Edwards’ skill set.

Edwards remains a touchdown-dependent running back who should stay off rosters unless you’re extremely desperate or looking for handcuff upside. In Week 12, the Chargers face another high-powered offense in the Baltimore Ravens, which isn’t an ideal setup for Edwards’ fantasy value. However, his value as a handcuff to J.K. Dobbins gives him some appeal in deeper formats.

Tyjae Spears (TEN) – 45%

Spears has been unplayable for fantasy since his return from injury in Week 10. Operating primarily as the scatback in his offense, Spears sees little involvement in early-down situations. Earlier this season, he was a more reliable option, averaging 8.6 PPR points per game from Weeks 1 through 4. However, injuries have derailed his production, and since Week 5, he has averaged just 4.5 PPR points per game. Despite his reduced output, Spears remains on the field frequently, logging a 46% snap share in Week 10 and 44% in Week 11.

To complicate matters, Spears was evaluated for a concussion at the end of the team’s Week 11 game against the Vikings. If he enters concussion protocol, he will likely miss the next game. Even if he is cleared to play, he faces an uphill battle to produce a meaningful fantasy performance.

Audric Estime (DEN) – 36%

Estime fizzled in Week 11 after a breakout in usage during Week 10 against the Chiefs. In Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons, he managed just six carries for 16 yards on the ground and added three receptions for nine yards, finishing with a disappointing 5.5 PPR points. This lackluster performance makes Estime more of a stash candidate than a potential plug-and-play option.

The rookie’s snap count also dropped in Week 11, falling to 23% after logging 45% in Week 10. This decrease further highlights the uncertainty surrounding his role in the offense.

Despite this, Estime still holds some value for fantasy managers. It’s clear that Javonte Williams isn’t going anywhere, and Estime’s upside hinges on him potentially carving out a role as the primary option on first and second downs. Williams is the team’s top-rated pass protector and will likely maintain his grip on third-down duties. While Jaleel McLaughlin has seen less work than Estime over the last two games, it appears Estime remains the favorite for the RB2 role in this offense.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Quentin Johnston (LAC) – 51%

Quentin Johnston continues to impress following his two-game absence. Over his last three games, he has averaged 63.3 receiving yards, 5.0 targets, 3.3 receptions, and 1.0 touchdowns. Justin Herbert and the Chargers clearly value Johnston as both a reliable receiver and a go-to red zone option. Johnston is second on the team with six touchdowns this season, which does lead the receiver’s room.

Looking ahead, Johnston’s schedule is enticing for fantasy purposes. The Chargers will face the Ravens at home, followed by road games against the Falcons and Chiefs, and then a home matchup against the Bengals. Respectively, these defenses rank 32nd, 27th, 11th, and 20th in PPR points allowed to opposing receivers, making all except Kansas City a favorable match up.

Kendrick Bourne (NE) – 2%

If you’re looking to get ahead of the curve, Bourne might be your guy. He put himself on the fantasy radar in Week 11 with five receptions for 70 yards and one touchdown. Against the Titans in Week 9 (his last healthy game), Bourne finished with four receptions and forty-one receiving yards for 8.1 PPR points.

This Patriots offense looks far more appealing for fantasy purposes now that rookie Drake Maye is at the helm. Maye’s talent appears capable of elevating at least one New England receiver to fantasy relevance. Bourne could be that player. The seventh-year veteran has consistently posted a high yards-per-catch average throughout his career, though he has never been a reliable fantasy option.

The Patriots face a tough Dolphins secondary in Week 12 before hosting the Colts in Week 13. The 29-year-old wideout projects as a low-end FLEX option in Week 12 but offers a more enticing fantasy profile in Week 13 against Indianapolis.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO) – 14%

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. That’s how fantasy managers feel after watching Marquez Valdes-Scantling post his second consecutive game with 16-plus PPR points. In Week 10, he delivered three receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Many dismissed it as a fluke. However, in Week 11, he followed it up with two receptions for 87 yards and one touchdown. While luck certainly plays a role in these performances, Valdes-Scantling is thriving in his new role as the Saints’ stretch receiver and that brings great value for fantasy purposes.

The Saints will be on a BYE in Week 12, but Valdes-Scantling fits the mold of a high-risk, high-reward player for fantasy teams in need of upside. Once New Orleans returns, they’ll face the Rams at home, travel to play the Giants, and then host the Commanders.

Elijah Moore (CLE) – 9%

Moore has been heavily targeted since Week 8. Over that span, he is averaging 59.6 receiving yards, 9.6 targets, 5.6 receptions, and a touchdown rate of 0.33%. Analyzing the Browns’ offense, Cleveland has relied on the pass heavily, posting the highest passing play percentage in the league over their last three games at 68.9%. Their season average of 65.2% is the second-highest in the NFL. This elevated passing rate bolsters the fantasy floor of all Browns pass catchers.

While Moore is an excellent option in full PPR leagues, his upcoming schedule poses challenges. The Browns will host Pittsburgh, travel to Denver, play Pittsburgh on the road, and then host the Chiefs. All of those teams have suppressed opposing wide receivers for fantasy purposes this season.

DeMario Douglas (NE) – 26%

Douglas has hovered around 10 PPR points in each of his last three games, offering a clear picture of his fantasy profile. He’s a solid-floor PPR option tied to a quarterback in Drake Maye who continues to develop at the NFL level. As Maye improves, can Douglas’ potential outlook, especially as the top wide receiver on the team with an 18.3% target share this season.

Currently, Douglas’ upside remains capped by his lack of touchdowns. He has only scored once in 25 NFL appearances. This limitation is further underscored by his middling efficiency metrics: a 6.92 yards-per-target average and a 9.43 yards-per-catch mark. Douglas has accumulated 415 receiving yards this season, reinforcing his role as a steady, albeit unspectacular, option for fantasy managers.

Xavier Legette (CAR) – 41%

Before Week 10, Legette had been on a roll, scoring eleven or more PPR points in three of four games. Facing the Giants is never easy for fantasy receivers, and Legette felt that with his three receptions for 40 yards on four targets in Week 10.

He faces a steep up-hill battle in Week 12 as the Panthers face a tough Chiefs defense who have suppressed opposing receivers to 30.7 PPR points per game, 11^th lowest in the NFL . Still, Legette is the starting wide receiver for an NFL offense and that makes him a better option than most of the scraps on the waiver-wire. Managers can hang their hat on the fact that the rookie receiver is second in the NFL in contested catch rate and he carries a 11.8% touchdown rate, 16th among all receivers.

Adam Thielen (CAR) – 25%

While the Panthers appear committed to developing their younger players, Adam Thielen could disrupt the current pecking order among the team’s receivers. At 34 years old, Thielen is well past his prime but still brings consistency and experience to a struggling young quarterback who has faced significant challenges at the NFL level.

In his three appearances this season, Thielen has averaged 36.3 receiving yards, 4.0 targets and 2.7 receptions per game, along with a 13% target share. While these numbers fall short of being reliable for fantasy, the recent departure of Diontae Johnson to Baltimore could elevate Thielen as a favorite target for his quarterback.

Still, Thielen remains a low-end waiver option with potential relevance in favorable matchups. Though he has shown flashes of fantasy viability, his role within this emerging group of young receivers will ultimately determine his value moving forward.

Ricky Pearsall (SF) – 39%

After two weeks of solid fantasy production, including a 17.3-PPR performance, Ricky Pearsall crashed back to Earth in Week 11, posting a goose egg in the box score. Despite the zero-point outing, Pearsall was targeted twice.

Pearsall has appeared in just four games this season, leaving his role subject to evolution. As a first-round pick in the 2024 draft, the coaching staff has incentive to involve him more, but the team boasts several other viable options in the passing game. Still, Pearsall carries PPR potential, aided by the explosiveness of the 49ers’ offense, which is capable of keeping pace with any opponent. His snap participation, which typically hovers around 60%, underscores the volatility managers should expect moving forward.

Over his last five games, Pearsall has averaged 8.5 PPR points, ranking as the WR55 overall during that span compared to other receivers. While he has some appeal in deeper leagues, his inconsistency makes him a risky option in most formats.

Jalen McMillan (TB) – 18%

McMillan has been a major source of frustration for fantasy managers, but there may still be hope for him. Many added him off waivers when Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were sidelined. While Godwin is out for the season, Evans is expected to return this week against the Giants, as he was never placed on injured reserve. Evans’ presence could actually benefit McMillan by drawing defensive attention away from him.

McMillan’s only healthy trial run as the WR1 came in Week 8 against Atlanta, where he posted four receptions for 35 yards, totaling 9.2 PPR points. Unfortunately, things went downhill after that. He missed Week 9 due to injury and then burned fantasy managers in Week 10 by being declared active but failing to play a single snap.

Despite these setbacks, McMillan may still hold value for patient managers. His upcoming schedule features several high-upside matchups, including road games against the Giants, Panthers, Chargers, and Cowboys, as well as home games against the Raiders and Panthers. For those willing to take the risk, McMillan could still provide fantasy relevance down the stretch.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) – 2%

Since Week 6, Westbrook-Ikhine has consistently caught two to three passes per game, often scoring on one of those receptions. Over his last six games, he has found the end zone five times, maintaining this production despite a rotating quarterback situation. In his most recent game against the Vikings, he finished with two catches for 117 receiving yards and one touchdown Most of this production came on the back of his 98-yard touchdown reception.

While some luck has undoubtedly contributed to his success this season, Westbrook-Ikhine remains a viable hope-and-pray option when needed. His upcoming schedule is favorable for wide receivers. Respectively, the Titans will travel to Houston, travel to Washington, host the Jaguars, followed by the Bengals, then travel to face the Colts and Jaguars. Most of these teams allow at least 32.7 PPR points per game to wide receivers. The two matchups against Jacksonville stand out, as the Jaguars surrender 41.3 PPR points per game to the position, the second-most in the NFL.

Westbrook-Ikhine is a risky option moving forward. Without a touchdown, he is likely to underperform, but the Titans clearly trust him in the red zone—a factor that should not be ignored.

Christian Watson (GB) – 48%

Christian Watson delivered a standout performance in Week 11 against the Bears, finishing with four receptions for 150 yards. This impressive stat line earned fantasy managers 19.0 PPR points. While Watson can “boom” in any given week, the Packers’ receiver rotation continues to be unpredictable. Watson typically sees around 55% to 65% of the team’s offensive snaps, which adds volatility to his weekly production.

Watson is widely recognized as a staple “hope-and-pray” fantasy option. His fantasy ceiling keeps him relevant, but his floor remains perilously low. If you roll him out against the 49ers, his big-play ability could swing a matchup in your favor. However, Watson will likely need to score a touchdown—a feat he has achieved just twice this season—for that upside to materialize.

Noah Brown (WAS) – 11%

The WR2 role in Washington has been less productive than fantasy managers might hope, and that’s the role Noah Brown has occupied when healthy. Since his spectacular—and infamous—Hail Mary catch earlier this season, Brown has struggled to offer consistent fantasy value. In his three games since that moment, Brown has posted 11.0, 6.3, and 1.4 PPR points, respectively. Over that stretch, he has averaged 32.3 receiving yards, 5.6 targets, and 3.0 receptions per game.

While Brown has faltered in recent weeks, he draws an enticing Week 12 matchup against the Cowboys. Before their Monday Night Football appearance, the Cowboys were allowing 33.9 half-PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers over their last four contests—the fourth-most in the NFL. Brown remains a hope-and-pray option for deeper leagues, but the favorable matchup could offer fantasy production.

 

TIGHT ENDS

 

Will Dissly (LAC) – 14%

Since Week 7, Will Dissly has established himself as a reliable option at the tight end position. Over that span, he has averaged 48.2 receiving yards, 6.6 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 10.8 PPR points per game, tying for the 11th-highest mark among tight ends. His consistent production makes him a solid option for fantasy managers seeking stability at a volatile position. Additionally, he balled during Week 11’s Sunday Night Football production, finishing with four receptions, 80 yards receiving and one touchdown.

Dissly’s schedule down the stretch also sets up favorably. The Chargers will face the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers in their next four games. All these teams rank in the bottom third of the NFL against tight ends, allowing at least 12.7 PPR points per game to the position. With solid volume and excellent matchups ahead, Dissly could play a significant role in helping managers secure playoff spots and make deep postseason runs.

Jonnu Smith (MIA) – 32%

Smith erupted for 28.1 PPR points against the Raiders in Week 11, finishing with six receptions for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Smith has been trending upward for fantasy purposes for a while now, but his biggest appeal lies in his role within Miami’s revamped offense. For years, the Dolphins’ passing attack centered around Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This season, the passing game has become more distributed, so much so that it has made Waddle largely irrelevant. This new pecking order has been a reason that Smith has averaged 5.2 targets this season.

The Dolphins have a favorable schedule ahead. They host the Patriots in Week 12, travel to play the Packers in Week 13, and return home to face the Jets in Week 14. Smith offers a solid floor for a tight end, with a higher ceiling than most at the position, due to the

Ja’Tavion Sanders (CAR) – 0%

Before heading into their Week 11 BYE, Sanders quietly delivered a stretch of consistent, if unspectacular, production. Over his last five games, he was the TE15 overall, averaging 9.0 PPR points per game. His per-game averages include 42.4 receiving yards, 4.2 targets, and 3.6 receptions.

While those numbers don’t stand out, they make Sanders a serviceable option for managers searching through low-end options at tight end. This week, the Panthers face the Chiefs, a defensive powerhouse. However, Kansas City has allowed 16 PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, the third-highest mark in the league, presenting an appealing matchup on paper.

Sanders is a calculated hope-and-pray option in Week 12. Though the matchup appears favorable for his position, his quarterback faces a daunting challenge against this Chiefs defense, which could limit Sanders’ floor and upside.