Week 10 Waiver Wire – NFL Fantasy Football

DFS Army’s Gthom goes over the waiver wire targets for this week. These waiver wire targets are normally available in 50-percent of ESPN leagues.

Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call X, or Twitter, or whatever it’s called @GarettThomas.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – 43%

Tagovailoa came out of Week 9 leaving fantasy managers satisfied as he exceeded his projection for the week. Facing the Bills in Buffalo is never easy, but Tagovailoa finished 25-of-28 for 231 passing yards and two touchdowns, good for 17.5 fantasy points.

Week 10 and 11 bring more favorable matchups as he faces the Rams and Raiders. The Rams just gave up 360 passing yards and three touchdowns to Seattle’s Geno Smith, and the Raiders just watched Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow toss five touchdowns. Tua is a strong play over the next two weeks.

Justin Herbert (LAC) – 43%

The Chargers’ passing offense has shown significant improvement over the last three games, averaging 303 passing yards—up from a 163-yard average over the first five games of the season. During this period, Justin Herbert is averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game, ranking as the QB7 overall with 58.3 fantasy points.

While Herbert faces a challenging Titans defense in Week 10, his fantasy outlook brightens considerably afterward. From Weeks 11 to 15, he will go up against the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. With the exception of the Chiefs, each of these defenses allows over 18 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, ranking them among the league’s worst in that regard.

Herbert can be played against the Titans if you have no alternative options, but consider stashing him mainly for his upcoming schedule.

Russell Wilson (PIT) – 22%

Coming out of their bye week, Wilson needs to be considered by managers looking for help at the quarterback position. Wilson has shined in his first two starts, throwing for 264 yards and two touchdowns in his first start and 278 yards with one touchdown in his second game. His fantasy scores for these performances were 24.8 and 13.8 points.

Wilson will face the Commanders in Week 10. While that was an auto-start for fantasy quarterbacks early in the year, Washington’s defense has stepped it up recently—at least until they faced Daniel Jones in Week 9. Over their last six games against opposing quarterbacks, Washington is allowing 12.8 fantasy points to the position. While that seems scary low, these numbers have been inflated by bad teams or very young quarterbacks. Throughout this season, they have shown to be susceptible to good teams and good quarterbacks, and Wilson fits the bill for that in Week 10.

Daniel Jones (NYG) – 12%

Streaming quarterbacks will be hard to come by in Week 10, with the Browns, Packers, and Seahawks on BYE. Enter the ever-risky Daniel Jones as a potential streaming option.

Jones is a high-risk, dual-threat quarterback whose rushing ability often boosts his fantasy floor. However, his inconsistent passing production and turnover issues make him a volatile play, best suited for favorable matchups like his Week 10 matchup against the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers have struggled defensively in fantasy, allowing an average of 24.1 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over their last five games, one of the worst rates in the league. Jones finished Week 9 completing 20-of-26 for 174 yards and two touchdowns through the air, adding seven carries for 54 yards and a touchdown on the ground, though he lost one fumble. His 24.4-point performance is repeatable this week against Carolina.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

Khalil Herbert (CIN) – 4%

After being traded to the Bengals, Herbert finds himself in an intriguing, albeit uncertain, role that should improve upon his previous role. His new teammate, Chris Brown, has solidified himself as a young, bright, NFL running back and just posted his best career fantasy day in Week 9, with 26.7 PPR points. So why did the Bengals go out and acquire Herbert? There are likely two scenarios in play.

The first scenario is more optimistic, with Herbert potentially mixing in similarly to Zack Moss’ former role. Moss was already seeing a reduction in usage before his injury, and over his last three full games in Cincinnati, Moss’ role accounted for 31.5% of rushing attempts, 27.5% of the running back fantasy points, 19.4% of the rushing yardage, and a 0% touchdown rate. Herbert could thrive in that limited role and possibly expand his responsibilities – it is certainly better than his previous role in Chicago. He has shown efficiency in limited action in the past, with five touchdowns on 129 carries and a 5.67 yards per carry average in 2022. In 2023, he averaged 4.63 yards per carry on 132 carries with three touchdowns.

The more pessimistic scenario suggests that the Bengals’ coaching staff simply wants to bolster the depth chart behind Brown. This makes sense, considering the backup options are Trayveon Williams, a 2019 sixth-round pick, and undrafted rookie Kendall Milton.

Herbert is worth a shot for managers in need of depth at running back. If he sees action on Thursday Night Football against the Ravens, he remains a dart-throw option. Proceed with caution in Week 10, hoping Herbert can show some upside in his supporting role.

Ray Davis (BUF) – 14%

Davis continues to churn out fantasy points in a limited role. In Week 9 against the Dolphins, he finished with four carries for 20 yards and two receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown. In two of his last three games as the backup, he has scored 11.7, 2.9, and 17 PPR points, respectively. His explosive ability is becoming increasingly difficult for the coaching staff to ignore.

The first-year player is versatile for the Bills, but his inconsistent usage makes him a risky play. While he has shown flashes of potential, fantasy managers should approach him with caution or consider him for use in case of emergency. Additionally, should anything happen to starter James Cook, Davis would become a plug-and-play top-12 running back.

Justice Hill (BAL) – 21%

Justice Hill is a volatile fantasy option who can be deployed in a pinch due to his potential for big plays in the Ravens’ offense. While his production can fluctuate, he offers managers a risky yet intriguing choice when facing up-tempo matchups.

In Week 9, Hill had five carries for 15 yards and three receptions for 43 yards, totaling 58 yards on the day. For the season, Hill is the RB36 overall, averaging 8.5 PPR points per game. He contributes an average of 3.5 carries, 13.2 rushing yards, and 0.22 rushing touchdowns, along with 2.7 receptions, 3.1 targets, and 30.2 receiving yards per game.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL) – 50%

Allgeier isn’t an exciting option right now, but he can offer low-level running back production in a pinch. He also serves as a solid handcuff if Bijan Robinson’s health becomes uncertain.

In Week 8 against the Buccaneers, Allgeier carried the ball six times for 18 rushing yards and one touchdown, totaling 7.8 fantasy points. This season, he is averaging 41.1 rushing yards on 8.2 carries per game, with a rate of 5.0 yards per carry and 0.22 touchdowns. Additionally, he averages 0.88 receptions and 7.13 receiving yards per game.

Braelon Allen (NYJ) – 24%

Allen profiles as a player who remains off starting lineups but can provide some level of production if managers are out of options at the running back position. The Jets seem to value his talent, albeit in a limited role, and he continues to vulture fantasy production from Breece Hall. He is also a player who would see his usage increase substantially if Hall were to get injured.

Allen averages 21.7 rushing yards, 5.8 carries, 3.7 yards per carry, and 0.33 touchdowns per game, while also contributing 1.0 reception and 8.22 receiving yards through the air.

Isaac Guerendo (SF) – 8%

It’s a long shot for Guerendo to remain fantasy-relevant after the 49ers’ BYE, but stranger things have happened. Jordan Mason has left two of his last three games, and it’s uncertain how long his injury will linger. Additionally, San Francisco has a history of downplaying the severity of injuries (see Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel).

Lastly, McCaffrey is expected to return in Week 10, though it’s not guaranteed. If McCaffrey is limited (or misses) and Mason remains sidelined, Guerendo could be a strong FLEX option in Week 10. This long-shot scenario likely keeps Guerendo off the radar for most fantasy managers, but deeper leagues may find him worth a stash.

Against Dallas, he finished with 14 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown, adding three receptions for 17 yards on four targets.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Cedric Tillman (CLE) – 48%

Tillman has shown he could be a season-winning addition to fantasy rosters at this stage of the season. He’s scored 18 or more PPR points in each of his last three games, with a touchdown in each. His floor also appears reliable, averaging seven targets per game during this stretch. This is also the third week in a row that Tillman has led all Cleveland pass catchers in fantasy points scored.

The main drawback to picking up Tillman is Cleveland’s scheduled BYE in Week 10. However, he remains the highest-priority waiver pickup this week. After their BYE, the Browns will travel to face the Saints and then host the Steelers.

Quentin Johnston (LAC) – 21%

After missing two games, Johnston returned in Week 9 with a strong performance, recording four catches for 118 yards and a touchdown. This marks the second time he’s delivered for fantasy managers this season; back in Week 2 against the Panthers, he posted 22.1 PPR points. However, Johnston’s biggest challenge has been staying healthy, having missed three games so far.

The Chargers’ passing offense has shown notable improvement in recent weeks, averaging 303 passing yards over their last three games—significantly up from their 163-yard average over the season’s first five games. The Chargers will face a formidable Titans defense in Week 10, followed by matchups against the Bengals, Ravens, and Falcons.

Xavier Legette (CAR) – 33%

Legette is finding his form for fantasy managers. He has scored 11 or more PPR points in four of his last six games. Additionally, he has scored a touchdown in three of his last four contests. Now, Legette finds himself as the potential WR1 for this Panthers offense.

The departure of former teammate Diontae Johnson is significant. Johnson leaves a large void in the Panthers’ target distribution, especially in the red zone, where he commanded a 37.9% target share. While some managers may turn to the veteran Adam Thielen, Legette appears to be the option with the most upside.

Legette is a first-year player drafted in the first round. The team will be keen on developing him further, especially now that the depth chart is less crowded. In eight games, Legette is averaging 5.1 targets, 3.3 receptions, 30.5 receiving yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per contest.

Demarcus Robinson (LAR) – 13%

Robinson finds himself back as a waiver addition leading into Week 10. He has seemingly benefited from the return of starters Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Since their return over the last two games, Robinson’s combined production during that span would make him the WR6 overall while averaging 22.5 PPR points. Of course, this level of production is unsustainable, but he could easily provide WR3/FLEX numbers moving forward.

Interestingly enough, Robinson excelled with Kupp and Nacua on the field last season as well. During Weeks 13-17 of 2023, Robinson ranked as the WR12 overall and averaged 15.4 PPR points while being the WR3 in this Rams’ offense. Consider Robinson a sneaky player with upside moving forward.

Jalen McMillan (TB) – 36%

(Analysis to be updated after MNF)

One game removed from losing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for the near future, Jalen McMillan stepped into a new role. McMillan saw the most snaps of his 2024 season and delivered 4 receptions for 35 yards on seven targets, which tallied 9.2 PPR points.

Analyzing this passing offense, they hardly skipped a beat in terms of fantasy production. Tampa Bay ended the day with over 300 passing yards and three passing touchdowns.

While the Bucs found success in Week 8, they will face a much tougher defensive opponent in Week 9. Tampa Bay will go up against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are the fifth-toughest defense against opposing receivers when considering average fantasy points allowed per game to the position.

McMillan should be picked up due to the clear increase in his role, but it will be hard to trust his fantasy output against tough upcoming opponents: Kansas City and San Francisco.

Ricky Pearsall (SF) – 22%

With Brandon Aiyuk out for the year and Jauan Jennings missing Week 8, Pearsall stepped into an increased role for the 49ers’ offense. Pearsall finished with four receptions for 38 yards in the air and one carry for 39 yards on the ground while playing 59% of the snaps.

While Pearsall will likely be behind Jauan Jennings in the pecking order, he is worth stashing in leagues and may be playable each week in PPR formats. Remember, this is a first-round pick from San Francisco’s 2024 draft. The coaches want to develop him as best as possible now that he is healthy and playing.

The 49ers are an elite passing unit this season. They average 8.7 yards per pass (2nd highest in the NFL) and 253.4 passing yards per contest (5th).

DeMario Douglas – 28%

Douglas remains a formidable option in PPR leagues with Drake Maye as his quarterback. Back in Week 6, which was Maye’s first start, Douglas smashed the slate with six receptions for 92 yards and one touchdown. Since that impressive performance he has been hard to trust, scoring 3.4 points in an injury-shortened game and 3.2 points in Weeks 7 and 8.

The second-year receiver from Liberty got back on the right track in Week 9, finishing with seven receptions for 71 yards against a tough Titans defense. This stat line is a perfect barometer for Douglas moving forward: he is a heavily targeted player with a low average depth of target who struggles to find the end zone. Douglas is a great WR3 option for fantasy managers in PPR leagues and he can be relied upon for FLEX duties if needed.

Noah Brown (WAS) – 2%

After catching one of the craziest Hail Mary throws in football history last week, Brown delivered a solid game in Week 10. He finished with five receptions for 60 yards on six targets, but he remains hard to trust due to his limited snaps. Since Week 6, his snap percentage has been as follows: 64-percent, 61-percent, 81-percent, and 50-percent. This inconsistency lowers Brown’s ceiling and reliability.

Brown profiles as a WR2 within one of the league’s most potent offenses. The Commanders’ offense ranks 3rd in yards per game and yards per play, 4th in scoring per game, 5th in yards per pass, 6th in touchdowns per game, and 10th in passing yards per game. These metrics highlight the value within the Commanders’ offense, making Brown worth a shot in deeper leagues if he can find a steadier role moving forward.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) – 0%

We were on him after last week’s performance and advised desperate managers to pick him up and hold him. Then in Week 9, he finished with five receptions for 50 yards and one touchdown. Additionally, this is the fourth consecutive game that Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a touchdown. It might surprise you that over his last four games, Westbrook-Ikhine is the WR24 overall (pending Monday Night Football) and is averaging 11.2 PPR points.

Obviously, Westbrook-Ikhine belongs to one of the worst passing attacks in football. Their current quarterback, Mason Rudolph, is much more functional for the offense than the alternative, Will Levis. Westbrook-Ikhine is playable with Rudolph under center, but managers should weigh alternatives if Levis returns as the starting quarterback in Nashville.

Ray-Ray McCloud III – 13%

McCloud pops up this week due to the injury that forced Drake London out of his Week 9 game against the Cowboys. Should London miss, McCloud will get a boost in usage, but it would likely benefit his teammates Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney more. The former Clemson product finished with three receptions for 28 yards and one touchdown against the Cowboys, good for 12.5 PPR points.

This season McCloud is averaging 3.6 receptions per game, 5.3 targets per game, carries an average target distance of 7.1 yards, and scores 7.9 PPR points per contest.

Van Jefferson – 0% Ownership

They’re letting Russell Wilson take the reins in Pittsburgh. In his two starts, the quarterback has thrown for 264 and 278 yards, which brings the Steelers’ Van Jefferson into fantasy consideration.

With Wilson at quarterback, Jefferson posted two receptions for 15 yards and a touchdown against the Jets and followed that with four receptions for 62 yards against the Giants. While these performances alone may not win you a week, they signal steady production in an offense that appears to have newfound energy.

Jefferson will face the Washington Commanders in Week 10, followed by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11.

Brandin Cooks (DAL) – 10%

There has not been much to love about Cooks or the offense in Dallas this season. Before being placed on injured reserve, Cooks ranked as the WR71 overall and averaged 6.1 PPR points in four games. The big unknown that moves Cooks back into the fantasy conversation is that starting receiver CeeDee Lamb was clearly in a lot of pain due to an injury suffered against the Falcons in Week 9. Lamb is a target hog for this offense, carrying a 26.7% target share and averaging 6.6 receptions per contest. Should he miss time, it would naturally elevate Cooks and the other pass catchers in Dallas.

If Cooks is activated from injured reserve in Week 10 without Lamb playing, he will likely operate as the WR1 for this offense. The difficult pill to swallow is that Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury is worse than initially feared and he is expected to miss this game, and future games as well.

Trey Palmer (TB) – 5% |  Sterling Shepard (TB) – 7%

(Analysis to be updated after MNF)

In the first week without both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Palmer and Shepard had similar performances. Palmer recorded two receptions for 29 yards on two targets, resulting in 4.9 PPR points; while Shepard finished with three receptions for 18 yards on five targets, generating 4.8 PPR points.

From a snap count perspective, Palmer is the player to pick up, as he has outsnapped Shepard in each of the last two weeks. However, neither receivers’ production would satisfy fantasy managers if they had played them.

Ultimately, the choice between these two will fall to desperate fantasy managers. Following the Bucs’ success in Week 8, they will face the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank as the fifth-most difficult defense for opposing receivers in terms of average fantasy points allowed per game.

Prioritize their Tampa Bay teammate, Jalen McMillan; if he is already rostered, then Palmer gets the slight edge over Shepard.

 

TIGHT ENDS

 

Mike Gesicki (CIN) – 11%

Gesicki erupted in Week 10, finishing with five receptions for 100 yards and two touchdowns against a weak Raiders defense. This was his follow-up to a solid Week 8 outing against the Eagles, where he posted seven catches for 73 yards.

While the veteran tight end looks like a strong play against the Ravens in Week 10, it’s worth noting that his recent success has coincided with Tee Higgins being inactive both weeks. In fact, in Week 2 when he recorded seven receptions for 91 yards, Higgins was also inactive. Monitoring Higgins’ availability in Week 10 will be crucial.

If Higgins sits, Gesicki becomes a plug-and-play TE1 option; if Higgins plays, Gesicki remains a streamable TE2 in a favorable matchup. The Ravens have allowed 13.6 PPR points per game to tight ends this sesaon, the eighth-most in the league.

Taysom Hill (NO) – 27%

The 34-year-old veteran looked like a quality dart-throw heading into Week 9 against the Panthers, and he delivered with four catches for 41 yards and five carries for 19 yards and a touchdown, totaling 16 PPR points. This performance currently places him as the TE3 overall for Week 9, pending Monday Night Football.

Hill is once again a viable option in Week 10. If you missed the news, nearly all of the Saints’ wide receivers are injured, leaving the coaching staff needing to rely heavily on their ancillary pieces against division rival Atlanta. Hill has succeeded against the Falcons this season too, scoring two touchdowns in their Week 4 matchup.

With his versatile role, favorable matchup, and the Saints’ injury woes, Hill enters Week 10 as a top-15 tight end with the potential to finish as the TE1 overall. He does not need a touchdown to make value for managers, giving him a decent floor (for a tight end) too.

Hunter Henry (NE) – 41%

Henry has been a PPR machine with Drake Maye at quarterback. Since Maye’s promotion to starter in Week 6, Henry has transformed into a different fantasy asset. Since then, in full PPR leagues, he’s the TE7 overall and is averaging 13.1 fantasy points per game.

Henry’s usage provides a reliable floor, making him a solid option at tight end—something rare in 2024. The only drawback is his limited upside, as he’s scored just one touchdown this season. However, with Maye under center, that trend could change, keeping Henry a strong play for PPR leagues.