10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 12 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 11 Recap:

Draftkings:

Russell Wilson – 7.3 pts | QB20 | 1.24x Value

Kareem Hunt – 6 pts | RB26 | 0.89 x value

Elijah Moore – 12.9 pts | WR12 | 4.32x value 

Ricky Pearsall – 0.0 pts | WR1000 | 0.0x value WOOOOOOFFFFF

Diontae Johnson – 0.0 pts | WR1000 | 0.0x value DOUBLE WOOOOOOFFFFF

Fanduel:

Anthony Richardson – 28.08 pts| QB5 | 4.4x value

Derek Carr – 18.72 pts | QB15 | 2.6x value

Aaron Jones – 4.8 pts | RB100 | 0.6x value

DeAndre Hopkins – 4.4 pts | WR10000 | 0.7x value 

Will Dissly – 16 pts | TE5 |  3.2x Value

We got better on Fanduel again this week!! 2.3x!! Now that’s skewed by two guys, but hey! We’re taking what we can get because it’s been TOUGH to find these low owned plays that smash.

Last week we talked about punting some cheap WR’s and while we smashed on Elijah Moore, the double zero’s with DeAndre Hopkins and Ricky Pearsall reaaaaallly hurt our overall return (1.29x) and my own personal lineups!

I do still think that’s the best strategy going forward, even though we saw the return of the stud WR smash game last week so we will continue to try to identify those cheapies in great game scripts that can pop off!

One thing to always note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

 

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Jordan Love QB Green Bay Packers

Ownership: 2.5%

Salary: DK $6700

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

I’m going back to a guy that has led me to the promised land already this season, in the highest total on the slate, with way too low of ownership, and that man is Jordan Love.

The 49ers defense is not the vaunted pass defense of years past and teams have been able to move the ball through the air against them.

Stack him up with a mega cheap Romeo Doubs or Jayden Reed/Tucker Kraft who will be chalkier and you can afford a ton of studs in your lineup.

David Montgomery RB Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 6.5%

Salary: DK $6700

There is absolutely enough to go around in this offense with Monty/Gibbs. Both can get there, and while Monty hasn’t quite hit the ceiling that Gibbs has, I do think that he can flip that at some point with a couple of short TD rumbles.

Great leverage off the Gibbs chalk and if he smashes, the Gibbs chalk will fail. We call that Correlated leverage.

Malik Nabers WR New York Giants

Ownership: DK 6.82%

Salary: DK $7600

Nabers is an absolute stud, it doesn’t matter who is throwing him the ball, but given what we’ve seen so far this season I do think that Tommy DeVito is a potential upgrade for him.

Expect him to continue to get double digit targets here in a prime matchup against the Bucs who can’t stop anyone.

Devaughn Vele Denver Broncos

Ownership: 2.47%

Salary: DK $5500

Weird that Nix is going to be one of the chalk QB’s yet his receviers outside of Sutton are going to be way under owned.

Prime matchup against the Raiders in a game that could hit the over. Vele has seen a decent target share and has TD upside, which he definitely needs to get in the nuts.

George Kittle TE San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 1.5%

Salary: DK $6000

I hate paying up for TE, let me start with that. That being said, Kittle has been a huge part of this offense and I expect it to continue here. Everyone is going to flock to Bowers who had another spike week, but Kittle has been consistently really good.

Paying up for a 1% owned TE leads you to some seriously unique builds, which I love for GPP.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Tommy DeVito QB New York Giants

Ownership: FD 2.48%

Salary: FD $6000

Ya boy Tommy DeVito gets the nod here after the Giants have essentially cut Daniel Jones and refuse to play Drew Lock because of the incentives in his contract.

DeVito in his starts last year was fairly productive, and maybe most importantly he didn’t turn the ball over a ton. At 6K he has to do the bare minimum to hit value and the salary savings lets you get to guys like Saquon.

Pair him with Nabers who I love here, and then just stack up a bunch of other studs.

Will Levis QB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: FD: 2%

Salary: FD $6700

Levis is starting to look….good? He still has times where it’s like ‘What in the world are you doing buddy?’ but there are times when he looks a legitimate starter in the NFL, throwing some dots out there.

The Titans offense looked pretty good against the Vikings last week and the matchup against the Texans is a good one. Even Cooper Rush managed to throw it a bit against them last week.

Levis + Ridley will be the highest projected pairing, but don’t sleep on Westbrook-Ikhine who smashed last week.

Saquon Barkley RB Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: FD 3%

Salary: FD $10000

10k!?!! I think he’s worth it.

Barkley is producing at an incredible clip and he gets a great matchup in primetime against the Los Angeles Rams. Usage is through the roof, and if you are playing one of the cheap QB’s I listed above it is absolutely viable to play Barkley with them.

30 point upside and in a competitive game I don’t see him below 20 points unless he gets hurt.

Demario Douglas WR New England Patriots

Ownership: FD 7.12%

Salary: FD $5400

Drake Maye is….legit? Maybe the next Tom Brady?! I don’t want to go that far, but he’s been really good the last couple weeks and one of his favorite targets has been Demario Douglas.

The speedster has averaged 7 targets over his last three games and has seen his yardage tick up week after week with Maye at the helm. Tough matchup against the Dolphins on the road, but the Pats are going to be throwing and he will likely be on the receiving end of it.

Needs a TD to get in the nuts but that’s definitely a possibility here.

 

Sam LaPorta TE Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD 4.73%

Salary: FD: $5700

Coming off an AC Joint injury that held him out last week but is trending towards playing here.

This offense is incredibly productive, and while it’s hard to determine who is going to get the usage each week, at some point it’s going to be LaPorta’s turn and the Colts are one of the worst at defending opposing TE’s in the league.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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