Week 9 Waiver Wire – NFL Fantasy Football

DFS Army’s Gthom goes over the waiver wire targets for this week. These waiver wire targets are normally available in 50-percent of ESPN leagues.

Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call X, or Twitter, or whatever it’s called @GarettThomas.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

Bo Nix (DEN) – 36%

Nix has excelled over the past four weeks, averaging 21.9 fantasy points per game. In his Week 8 matchup against the Panthers, he completed 28 of 37 passes for 284 yards and three touchdowns, adding five carries for four rushing yards and another touchdown.

Next up, he faces the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. Their defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, averaging 21.7 points per game, which has spiked to 29.4 points over their last four games.

Nix now appears to be a reliable fantasy asset, delivering both through the air and on the ground—providing managers with a solid floor to trust.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – 48%

Returning to action after a Week 2 concussion, Tagovailoa completed his Week 8 contest 28 of 38 for 234 yards and one touchdown, adding 13 rushing yards on three carries in a 27-28 loss to the Cardinals. This performance resulted in 14.66 fantasy points, placing him on the cusp of a QB2/QB3 finish for the week—a disappointing outcome for fantasy managers in need of quarterback help.

Tua’s fantasy profile is well established: he’s a high-upside quarterback with elite accuracy and a strong receiving corps, making him a weekly starter in favorable matchups. However, his high ceiling comes with occasional inconsistency. His Week 9 matchup against Buffalo may prove challenging, as his career averages against them include 199.9 passing yards, a 61.9% completion rate, 1.3 interceptions, and 0.9 touchdowns per game.

Week 10 and 11 bring more favorable matchups as he faces the Rams and Raiders. Pick up Tagovailoa this week and consider keeping him on your bench for better days; he likely won’t be available after this week’s waiver run.

Jameis Winston (CLE) – 3%

Winson is back to producing fantasy points and hasn’t missed a beat. In his game against the Ravens, he went 27 of 41 for 334 yards and three touchdowns, tallying 25.5 fantasy points—likely putting him in line for a top-12 finish for Week 8.

With DeShaun Watson out for the rest of the 2024 season, Winston offers a fresh start for Cleveland’s fantasy assets. Under his leadership the Browns scored over 20 points for the first time this season, plus Cleveland’s starting pass catchers all posted 10 or more PPR fantasy points in Week 8—another “first” for the Browns in 2024.

Winston should be rostered in Superflex and two-QB leagues. He’ll face the Chargers in Week 9 before a bye in Week 10. Though the Chargers are tough on opposing quarterbacks, Winston is still a viable play.

Matthew Stafford (LAR) – 19%

Stafford’s receiver room was finally healthy (welcome back Puka Nacua), and his fantasy production reflected it. He and the Rams beat the Vikings 30-20, with Stafford completing 25 of 34 passes for 279 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. His 25.7 fantasy points were his highest single-week total since Week 7 of the 2021 season, so this level of production is likely an outlier. But he could repeat against the Seahawks in Week 9.

In Week 8, Seattle allowed Bills quarterback Josh Allen to finish with 20.8 fantasy points, underscoring Seattle’s struggles against opposing quarterbacks. They have given up 16.3 fantasy points per game to the position this season. Over the last five weeks, that average has increased to 20.6 points.

As a Ram, Stafford’s career averages against the Seahawks are 283.3 passing yards, a 91.4 passer rating, a 63.7% completion rate, 1.0 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions. While those numbers may not blow fantasy managers away, Seattle’s defense has been susceptible to quarterbacks, and their strong offense can create back-and-forth games that boost fantasy production for both teams.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

Tyrone Tracy Jr (NYG) – 46%

It was the Tracy show for the Giants against the Steelers on Monday Night Football. Tracy finished with 20 carries for 145 yards and one touchdown on the ground, adding two receptions for five yards on three targets. This performance yielded 23 PPR points, landing him a top-six finish at the position.

Tracy is undoubtedly the top running back pickup this week. Although he exited late in the fourth quarter with an apparent head injury, even if he misses a game, he remains the best playmaker in this backfield and should keep his starting role going forward.

Alexander Mattison (LV) – 54%

Most fantasy analysts expected limited production from Mattison heading into a game against the Chiefs. Despite facing an elite defense, Mattison managed to provide enough production for managers needing RB3/FLEX help. He finished with 14 carries for 15 yards on the ground but saved PPR managers with five catches for 29 yards.

Week 9 offers a more favorable outlook for Mattison compared to Week 8. The Raiders will travel to face the Bengals, who have been average against opposing running backs, allowing 22.1 PPR points per game. On the positive side, Cincinnati ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed per game (139.3) and 29th in rushing touchdowns allowed per game (1.4).

Mattison handled 70.3% of the Raiders’ running back opportunities in Week 8 which is elite usage. But the Raiders aren’t a good football team, which usually correlates to low efficiency and increased volatility at the running back position. While there’s bust risk, Mattison’s volume should remain intact, keeping him on the radar for Week 9.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL) – 50%

There isn’t much to love about Allgeier at the moment, but he can provide low-level running back production if you’re in a pinch. Additionally, he serves as an elite handcuff should Bijan Robinson’s health become uncertain.

In Week 8 against the Bucs, Allgeier carried the ball 12 times for 33 rushing yards, totaling 3.3 fantasy points. This season, he’s averaging 44 rushing yards on 8.5 carries per game, with a rate of 5.18 yards per carry, 0.13 touchdowns, along with 1.0 reception and 7.13 receiving yards per game.

Braelon Allen (NYJ) – 24%

After a notable reduction in his role during Weeks 6 and 7, Allen was utilized much more in Week 8 against the Patriots. He finished with 12 carries for 32 yards (2.67 yards per carry) and salvaged his fantasy production with one goal-line touchdown.

Allen profiles as a player who remains off starting lineups but can provide some level of production if managers are out of options at the running back position. The Jets seem to value his talent, albeit in a limited role, and he continues to vulture fantasy production away from Breece Hall. He is also a player who would see his usage increase substantially if Hall were to get injured.

Allen averages 23.4 rushing yards, 6.13 carries, 3.82 yards per carry, and 0.25 touchdowns on the ground, while also contributing 1.13 receptions for 9.25 receiving yards and 0.13 touchdowns per game.

Isaac Guerendo (SF) – 4%

An in-game injury to Jordan Mason makes Guerendo a potential waiver-wire addition to cover. It’s too early in the week to know the extent of Mason’s injury but his head coach mentioned that he could have returned against the Cowboys, if necessary. The 49ers will head into their BYE for Week 9.

Once Guerendo entered the game against Dallas, he finished with 14 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown, adding 3 receptions for 17 yards on four targets. His 19.2 PPR points will likely place him as a top-12 running back for Week 8.

It’s a long shot for Guerendo to remain fantasy-relevant after the 49ers’ BYE, but stranger things have happened. Jordan Mason has left two of his last three games, and it’s uncertain how long his injury will linger. Additionally, San Francisco has a history of downplaying the severity of injuries (see Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel).

Lastly, McCaffrey is expected to return in Week 10, though it’s not guaranteed. If McCaffrey is limited (or misses) and Mason remains sidelined, Guerendo could be a strong FLEX option in Week 10. This long-shot scenario likely keeps Guerendo off the radar for most fantasy managers, but deeper leagues may find him worth a stash.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Cedric Tillman (CLE) – 16%

Tillman breathed life into fantasy lineups in Week 8 with a star performance, catching seven passes for 99 yards and two touchdowns against a porous Baltimore Ravens secondary. Just one week prior, Tillman tallied eight catches for 81 yards against the Bengals. His respective PPR scores for these games were 28.9 and 18.1

Through these recent performances Tillman looks like the Browns’ answer at receiver, filling the role vacated by Amari Cooper. This marks Tillman’s second straight week leading the Browns’ receiving corps. Best of all, he now has a quarterback in Jameis Winston who can consistently produce fantasy points for his receivers.

The second-year Browns’ receiver is shaping up to be a potential league-winning pickup, making him worth a significant FAAB bid and high-priority waiver claim.

Josh Downs (IND) – 49%

My analysis continues to presume a decline in production for Josh Downs due to his quarterback being one of the worst in the NFL. But Downs continues to produce for fantasy, despite being attached to a quarterback with a 44% completion percentage. This time, he achieved a stat line of four receptions for 109 yards and one touchdown, good for 22.2 PPR points. Downs fell one yard shy of securing his second touchdown of the game, too.

While Downs had a big week against the Texans, expect volatility in his performance going forward. He finished with just 1.3 PPR points in Week 7 against the Dolphins.

His next opponent will be the Minnesota Vikings. While the Vikings’ defense has been solid, they are vulnerable to opposing wide receivers. They are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the receiver position in the NFL, with an average of 48.3 PPR points. Additionally, they allow the 2nd-most receptions and are tied for the 3rd-most touchdowns and yards allowed to receivers.

Downs is a volatile WR2 who can pop off for a top-12 finish on any given week. On paper, his matchup against the Vikings looks exploitable. But will his quarterback get him the ball enough?

It’s worth noting that head coach Shane Steichen is ‘evaluating everything [regarding the starter against Minnesota].’ Downs becomes a must play, high-end, WR2 if Joe Flacco starts in place of Richardson.

Jalen McMillan (TB) – 41%

One game removed from losing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for the near future, Jalen McMillan stepped into a new role. McMillan saw the most snaps of his 2024 season and delivered 4 receptions for 35 yards on seven targets, which tallied 9.2 PPR points.

Analyzing this passing offense, they hardly skipped a beat in terms of fantasy production. Tampa Bay ended the day with over 300 passing yards and three passing touchdowns.

While the Bucs found success in Week 8, they will face a much tougher defensive opponent in Week 9. Tampa Bay will go up against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are the fifth-toughest defense against opposing receivers when considering average fantasy points allowed per game to the position.

McMillan should be picked up due to the clear increase in his role, but it will be hard to trust his fantasy output against tough upcoming opponents: Kansas City and San Francisco.

Ricky Pearsall (SF) – 22%

With Brandon Aiyuk out for the year and Jauan Jennings missing Week 8, Pearsall stepped into an increased role for the 49ers’ offense. Pearsall finished with four receptions for 38 yards in the air and one carry for 39 yards on the ground while playing 59% of the snaps.

Now the 49ers will head into their BYE week, making it tougher for fantasy managers to hold onto Pearsall for his next game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10.

While Pearsall will likely be behind Jauan Jennings in the pecking order, he is worth stashing in leagues and may be playable each week in PPR formats. Remember, this is a first-round pick from San Francisco’s 2024 draft. The coaches want to develop him as best as possible now that he is healthy and playing.

The 49ers are an elite passing unit this season. They average 8.7 yards per pass (3rd highest in the NFL) and 253.4 passing yards per contest (4th highest). While it’s unlikely, perhaps Pearsall can surpass Jennings’ assumed fantasy production once Jennings returns from injury.

Elijah Moore (CLE) – 1%

All the Browns’ pass catchers are back on the fantasy radar following Jameis Winston becoming the starting quarterback. Week 8 was the first game with Winston leading the way, and Moore finished with eight receptions for 85 yards on 12 targets. This marked Moore’s first back-to-back weeks with 10 or more PPR points this season—and the first time since Weeks 10 and 11 in 2023.

While his snap count indicates that his role has not expanded much, it’s worth noting that he is being targeted at a significantly higher rate than when Watson led the offense. Moore has recorded 14 targets across his last two games, a volume he did not achieve in Weeks 3-6 combined.

Moore profiles as a potentially solid FLEX option in full-PPR formats going forward, although he does face a tough matchup against the Chargers in Week 9. The Browns will be on BYE in Week 10.

Gabe Davis (JAX) – 28%

Christian Kirk is out for the remainder of the season following Week 8, due to a broken collarbone. Additionally, the other starting wide receiver, Bryan Thomas Jr., may miss Week 9 with an injury as well. If both receivers are unable to play, this leaves Gabe Davis as the best option at receiver. Even if Thomas Jr. plays, Davis should see a slight increase in usage.

Davis will need to be monitored leading into Week 9, however. He left his Week 8 contest against the Packers early due to a shoulder injury, finishing with just 16% of snaps played and scoring no fantasy points. If somehow all three of these Jacksonville receivers miss Week 9, it probably leaves the offense in shambles and managers should shy away unless they are desperate.

Buyer beware: Davis has routinely shined when fantasy managers dare not play him, and busted when managers “trust” him. While an increase in his role is likely, it may not be enough to move the needle since Jacksonville’s passing offense is often underwhelming.

Jerry Jeudy (CLE) – 49%

It is a bit surprising that Jeudy seems to be the fourth option in this passing attack under their new quarterback. With two weeks of usage and multiple quarterbacks, Jeudy has been outscored by the following players each week: Cedric Tillman, David Njoku, and even Elijah Moore. Week 8 was much better for Jeudy than his Week 7 performance, as he finished with 5 receptions for 79 yards against the Ravens, scoring 12.9 PPR points—still below the aforementioned names.

Jeudy is technically the starting WR1 for this offense when examining the snap counts. However, over the last two weeks, the target share appears to be shifting towards Cedric Tillman and David Njoku. Perhaps Jeudy was a little slow out of the gate, or it may be an indictment of his regressing talent. Jeudy has a 15% target rate and a target separation of 1.27 yards. Among eligible receivers, those metrics rank 89th and 78th, respectively.

Prioritize Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore for the time being. If you cannot secure one of those players, then Jeudy is still a low-end WR3/FLEX option.

Van Jefferson – 0% Ownership

They are letting Russ cook in Pittsburgh. In his two starts, the quarterback has thrown for 264 and 278 yards, which brings the Steelers’ Van Jefferson into fantasy consideration.

With Wilson at quarterback, Jefferson posted two receptions for 15 yards and a touchdown against the Jets and followed that with four receptions for 62 yards against the Giants. While these performances alone may not win you a week, they signal potentially steady production in an offense that appears to have newfound energy.

Jefferson will likely make it through waivers since the Steelers are on a bye in Week 9, but he’ll return to face the Washington Commanders, followed by the Baltimore Ravens.

Trey Palmer (TB) – 7% |  Sterling Shepard (TB) – 10%

In the first week without both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Palmer and Shepard had similar performances. Palmer recorded two receptions for 29 yards on two targets, resulting in 4.9 PPR points; while Shepard finished with three receptions for 18 yards on five targets, generating 4.8 PPR points.

From a snap count perspective, Palmer is the player to pick up, as he has outsnapped Shepard in each of the last two weeks. However, neither receivers’ production would satisfy fantasy managers if they had played them.

Ultimately, the choice between these two will fall to desperate fantasy managers. Following the Bucs’ success in Week 8, they will face the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank as the fifth-most difficult defense for opposing receivers in terms of average fantasy points allowed per game.

Prioritize their Tampa Bay teammate, Jalen McMillan; if he is already rostered, then Palmer gets the slight edge over Shepard.

Christian Watson (GB) – 48%

While Watson remains on waivers heading into Week 9, it’s his quarterback you need to worry about. Jordan Love exited Week 8’s game against the Jaguars early due to a groin injury. Reports suggest Love’s injury is minor—a strain—keeping Green Bay’s passing options in play if Love suits up in Week 9 against the Lions.

As for Watson, his fantasy profile has always been feast-or-famine. However, in 2024, he’s left fantasy managers more starved than satisfied. He has three games with fewer than 1.6 PPR points, including two complete zeroes on the stat sheet. His best performance so far was only 15.8 PPR points in Week 7.

So, why consider Watson? It’s the firepower of the passing attack he’s attached to. Despite missing two games, his quarterback has thrown the third-most touchdowns, is 4th in air yards per attempt, has thrown the 6th-most deep balls and 6th-most red zone attempts. In other words this offense is efficient, scores touchdowns, and can generate a high volume of fantasy points.

Desperate fantasy managers could take a chance on Watson and hope for a touchdown or a few deep completions. He played a season-high 74% of snaps against the Jaguars, possibly indicating that he’s getting healthier as the season progresses.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) – 0%

The big news is that DeAndre Hopkins has finally left Nashville, leaving his targets up for grabs. In a one-week sample, Westbrook-Ikhine appears to be the primary beneficiary. In a blowout loss to the Lions, Westbrook-Ikhine finished with two receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown on four targets.

From Week 7 to Week 8, Westbrook-Ikhine’s snap share jumped from 47% to 92%—easily his highest this season. This increase might not have happened if his teammate Treylon Burks wasn’t on injured reserve, but perhaps so. Burks has been regressing since entering the NFL.

Will Westbrook-Ikhine become a reliable weekly fantasy option? That seems unlikely, especially given Tennessee’s quarterback situation. Currently, Tennessee’s passing offense ranks 32nd in interception rate, 31st in passing yards per game, 29th in yards per completion, and 25th in completion percentage. However, with the kind of playing time he saw in Week 8, Westbrook-Ikhine may have the opportunity to become fantasy relevant.

For now, leave Westbrook-Ikhine for desperate situations or deeper leagues. Additionally, the return of Burks may lower Westbrook-Ikhine on the depth chart (Burks is least two games away from returning).

 

TIGHT ENDS

 

Hunter Henry (NE) – 41%

Five catches for 45 yards on six targets was a bit disappointing when examining the production of all NFL tight ends in Week 8, but Henry’s 9.5 PPR points could have been much worse. That stat line pretty much sums up Henry’s fantasy production: he gets peppered with targets but doesn’t get much action around the end zone. This makes him an option for full PPR leagues where he sits as the TE10 overall and TE14 on a points per game basis (prior to Monday Night Football)

Henry’s production will largely rest on the health of his quarterback, Drake Maye. Maye exited his Week 8 contest early and was diagnosed with a concussion. While it is uncertain whether Maye will be ruled out for Week 9, most players tend to miss at least one week with a concussion (sometimes two). If Maye misses, Henry becomes a player to leave on your bench in Week 9.

Noah Fant (SEA) – 9%

Fant made an appearance on the fantasy radar after D.K. Metcalf was announced to be week-to-week with an injury following Week 8’s game against the Falcons. Despite Metcalf’s absence, there was no increase in Fant’s usage; he finished with three catches for 22 yards on 61% of snaps.

The 26-year-old tight end can be played in Week 9 due to his matchup and the possibility that Metcalf may miss another game. Fant and the Seahawks will host the Rams, who allow the 3rd-most fantasy points to the tight end position, with an average of 15.8 PPR points. Additionally, against opposing tight ends, the Rams have allowed the 3rd-most touchdowns and the 10th-most receiving yards.

Fant should be viewed as a “streaming option” rather than a weekly starter. His matchup is favorable on paper for Week 9, and he becomes more intriguing if Metcalf is sidelined once again.

Tyler Conklin (NYJ) – 28%

Conklin continues his season as a middling tight end, carrying more value in full PPR leagues. After his Week 8 production of one touchdown on three catches for 42 yards, he is currently the TE14 overall in full PPR leagues and TE21 from a points per game perspective.

The Jets and Conklin will host the Houston Texans in Week 9. The Texans have successfully suppressed tight end production this season, but they seem to allow touchdowns at a higher rate than they should. Despite holding opposing tight ends to the NFL’s lowest fantasy points per game, with an average of 6.9 PPR points, they are tied for the eighth-most touchdowns allowed to the position.

There are worse options than Conklin in Week 9. While his matchup is not the best, hopefully, his usage will carry fantasy managers enough.

Taysom Hill (NO) – 20%

Your high-risk, high-reward option for the tight end position in Week 9 is Taysom Hill. The Saints will travel to play the Carolina Panthers in a divisional rivalry game. Hill is a Swiss Army knife for fantasy football, meaning he can catch, run, or throw for a touchdown at any time due to his unique role within the Saints’ offense.

While we have seen Hill largely disappoint from a week-to-week standpoint throughout his career, he tends to go off for fantasy points in the right matchup. Carolina may present that environment for Hill to thrive, as the Panthers allow an average of 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game. It would not be surprising to see Hill receive some of the red zone carries, which could lead to one or more touchdowns.

This Saints’ offense will remain limited as long as a backup quarterback is under center. If Derek Carr returns, we should see the offense become much more efficient for fantasy, potentially boosting Hill’s production.