The Shark Lab’s research is a different level of analysis to weekly lineup construction, placing value on lineup deconstruction. The Shark Lab performs research on deconstructing lineups to derive metrics to determine the players per position that can make optimal lineup combinations. The combinations are based upon hundreds of Millionaire Maker contest’s winning top twenty lineup data. The Shark Lab encompasses a high level of research and analysis to lineup construction that determines weekly main slate NFL games to target by position (quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, defense).
During the 2024 NFL season, the Shark Lab is providing DFS Army members with a Cheat Sheet of the players it’ll be targeting in its weekly DraftKings main slate. Additionally, the Shark Lab has its own show on Thursday evenings to break down the main slate and Tournament Tactics show on Fridays. It’s a great opportunity for you as a member to gain insight on tournament plays for that week’s main slate. Finally, every week of the 2024 NFL season, the Shark Lab will be providing members in Discord back test results for the prior week’s main slate with screen shots of the settings that were used to capture results to win or place top 20 in the Milly Maker contest.
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Winning the Million Dollar Game: Secrets to DraftKings Millionaire Maker
Chronicling the 2024 Milly Maker
Targeting the right games to construct your Milly Maker lineups around is vital to your success within the contest. Being on the right weekly games is as important to the success of your lineups as is being on the right plays for the week.
Winning the Million Dollar Game provides Daily Fantasy Sports players with a wealth of knowledge and secrets to Win DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest with respect to the Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End positions, Defenses, and Stacks. To enhance your game as a Daily Fantasy Sport player, the Shark Lab highly advises you to purchase Winning the Million Dollar Game to unveil those secrets.
Tools to use in the development of your lineups in addition to the Shark Lab’s NFL Cheat Sheets:
- Winning the Million Dollar Game Book
- Shark Lab’s NFL Cheat Sheets – The Burns Cheat Sheets
- Shark Lab’s Weekly Back Test Results
- Shark Lab’s Quarterly Milly Maker Contest Results
- Domination Station – The DraftKings Manual
- Domination Station – The FanDuel Manual
- Domination Station FPTS/$
- Domination Station Rating Metric
- Other DFS Army Coaches’ articles
Quarterbacks
The below efficiency metrics best predict how a QB will perform in the next week’s fantasy output when looking at relative sample sizes over the course of a given period during the NFL season. These metrics outweigh volume, which has virtually no correlation to the next week’s fantasy output:
- Touchdown Rate
- Yards Per Attempt Passing
- Yards Per Game
- Completion Percentage
The most correlated data points when using betting lines unveiled to determine top QB plays:
- Implied Team Totals
- Over/Under
- Favorites
Use salary ranges to your advantage on a weekly basis to develop your QB player pool. During the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, 93% of the winning DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineups rostered a QB in both the $5,000 and $6,000 salary ranges, where the $5,000 encompassed 60% of that percentage. The dynamic of salary ranges play a significant role in selecting QBs that may place lineups in the top 20.
Understanding all aspects of what makes a QB a good play versus not a good play. Consider a defense’s average fantasy points against the QB position. Rostering QBs versus defenses that allow 15th to 32ndmost average fantasy points against the QB position were a winning proposition during the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season at 78%.
QBR is another piece of the puzzle in the development of your QB player pool. Target QBs with a QBR equal to or in excess of 90. During the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, rostering QBs with a QBR equal to or in excess of 90 was a winning proposition 57% of the time.
The four-efficiency metrics that the Shark Lab looks at weekly as mentioned above to best predict how a QB will perform in the next week’s fantasy output when looking at relative sample sizes over the course of a given period during the NFL season are:
- Touchdown Rate
- Yards Per Attempt Passing
- Yards Per Game
- Completion Percentage
Over the course of the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups rostered QBs that had a touchdown rate of 3% or greater at 62% of the time, yards per attempt passing of 6.5 yards or greater at 83% of the time, yards per game of 225 yards or greater at 56% of the time, and a completion percentage of 60% or greater at 73% of the time.
A metric the Shark Lab is chronicling during the 2024 NFL season is whether defensive scheme plays a factor in a QBs performance to enter into the top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups. During the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, QBs who played against defenses that schemed defensively for zone at least 50% of the game accounted for 85% of the QBs used in the top twenty Milly Maker lineups.
2024 NFL Season (Through 4 Weeks)
81 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 81 QBs Rostered
Through the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, there were 81 total Milly Maker lineups researched with 81 QBs rostered. During week 3, there was a tie in the top twenty lineups that occurred. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 48 lineups that rostered a favored QB. Of those lineups, there were 30 lineups (63%) that rostered a home favored QB and 97% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. There were 18 (37%) lineups that rostered an away favored QB. Of those lineups, 78% targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. There were 33 lineups that rostered an underdog QB. Of those lineups, there were 18 lineups (55%) that rostered a home underdog QB and 89% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of less than 24. There were 15 (45%) lineups that rostered an away underdog QB. Of those lineups, 53% targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24, and 47% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team total of less than 24.
Running Backs
The following volume metrics best predict how an RB may perform in the future week’s fantasy output when looking at relative sample sizes over the course of a given period of time during the NFL season:
- Total Yardage
- Opportunities (Rush Attempts and Pass Targets)
- Rush Yards
- Rush Attempts
- Pass Targets
- Receiving Yards
- Receptions
The most correlated data points when using betting lines were unveiled to determine top RB plays:
- Implied Team Totals
- Favorites
Understanding the salary ranges that generate the most successful lineup construction is incredibly valuable information to have at our disposal. Refining our lineup construction decisions based on salary ranges will help generate better lineups over the course of the season.
- Salary combinations for RBs with “No RB in the FLEX position” and “RB in the FLEX position” allow players to see salary pattern combinations for the RB1, RB2, along with the FLEX position to determine how much salary to attribute holistically to the RB position each week. This higher level of analyzing lineups can be the difference maker in a profitable week with the potential of taking down tournaments.
Ownership percentages is a tool to help players gain an edge on the competition. Players don’t have to be contrarian at the RB position in their roster construction; they need to attack RBs that have high-end volume metrics to capture the most amount of fantasy points at the RB position.
Target RBs against defenses that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of surrendering fantasy points to the RB position.
Target offenses with strong rushing attacks in terms of rush DVOA.
2024 NFL Season (Through 4 Weeks)
81 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 212 RBs Rostered
Through the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, there were 81 total Milly Maker lineups researched with 212 RBs rostered. During week 3, there was a tie in the top twenty lineups that occurred. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 132 lineups that rostered a favored RB. Of those lineups, there were 72 lineups (55%) that rostered a home favored RB and 53% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 60 (45%) lineups that rostered an away favored RB. Of those lineups, 72% targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of 24 or greater. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 80 lineups that rostered an underdog RB. Of those lineups, there were 26 lineups (33%) that rostered a home underdog RB and 54% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 54 (67%) lineups that rostered an away underdog RB. Of those lineups, 67% targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of less than 24, and 33% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team total of less than 24.
Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, the top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses who surrendered fantasy points to the RB position ranked between 15th to 32nd in the league (league’s worst teams at giving up fantasy points to the RB position) 59% of the time. The top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups targeted RBs against defensive lines that ranked between 15th and 32nd in the league in terms of adjusted line yards 62% of the time.
Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, the top twenty winning Milly Maker lineup’s average salaries for RB1 was $6,574 and RB2 was $6,399. The dynamic of salary ranges played a significant role in the selection of RBs that placed lineups in the top 20. The $6,000 salary range was the most successful during the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season at 46%. The next closest salary range that had success in 2024 was the $7,000 salary range at 29% and the $5,000 salary range at 21%. Rostering high salaried RBs didn’t fare well in 2023, $8,000 and $9,000 salary ranges RBs were rostered 0% of the time.
Ownership per position has a massive impact on whether your lineups will scale the leaderboards in tourneys. At the RB positions, you DO NOT have to take a contrarian approach in your lineup construction. In fact, a contrarian approach at the RB position is a detriment to your lineups. Through the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the average ownership for RB1 was 13.80% and RB2 was 16.27%.
Wide Receivers
The below volume metrics best predict how a WR may perform in future week’s fantasy output when looking at relative sample sizes over the course of a given period during the NFL season:
- Targets
- Receptions
- Receiving Yards
- Target Share
- Air Yards Share
- Yards per Target
The most correlated data points when using betting lines unveiled to determine top RB plays:
- Implied Team Totals
- Over/Under
- Favorites
Understanding the salary ranges that generate the most successful lineup construction is incredibly valuable information to have at our disposal. Over the course of the season, refining our lineup construction decisions based on salary ranges will help generate better lineups for the remainder of the season.
Salary combinations for WRs with “No WR in the FLEX position” and “WR in the FLEX position” allow players to see salary pattern combinations for the WR1, WR2, WR3 along with the FLEX position to determine how much salary to attribute holistically to the WR position on a weekly basis. This higher level of analyzing lineups can be the difference maker to a profitable week with the potential to take down tournaments.
Ownership percentages is a fantastic tool to help players gain an edge on the competition. The WR lineup spots are valuable real estate where players can be contrarian and gain an edge on the competition in their roster construction. A low volume WR who has the potential to catch a few targets, gain high yardage, and score a touchdown in a contest can break open a slate at low ownership, the pearls of the sea.
Target WRs against defenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of surrendering fantasy points to the WR position.
Target WRs against defenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL and were suspect at applying pressure on the QB and are bottom tier defenses against the pass.
Understand WR versus CB matchups. These matchups can help a player find those WRs in great matchups and stay away from those WRs in bad matchups.
Target WRs on offenses with strong passing attacks in terms of pass DVOA, especially against defenses that have weak defensive line ranks and surrender a high amount of fantasy points to the WR position.
2024 NFL Season (Through 4 Weeks)
81 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 268 WRs Rostered
Through the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, there were 81 total Milly Maker lineups researched with 268 WRs rostered. During week 3, there was a tie in the top twenty lineups that occurred. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 165 lineups that rostered a favored WR. Of those lineups, there were 104 lineups (63%) that rostered a home favored WR and 51% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24, and 29% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team total of 24 or greater. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 61 (37%) lineups that rostered an away favored WR. Of those lineups, 44% targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24, and 36% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team total of 24 or greater. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 103 lineups that rostered an underdog WR. Of those lineups, there were 32 lineups (31%) that rostered a home underdog WR and 69% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of less than 24. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 71 (69%) lineups that rostered an away underdog WR. Of those lineups, 70% targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24.
Through the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses who surrendered fantasy points to the WR position ranked between 15th to 32nd in the league (league’s worst teams at giving up fantasy points to the WR position) 77% of the time.
The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineup’s average salaries for WR1 was $6,602, WR2 was $5,758, and WR3 was $5,520. The salary ranges during the NFL season were relatively flat, with the $5,000 salary was the most successful during the start of the 2024 NFL season at 30%. The $6,000 salary range was 25%, $4,000 salary range at 22%, and the $7,000 salary range at 13%. The WR position has less disparity amongst the salary ranges than any other roster position with your lineup.
Ownership per position has a massive impact on whether your lineups will scale the leaderboards in tourneys. At the WR position, ownerships fluctuate more than the other positions and allow you to be more contrarian in your player pool selection. The average ownership for WR1 was 17.44%, WR2 was 9.52% and WR3 was 10.36%.
Tight Ends
The below volume metrics best predict how a TE would perform in the next week’s fantasy output when looking at relative sample sizes over the course of a given period in time during the NFL season:
- Target Share
- Targets
- Receiving Yards
- Receptions
- Air Yards Share
The most correlated data points when using betting lines unveiled to determine top TE plays were:
- Favorites
- Implied Team Totals
- Over/Under
Understanding the salary ranges that generate the most successful lineup construction is incredibly valuable information to have at our disposal. Over the course of the season, refining our lineup construction decisions based on salary ranges will help generate better lineups throughout the remainder of the season.
Ownership percentages is a fantastic tool to help players gain an edge on the competition.
Target TEs against defenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of surrendering fantasy points to the TE position.
Target TEs against defenses that: rank in the bottom half of the NFL; were suspect at getting pressure on the QB; and are bottom-tier defenses against the pass.
2024 NFL Season (Through 4 Weeks)
81 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 87 TEs Rostered
Through the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, there were 81 total Milly Maker lineups researched with 87 TEs rostered. During week 3, there was a tie in the top twenty lineups that occurred. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 44 lineups that rostered a favored TE. Of those lineups, there were 28 lineups (64%) that rostered a home favored TE and 86% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 16 (36%) lineups that rostered an away favored TE. Of those lineups, 69% targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 43 lineups that rostered an underdog TE. Of those lineups, there were 14 lineups (33%) that rostered a home underdog WR and 86% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of less than 24. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 29 (67%) lineups that rostered an away underdog WR. Of those lineups, 66% targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24.
The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses who surrendered fantasy points to the TE position ranked between 15th to 32nd in the league (league’s worst teams at giving up fantasy points to the TE position) 60% of the time. The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups targeted TEs who were targeted in the red zone at 15% or greater 57% of the time.
The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineup’s average salaries for TE was $4,240. The salary ranges that were the most successful during the start of the 2024 NFL season were $4,000 salary range at 41%, $3,000 salary range at 40%, and $5,000 salary range at 11%.
Ownership per position has a massive impact on whether your lineups will scale the leaderboards in tourneys. At the TE position, ownerships are flatter but you can still be contrarian in your player pool selection per salary range. The average ownership for TE was 7.05%.
Defenses
The most correlated data points when using betting lines unveiled to determine top DST plays were:
- Over/Under
- Implied Team Totals
- Spread
During the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, the $3,000 salary range was the sweet spot to target defenses to roster at 58%, followed by the $2,000 salary range at 42%.
Understand how salary trends could have an impact on the upcoming NFL daily fantasy season to get ahead of the curve.
Target defenses to roster that have solid defensive lines and are in the Top 15 in the NFL at applying pressure on the QB position.
Target defenses to roster that are going up against offensive lines susceptible to giving up pressures onto the QB position.
Target QBs who throw a lot of interceptions over the course of a season.
Target defenses that force a lot of turnovers via fumbles and interceptions, as these lead to a greater amount of fantasy points scored via the rostered defense.
2024 NFL Season (Through 4 Weeks)
81 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 81 DSTs Rostered
Through the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, there were 81 total Milly Maker lineups researched with 81 DSTs rostered. During week 3, there was a tie in the top twenty lineups that occurred. Over the course of the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, there were 54 lineups that rostered a favored DST. Of those lineups, there were 44 lineups (81%) that rostered a home favored DST and 86% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. There were 10 (19%) lineups that rostered an away favored DST. Of those lineups, 90% targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. There were 27 lineups that rostered an underdog DST. Of those lineups, there were 20 lineups (77%) that rostered a home underdog DST and 65% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of less than 24. There were 7 (23%) lineups that rostered an away underdog DST. Of those lineups, 100% targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24.
It’s favorable in the coming weeks to roster home DSTs, whether they are favorites or underdogs. Pay specific attention to Vegas Lines and roster home favorites with game totals of less than 45 total points and implied team total of less than 24; and home underdogs with game totals of 45 or greater and implied team total of less than 24. Away favored defenses should also be in play in the coming weeks, but until more data becomes available, you should roster away favored defenses that have Vegas Lines of game totals of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24.