10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 7 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 6 Recap:

Draftkings:

Baker Mayfield – 31.9 pts | QB1 | 4.9x value

Tyjae Spears – 2.7 pts | RB100 | 0.52x value (injured)

Jameson Williams – 17.7 pts | WR12 | 3.1x value

Ja’Lynn Polk – 1.4 pts | WR100000 | 0.39x value

Kyle Pitts – 10 pts | TE8  | 2.27x value

Fanduel:

Jared Goff – 28.1 pts| QB2 | 3.6x value

Jordan Love – 26.2 pts | QB3 | 3.1x value

Tyrone Tracy Jr. – 19.7 pts | RB8 | 3.4x value

Darnell Mooney – 5.3 pts | WR40 | 0.8x value 

A.J. Brown – 23.6 pts | WR2|  2.9x value

 

QB1, QB2, AND QB3 on the week were ALL from the 10 under 10 article last week! How ya like them apples?!?

DK had an average return of 2.24x and FD was 2.76x giving us our best overall week of the season on both sites, obviously led by the elite QB plays.

We also nailed the WR2 on the week in AJ Brown, and one of the best values on the slate in Tyrone Tracy Jr. (I love having the hammer game on Fanduel now!).

Overall, a really strong week for the article, and am hopeful that I was able to help you take down a GPP or at the very least find yourself in the green!

One thing to note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Sam Darnold  QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: 7.6%

Salary: DK $6200

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

One of those guys, for about the MILLIONTH week in a row is….Sam Darnold.

When will people learn? WHEN?!

Darnold is an elite QB, this guy was the offensive player of the month in September! He’s in a high total game…AT HOME. AND HIS STARTING RB IS HURT!

What are we doing here?! Play Sam Darnold. Stack him with Jefferson or Addison. Run it back with Williams/Amon Ra, Win a GPP. It’s that simple.

 

Nick Chubb RB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 1.5%

Salary: DK $6000

Chubb is likely back from injury this week and is legitimately the only player on the Browns that is any good. Stefanski has said that there’s no set limit on the number of touches he’ll get but I think 15ish is a good starting point after his long absence and at this decreased price, I think Chubb could potentially smash value here.

Matchup against Bengals at home is about as prime as it gets. My grandma could get first downs against the Bengals front 7. Really think Chubb has GPP winning potential in his first game back.

Noah Brown WR Washington Commanders

Ownership: DK 6.4%

Salary: DK $4000

Everyone is going to play cheap Juju Smith Schuster here, and I don’t hate that play in the least, but Noah Brown is a VERY intriguing pivot as the Commanders take on the lowly Panthers.

Getting tons of volume (8 targets last week) and looks great in this offense. The only concern here is that the Commanders just smash the football down the Panthers throats because they can’t stop a fly, and the passing game doesn’t need to do much (similar to what happened with the Falcons last week).

Still at this price point, it’s not going to take much for Brown to pay off his salary. A couple grabs and he’s there.

Tank Dell WR Houston Texans

Ownership: 8.3%

Salary: DK $6500

Dell has stepped into a much bigger role with Nico Collins now sidelined for an extended period. Led the team in targets last week and was able to find the end zone for the first time this year.

I don’t think that Dell will ever be a PPR monster, but the upside is there with his speed and craftiness in space to put up a big number.

The Pack have not been great against the pass all year and I would expect that the Texans ball out here in what should be a high scoring affair.

Brock Bowers TE Las Vegas Raiders

Ownership: DK 4.4%

Salary: DK $5800

With Adams out the door now officially, it’s the Brock Bowers show in Las Vegas.

Has had 10 and 12 targets the last two weeks without Adams and that is likely to continue here in an elite spot against the Rams. I’m fairly confident that Geek could play DB right now for the Rams, and they also bleed points in the middle of the field to opposing TE’s.

Bowers is the stud that we thought he was coming out of the draft and has shown that regardless of who the QB is for the Raiders he’s going to put up points. I’m a bit shocked at the ownership projection here because TE has been a wasteland all year and he’s been one of the few bright spots and most consistent performers.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Brock Purdy QB San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: FD 3.8%

Salary: FD $7700

Purdy goes up against the Chiefs at home on Sunday afternoon in a game that has a total of 47 and a team total of 24 as the favored squad.

The Niners D has not been up to the task so far this year and it’s forced Purdy and the 49ers to score more points than normal and has led to some nice fantasy outputs for him and his receivers.

This stack is going to be SUPER low owned. Purdy+Deebo+Kittle comes in at just over 10% TOTAL. Which is wild.

Jordan Mason is dealing with a shoulder injury and beyond that, the Chiefs have been solid against the run which leads me to think that Purdy is going to throw it a ton here. Sneaky GPP winning upside with this team/game stack.

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD: 5.9%

Salary: FD $7800

Love this game to blow up. The Vikings are missing some pieces defensively, in particular Blake Cashman who runs the show on D from the linebacker position, and could lead to some issues here, and as such, potentially some more fantasy (and real life) points for the Lions.

Goff balled out again last week and is going to have to again here. He’s just so efficient and throws a great ball. Really not scared of any of the Vikings DB’s, so feel free to fire up Amon Ra, Williams, or heck even a cheap Tim Patrick who looked great last week. I do really like LaPorta too and think he’s potentially sitting on a big game at some point here.

Kareem Hunt RB Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: FD 6.5%

Salary: FD $7700

Hunt got a massive amount of volume last week as he was the starter for the Chiefs and was impressive in his work. 27 carries for 102 and a tuddy, which is crazy considering the guy was sitting on his couch a few weeks ago playing Madden.

Matchup against the 49ers is much tougher than the Saints, but it’s not necessarily the 49ers of old, and the Chiefs, without a ton of great receiving options are really leaning on the run. That potential volume gives him massive upside and the price/ownership combo is right here.

One thing to note, Juju is massively mispriced on DK and should slot into a ton of your lineups. Don’t be afraid to put both in your lineups, typically we avoid RB/WR combos but in this case just with the price, I think it’s viable.

Darnell Mooney WR Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: FD 7.68%

Salary: FD $6300

Going right back to the well with Mooney this week in another great spot against the Seahawks and their mediocre secondary.

Wasn’t great last week as the Falcons just used their run game to obliterate the Panthers. The volume wasn’t there, but in a 51 point total potential shoot out, I expect Kirk Thuggins and the Falcons to air it out quite a bit more, and with the legitimate downfield threat of Mooney, he could rack up a bunch of points in a hurry.

TJ Hockenson TE Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: FD NA%

Salary: FD: $6000

The practice window for Hockenson was opened on Oct 4th and he got a limited session in on Wednesday. I think he potentially is a go this week against his former team, and if he does I think he becomes one of the sneakiest GPP plays on the slate.

Hock was a monster last year when healthy, and while yes, the QB is different now, Darnold has been great too and should welcome an elite pass catching TE.

This game with the Lions, like I’ve stated above a few times, is going to pop off and with TE being the wasteland that it is, I don’t hate taking a shot at Hockenson if he’s a go here.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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