Week 5 Waiver Wire – NFL Fantasy Football

DFS Army’s Gthom goes over the waiver wire targets for this week. These waiver wire targets are normally available in 50-percent of ESPN leagues.

Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call X, or Twitter, or whatever it’s called @GarettThomas.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

Geno Smith (SEA) – 29% Ownership

Heading into his Week 4 contest against Detroit on Monday Night Football, Smith remains a strong stash for fantasy managers approaching the bye weeks. The Seahawks play at a quicker pace than most of the league, running 2.13 plays per minute (9th) and attempting 34.3 passes per game (10th). Additionally, Smith averages 7.6 yards per attempt (9th), and his pass catchers excel at getting open, ranking 6th in receiver target separation.

Smith is averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game, which ranks 13th overall. He has also finished as a top 7 quarterback in two of the last three weeks. Regardless of his performance against Detroit, Smith and the Seahawks will be strong options over the next two weeks, as they face the Giants and 49ers at home—both of whom are average against opposing quarterbacks.

Justin Fields (PIT) – 34% Ownership

We finally witnessed a ceiling game from Justin Fields in 2024. The fourth-year quarterback from Ohio State finished with three total touchdowns, completing 22 of 34 passes for 312 yards, and added 10 rushes for 55 yards, totaling 31.98 fantasy points.

Fields should continue providing a reliable fantasy floor due to his rushing ability, but teammate Russell Wilson is lurking after getting healthy from an ankle injury. Fields has performed incredibly well through the first four weeks, but there’s a small chance Wilson could reclaim the starting role—especially if Fields struggles as he did in the first half against the Colts.

Expect Fields to start in Week 5 against a depleted Dallas unit, likely without their top two pass rushing options. Buyer beware: Fields may be on a short leash now that Russell Wilson is healthy again.

Sam Darnold (MIN) – 44% Ownership

It’s hard not to root for Sam Darnold now that he has found success after years of poor performances and tough situations with his former teams. In 2024, Darnold has become a fantasy stud, currently ranking as the QB4 overall and averaging 20.3 fantasy points per game.

The former USC quarterback’s high-level performances have been marked by efficiency. Despite attempting only 26.5 passes per game, Darnold ranks 2nd in yards per attempt and adjusted air yards per attempt, 5th in accuracy rating, 6th in fantasy points per dropback, and 7th in passing yards. He also adds 3.8 rush attempts per game, which can quickly accumulate extra points.

Picking him up heading into Week 5 won’t be easy. Darnold and the Vikings will host the New York Jets, followed by a BYE in Week 6. Once the Vikings return from their BYE in Week 7, they’ll face DET, @LAR, IND, and @JAX—a favorable schedule for fantasy quarterbacks, aside from the Detroit matchup.

Joe Flacco (IND) – >1% Ownership

After starting quarterback Anthony Richardson went down with a hip injury, Joe Flacco stepped in and led the Colts for most of their Week 4 contest against the Steelers. Flacco finished with two passing touchdowns, completing 16 of 26 passes for 168 yards, and added two carries for three yards, totaling 15.02 fantasy points.

The big question is Richardson’s health. Flacco will be a plug-and-play fantasy asset if Richardson is sidelined. However, there’s a small chance that Flacco could take over for the near term. Richardson has dealt with multiple injuries dating back to his rookie season (which was cut short due to injury), and he hasn’t been stellar at the NFL level. In 2024, Richardson has the 3rd most interceptable passes, 5th most danger plays, a 56.3% true completion percentage (35th), and a 28.6% red-zone completion percentage (32nd).

If Flacco remains the starter for Indianapolis, he has a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense allowing 22.95 fantasy points per game and 6.5 fantasy points above expectation to the quarterback position.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

Kareem Hunt (KC) – 22% Ownership

Hunt was elevated from the practice squad leading into Week 4. Following another lost fumble by rookie Carson Steele, Hunt became the primary back for the Chiefs against the Chargers. Hunt finished with 14 carries for 69 yards on the ground and added 2 receptions for 16 yards through the air, on three total targets.

While Hunt saw healthy volume in his first game with the Chiefs, it was Samaje Perine who scored the goal line touchdown. It’s worth noting that Perine is a larger back than Hunt, which may lead to more goal line opportunities for Perine. Lastly, Steele will likely continue to mix into the general rotation of these backs.

Hunt’s immediate usage and efficiency cannot be ignored. He is the top running back available on waivers heading into Week 5.

Trey Sermon (IND) – >1% Ownership

With Jonathan Taylor likely shelfed for multiple weeks, someone will have to step up and take handoffs for the Colts. This someone is likely Trey Sermon.

Sermon has the most snaps at running back outside of Taylor, and he played almost all the snaps once Taylor excited. Sermon is a fourth-year back out of Ohio State and he has yet to see consistent usage in the NFL, which likely speaks to a lack of ability at the NFL level. He currently averages 2.7 yards per attempt and has one touchdown in 2024. For his career, he carries a 4.3 yards per attempt across 87 rushes and 370 rushing yards. He has only caught seven passes as an NFL running back.

The only other running back that was active against the Steelers was undrafted, second-year man, Tyler Goodson. He saw one snap against the Steelers, and only has 12 snaps total this season. Sermon is worth a FAAB investment but keep things under 20% of your remaining budget.

Bucky Irving (TB) – 52% Ownership

Likely already on most rosters at this point, but worth checking since he is just over the 50-percent ownership threshold. The buzz surrounding the rookie started when his head coach mentioned he deserved more opportunities going forward. However, that has yet to fully materialize after one game. Irving saw 11 opportunities for 55 total yards and one touchdown—not a significant increase from his usage over the last three weeks. However, he was on the field for 32 snaps, well above his season average.

Starting back Rachaad White entered Week 4 with food poisoning, but it’s unclear if his usage dropped due to illness or if Irving’s rise was a factor. Week 6 and beyond will be crucial, but Irving should be rostered in all 10 and 12-team leagues.

Rico Dowdle (DAL) – 43% Ownership

Dowdle saw a season-high 11 carries, running for 46 yards (4.2 average) and scoring a touchdown. While he seems to be the running back to pick up from Dallas, he is not someone to play with confidence. The Cowboys have had significant running issues stemming from their run blocking, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry as a team (31st in the league). Additionally, fullback Hunter Luepke has seen his snap count sharply increase and was given some short-yardage opportunities in Week 4, which may eat into Dowdle’s future goal-line chances.

Regardless of what you believe, this Dallas backfield is a mess. Dowdle is the clear choice to pick up, but nothing about him should instill confidence in fantasy managers.

Chase Brown (CIN) – 55% Ownership

Brown set career-high marks for total snaps played with 27, which accounted for a 40% snap percentage. This performance led to 15 carries for 80 rushing yards, two receptions for 12 yards, and two touchdowns.

Brown has been an efficiency machine through four weeks. He leads the league in true yards per carry and juke rate. He is 8^th best with 1.07 fantasy points per touch, 10th in yards per touch, 13th in yards created per touch, and 22nd in evaded tackles.

His teammate and starter, Zack Moss, will always be in the mix barring injury. However, the juice that Brown brings to the Bengals cannot be ignored. Expect him to see more playing time as the season progresses.

Tank Bigsby (JAC) – 6% Ownership

Bigsby is a strong speculative addition heading into Week 5. He finished with seven carries for 90 rushing yards (12.9 average). For the season, he has 21 carries for 172 rushing yards (8.2 average) and two touchdowns.

Starting running back Travis Etienne—who would never be completely phased out if Bigsby were to ascend—has not been anything special for the Jaguars in 2024. He ranks 26th in true yards per carry, 28th in fantasy points per game, 30th in yards created, 34th in evaded tackles, and 49th in juke rate. In a very limited sample size, Bigsby ranks 7th in true yards per carry, has a much higher juke rate at 28.6%, and matches Etienne on breakaway runs this season (2 total).

With questions surrounding Jacksonville’s future at the head coach position, it may lead to changes that work. Bigsby has been a bright spot and has fueled this offense at times, which could lead to more usage. Etienne also left Week 4’s contest due to a shoulder injury but later returned. Any time without Etienne would significantly increase Bigsby’s role.

Braelon Allen (NYJ) – 28% Ownership

Allen will continue to frustrate the managers of Breece Hall because Allen consistently takes a small chunk of the backfield’s workload. Over their last three games, Allen has averaged 10.6 opportunities per game. His usage in the red zone and his efficiency have kept him as a desperation FLEX player, but he may have value as managers begin to navigate the bye weeks starting in Week 5.

Allen should continue to be a low-end second FLEX option for fantasy managers unless there is an increase to his workload. He remains an elite handcuff in case Hall gets injured.

Samaje Perine (KC) – 25% Ownership

In two games without Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs’ backfield has hardly gone through Perine. He is averaging just 7 opportunities over the last two games, but he did receive a goal-line touchdown run against the Chargers in Week 4. Perine’s role remains extremely limited—especially considering Kareem Hunt’s usage in his first game as a Chief—but he remains on this list in case he emerges as the go-to goal-line running back, especially now that rookie Carson Steele has lost his second fumble of the season. Perine may also continue to get some third-down and passing work in this offense.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – 27% Ownership

Averaging 13.2 PPR points per game, Robinson has carved out a consistent role in the New York Giants’ offense. Over the last four weeks, Robinson has received the following target counts: 12, 4, 8, and 14. Those are healthy metrics for a WR2.

New York’s offense has been throwing the ball frequently in 2024, increasing the number of targets available for pass catchers. So far, 60.9% of the Giants’ plays have been pass plays, which equates to 36.3 passes per game—both well above league average.

Robinson should be picked up in every full PPR league heading into the first week of BYE’s. He will be a player to utilize throughout your BYE week management due to his safe floor.

Xavier Legette (CAR) – 25% Ownership

The anticipation surrounding Legette’s increased role was something to watch heading into his matchup against the Bengals. The rookie receiver finished with one touchdown, six receptions on 10 targets, and 66 receiving yards. This usage should be Legette’s role moving forward, which has fantasy relevancy now that veteran receiver Adam Thielen is on injured reserve.

Legette was a first-round pick for the Panthers, and further developing him is in their best interest in multiple ways. His next stretch of games won’t be easy: @CHI, ATL, @WAS, @DEN. Monitor his performances over the next few weeks to determine how volatile he is, but Legette should be an excellent play against the Washington Commanders in Week 7.

Dontayvion Wicks (GB) – 10% Ownership

Wicks had a breakout game in Week 4 against the Vikings, posting a stat line of 5 receptions for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns. This led to a career-high fantasy performance with 24.8 PPR points.

Through the first three games it’s been hard to trust Wicks due to his limited snap count, playing roughly 50% of the time, and he has left fantasy managers with zero fantasy points in two-of-four weeks. However, with teammate Christian Watson injured, Wicks will see a much-needed boost in usage, as evidenced by his 76% snap share in Week 4.

Lastly, this passing offense just put up 389 yards against an elite Vikings unit, a career high for Jordan Love. While this level of production may not be sustainable, the ceiling potential for this passing attack is very high now that their QB1 is back under center.

Romeo Doubs (GB) – 26% ownership

At this point in the season, Doubs might look like a drop candidate for many fantasy managers. Despite a 17% target share, he has averaged just 7.2 fantasy points per game. However, heading into Week 5, Doubs has some fantasy life with Christian Watson sidelined due to injury.

The passing offense just posted 389 yards against a tough Vikings defense, marking a career-high for Jordan Love. While this level of production may not be sustainable every week, the upside of this passing attack is significant with their starting quarterback back in charge.

Grabbing Doubs requires a “wait and see” approach, as he has yet to record a double-digit fantasy performance in 2024.

Tre Tucker (LV) – 10% Ownership

After posting 7 receptions for 96 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 3, Tucker followed up with 5 receptions for 41 yards and added 1 carry for 3 yards and a touchdown, totaling 15.4 PPR points. Tucker’s role has increased due to DeVante Adams’ hamstring injury and the offense’s use of more three-wide sets.

Tucker’s fantasy relevance cannot be ignored at this point, but this level of output is likely unsustainable based on his projected usage for 2024. Unless he starts stealing snaps from Jakobi Meyers—and considering Tucker is part of an inefficient offense—it’s hard to trust him for the rest of the season or in Week 5 against a tough Broncos defense.

Allen Lazard (NYJ) – 40% Ownership

Lazard is clearly a top red zone option for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Through four games, he holds a 33.3% red zone target share and has scored three touchdowns. Lazard projects as a WR3/FLEX option with a potentially low fantasy floor (5.3 targets per game) unless he finds the end zone. However, his floor may not be as low as it seems—he has scored 10 or more fantasy points in three of four games in 2024.

Tutu Atwell (LAR) – 7% Ownership

Atwell saw a 90% snap share in Week 5 against the Bears and should continue to see high snap percentages until Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp return from injury. In 2024, he leads the NFL with 3.71 yards per route run and ranks 3rd in both average depth of target (14.9) and yards per reception (20.3). He has posted 12 or more fantasy points in back-to-back weeks.

Atwell will carry FLEX value heading into Week 5 but faces a stingy Green Bay defense.

Josh Downs (IND) – 9% Ownership

With Anthony Richardson potentially missing time due to a hip injury, Downs will enter fantasy relevancy once again. He posted impressive numbers when Joe Flacco took over the game: 8 receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown, totaling 22.2 PPR points.

With Jacksonville up next, Downs will likely be a WR3/FLEX option with upside. The Jaguars are allowing 44.3 PPR points per game and 8.4 fantasy points above expectation to the wide receiver position. If Richardson is the quarterback under center in Week 5, Downs becomes a fringe FLEX option.

In the two games Downs has played in 2024, the Colts appear to be easing him back in (57% of snaps in Week 3, 62% in Week 4). Once he returns to a high-80% snap share, he can truly showcase his fantasy ceiling.

 

TIGHT ENDS

 

Tyler Kraft (GB) – 5% Ownership

Kraft saw a breakout week against a tough Vikings defense. He finished with one fumble lost, one touchdown, six catches on nine targets, and 53 yards receiving. Like most tight ends, Kraft has an extremely volatile floor. The sophomore tight end averaged 2.6 targets per contest through his first three games.

This Packers’ offense exploded for 465 yards, 379 being through the air. Chasing this passing attack over the next four weeks will likely lead to big rewards. Green Bay will face @LAR, ARI, HOU and @JAC, all notoriously poor against opposing pass catchers.

Cade Otton (TB) – 6% Ownership

Otton has seen 17 targets over the last two weeks. In that time, he has 13 receptions for 99 yards, 10.45 PPR points per game. His upside could potentially be unlocked if he can find the end zone, he has yet to do so in 2024.

 

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