Week 4 Waiver Wire – NFL Fantasy Football

DFS Army’s Gthom goes over the waiver wire targets for this week. These waiver wire targets are normally available in 50-percent of ESPN leagues.

Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call X, or Twitter, or whatever it’s called @GarettThomas.

 

QUARTERBACKS

Sam Darnold (MIN) – 16% Ownership

Darnold has a bad reputation that proceeds himself, but through three games he has made a good case for fantasy managers to change their point-of-view of his 2024 outlook.

Against the Texans in Week 3, the Minnesota quarterback threw for four touchdowns on 181 passing yards and a 60.7 completion percentage. Additionally, Darnold has 2-plus touchdowns in each of his starts and has finished as a top-8 fantasy quarterback in consecutive weeks.

Darnold is averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game this season, 4^th highest prior to Monday Night Football. His next two games are not easy (@GB, NYJ) but Darnold is surrounded by a good offensive system that maximizes their skill players.

Justin Fields (PIT) – 24% Ownership

Fields finally delivered for fantasy managers against the Chargers in Week 3. While his rushing usage was largely held in check, he finished with 245 passing yards, two total touchdowns (one passing and one rushing), and one interception for 18.4 fantasy points.

Despite his low passing yardage to start 2024, Fields will always be appealing in the fantasy world due to his rushing ability. Through three games, the former Ohio State product has averaged 1.3 touchdowns per game, 30 rushing yards, and 172 passing yards.

His upcoming schedule appears favorable to fantasy quarterbacks. The Steelers will travel to Indianapolis, host the Dallas Cowboys, and then travel to Las Vegas.

Andy Dalton (CAR) – 1% Ownership

In his first start since 2023, Dalton lit up the box score against the Raiders with 24.5 fantasy points. The Carolina quarterback threw for three touchdowns, 319 passing yards, and completed 70-percent of his passes. Dalton is expected to remain the starter for Carolina, which boosts the fantasy value of the Carolina players. However, his Week 3 performance should be viewed as an outlier until we have a larger sample size.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Bucky Irving (TB) – 33% Ownership

Irving appears on this list because he out-touched starter Rachaad White. Irving finished the day with 9 carries for 70 yards and 3 receptions for 14 yards, totaling 12 touches. White, on the other hand, had 5 carries for 17 yards and 5 receptions for 18 yards, with 10 total touches. This is notable because White projected to be the featured-back this season, but the backfield may be shifting towards a committee approach.

It’s worth noting that Tampa Bay trailed the entire game. Additionally, White dealt with a groin injury in Week 2 but had no designation for Week 3. It’s reasonable to think White’s decreased usage could be due to the Bucs managing his reps in the short term.

Although Irving won’t dominate touches unless an injury occurs, his involvement in Tampa’s offense is hard to ignore. Especially now that his head coach came out and stated Irving ‘would receive a larger role going forward.’ The rookie is easily the top running back to target in Week 4, but do not exceed FAAB bids beyond 18-23%.

Braelon Allen (NYJ) – 28% Ownership

Allen has clearly carved out a role in this offense. Last week, he finished with 7 carries for 33 yards and a touchdown, along with 2 receptions for 23 yards and another score. In Week 3 against the Patriots, he recorded 3 catches for 13 yards and 11 rushes for 55 yards.

Allen’s involvement in the passing game boosts his value in PPR formats, providing stand-alone appeal. It’s also encouraging to see the Jets using both Allen and starter Breece Hall in packages together.

Allen is a high-value handcuff with FLEX potential, especially as BYE weeks begin in Week 5.

Samaje Perine (KC) – 25% Ownership

One week into the Kansas City backfield shakeup showed Perine receiving far less opportunity than Carson Steele. Perine was on the field for 38-percent of the snaps, finishing with six carries for 25 rushing yards and three receptions on four targets for 15 receiving yards. Steele, meanwhile, had 18 opportunities and 74 total yards on 62-percent of snaps.

While Perine failed to deliver a solid fantasy score, he should still be rostered. It only takes one “boom” game for the narrative around Perine to shift – especially given the offense he’s a part of.

For now, fantasy managers should consider Perine a desperation FLEX-option in 12-team PPR leagues.

Emmanuel Wilson (GB) – 2% Ownership

Wilson saw a career-high 14 opportunities in Week 3’s game against the Titans. The second-year player from Fort Valley State finished with one touchdown, two receptions on two targets for 35 receiving yards, and 12 carries for 50 rushing yards. Wilson emerged from the depth chart after rookie teammate MarShawn Lloyd was placed on injured reserve.

Adding Wilson to your roster requires a “wait and see” approach since this is the first time he has received significant action. While his teammate, Josh Jacobs, remains firmly established as the starting running back, Green Bay’s head coach has a history of utilizing two running backs. Wilson may continue to see opportunities moving forward, but only the Packers know how involved he will be in Week 4.

Tyler Badie (DEN) – >1% Ownership

Heading into 2024 the Broncos’ backfield was projected to be messy, and through three weeks it continues to be a mystery. This week, and for the first time in his career, Tyler Badie led the committee with nine carries for 70 rushing yards. Badie entered Week 3 against the Bucs with just 13 career touches, highlighting his limited NFL action over his three-year career.

Adding Badie in fantasy is highly speculative, but with a bit of luck it could pay off. Best case scenario is Badie emerges as the leader of Denver’s running back committee. Lastly, the Broncos are expected to be trailing in games this season, which further devalues the running back position for fantasy purposes.

Cam Akers (HOU) – 35% Ownership

With injuries throughout Houston’s backfield, Cam Akers became the starting running back for the Texans in Week 3. Unfortunately for Akers, the Texans faced a tough defense and found themselves turning the ball over and playing from behind – to the demise of Akers’ fantasy managers.

Despite the negative game script, Akers managed to find the end zone, finishing with 9.9 fantasy points on 10 opportunities for 29 total yards.

If Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce — two running backs higher on the depth chart than Akers — return in any capacity, Akers becomes droppable. Neither Pierce nor Mixon has practiced since Week 2. If Akers remains the starter in Week 4, expect continued inefficiency, but he may do just enough to offer FLEX-level production for fantasy managers.

Alexander Mattison (LV) – 29% Ownership

Mattison has proven to be a touchdown-dependent running back through three weeks, but to his credit, he has scored in three consecutive games. The danger with Mattison is that being reliant on touchdowns often makes a player volatile in fantasy. This becomes even clearer when you consider that Mattison has only received 12 rush attempts all season, averaging a dismal 2.25 yards per carry.

Mattison does provide a small PPR floor, he has seven receptions and 90 receiving yards this season. Consider the sixth-year man from Boise State a desperation FLEX player for PPR formats unless he can secure more guaranteed touches.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jauan Jennings (SF) – 36% Ownership

Jennings finished with 46.5 fantasy points against the Rams in Week 3, likely leading the NFL. He had a career day, catching 11 passes on 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns.

The 49ers have been hit hard by injuries, and Jennings is one of the few remaining veterans. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle did not practice leading up to Week 3, so monitor the injury report as we head into Week 4.

Jennings is a temporary fill-in player, do not blow large amounts of FAAB trying to acquire him rest-of-season.

Allen Lazard (NYJ) – 34% Ownership

Lazard and his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, seem to have carried their chemistry over from Green Bay. As a result, Lazard has re-emerged as one of Rodgers’ favorite red zone options.

Through three games, Lazard has recorded three touchdowns, 11 receptions on 16 targets, and 148 receiving yards, with an average of 9.25 yards per target and 13.45 yards per catch. Since he isn’t a target hog in this offense, Lazard will likely experience volatility in weeks when he doesn’t score a touchdown. Nevertheless, he should be rostered in all formats – especially in standard, non-PPR, leagues.

Lazard is worth a small FAAB investment for players looking to bolster their bench. In 12-team leagues or deeper, Lazard may cost at least 12-18% of your FAAB.

Quentin Johnston (LAC) – 23% Ownership

Another week, another touchdown for Johnston, who was one of the top waiver additions last week after scoring two touchdowns. Against a tough Steelers defense in Week 3, Johnston finished with 2 receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown.

Johnston’s snap count has increased each week, with Week 3 being his highest yet. In addition to his three touchdowns this season, he’s posted solid metrics with 10.23 yards per target and 13.3 yards per catch.

Joshua Palmer, one of the other starting receivers in this offense, did not practice leading into Week 3 and may be in danger of missing another game. This bolsters Johnston’s value heading into his matchup against the Chiefs, who have struggled to slow down fantasy receivers. However, if starting quarterback Justin Herbert were to miss Week 4, Johnston would be a player to bench.

Johnston remains a touchdown-dependent option heading into Week 4’s contest against the Chiefs. He will require a small FAAB investment of 10-15%.

Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – 15% Ownership

Robinson has quietly produced FLEX-level production throughout this season, with fantasy scores of 11.8, 9.8, and 13.1 PPR points. His target volume has driven this success, as Robinson has been peppered with 24 targets over three games (an average of seven targets per game).

Due to his low yards per target metric, Robinson should be reserved for PPR formats. Additionally, he only plays in three-receiver sets, which has kept his snap percentage in the 60-percent range, adding an element of volatility.

The Giants face the Cowboys in Week 4, and Dallas has dominated the Giants as of late. Proceed with caution this week.

Romeo Doubs (GB) – 26% Ownership

With his starting quarterback nearing a return, Doubs should be picked up in all formats, despite not generating much fantasy value so far.

Doubs leads all Green Bay receivers in snaps this season. He’s averaging 10.83 yards per target and 16.25 yards per catch, both among the league’s highest marks. He also has eight catches on 12 targets for 130 receiving yards. Last season, Doubs recorded nine double-digit PPR performances, finishing as WR36 overall.

Doubs is not worth starting if backup quarterback Malik Willis is under center. However, that may not last much longer if Jordan Love continues trending in the right direction.

DeMario Douglas (NE) – 28.5% Ownership

Fantasy managers have likely not needed to play Demario Douglas in 2024. In his first two games, Douglas recorded 3.2 and zero fantasy points, respectively. However, in Week 3, with his snap count elevated to a season-high 83%, Douglas finished with seven receptions on nine targets for 69 receiving yards, translating to 14.8 fantasy points.

Douglas became a PPR FLEX option in 2023, and that could easily happen again this season. However, his ceiling will remain capped while playing in the Patriots’ offense, which continues to struggle at the quarterback position.

Jalen Nailor (MIN) – 4% Ownership

Nailor continues to produce in the fantasy box score but remains widely available. His role has increased due to starting receiver Jordan Addison’s injury in Week 1. Since then, Nailor has posted three touchdowns, seven receptions on nine targets, and 106 receiving yards. He also averages 11.78 yards per touch and 15.14 yards per catch.

Jordan Addison did not practice leading up to Week 3, and if he remains sidelined for Week 4’s contest against the Green Bay Packers, Nailor can be considered for FLEX purposes. Keep an eye on starting quarterback Sam Darnold’s injury status as well.

Jahan Dotson (WR) – 6.4% Ownership | Parris Campbell (WR) – >1% Ownership

Injuries have decimated the Philadelphia receiving corps. Alpha target-hog A.J. Brown got hurt during his Week 1 contest, and in Week 3, DeVonta Smith exited early due to concussion symptoms. With both starting receivers out, the targets will have to go somewhere else.

Between Dotson and Campbell, it’s hard to tell who will get more targets, but it will likely be Dotson. Both players are in their first season with the Eagles, but examining the snap count from Week 3, Dotson played 88% of the snaps compared to Campbell’s 50%.

This offense has averaged 34 pass attempts per game (33.2 last season as well), making Dotson a WR3 option and Campbell a FLEX-level player for deeper leagues, assuming Brown and Smith remain out.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Cole Kmet (CHI) – 26% Ownership

Kmet is no stranger to elite fantasy performances but, like most tight ends, can disappear in sometimes. In 2023, he averaged 10.2 PPR points per game, ranking 8th, and finished as a top-12 tight end in 10 different weeks. This week against the Colts, the Chicago tight end had 10 catches on 11 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown.

The Bears’ offense, led by rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, has been impossible to trust in 2024. But in Week 3, Williams threw for 363 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions – perhaps changing the narrative around this anemic offense. While 52 passing attempts aren’t likely to happen often, any boost to passing production makes Kmet and all Chicago pass-catchers more appealing.

With tight ends being a scarce commodity, Kmet’s usage is hard to ignore. He may require a small FAAB investment of 7-15% to acquire him.

Tyler Conklin (NYJ) – 28% Ownership

Five receptions on six targets for 93 receiving yards earned PPR fantasy managers 14.3 fantasy points in Week 3. Conklin operates as the clear-cut TE1 for his team and has one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL under center, which boosts Conklin’s fantasy relevance. Additionally, his 10.9 yards per target and 15.57 yards per catch rank among the highest in the league.

 

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