Kickstart your excitement for Week 3 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFSbets on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.
Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!
Sep 15, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) after turning the ball over on downs against the Chicago Bears in the third quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Top Value Quarterbacks:
Caleb Williams ($5.6k at Indianapolis Colts)
It has been a disappointing start to his rookie campaign for Caleb Williams who hasn’t gone over 10 DraftKings points yet in his two starts. It’s not entirely due to his play, but a combination of his offensive line being terrible and I think their coaching staff is abysmal as well. That said, I do think the talent is there if the stars line up as they should, especially against a Colts defense that hasn’t been good to start the season. The Colts have been gashed on the ground this season, so maybe there’s a hope and a prayer that this offensive line can hold up against them. The price continues to drop which is why he’s going to show as a top-value option here, he’s got some nice stacking pieces as well with Moore, Odunze, and Keenan Allen. I don’t know if I’ll get here or not, but the price tag is certainly intriguing in a dome. The Domination Station has him projected for 19.23 DraftKings points giving him 3.43x his current price tag.
Justin Fields ($5.4k vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
When Fields was named the starter in week 1 there was immediate thought that he would pop as one of the best DFS options as long as he’s the starter. That hasn’t exactly been the case, but he’s winning ball games, so he’ll remain in there. We know the upside is still there with him due to what he can do on the ground and they haven’t let him air the ball out yet either. The Chargers have been solid against opposing quarterbacks this season, but take that with a grain of salt… they’ve played Gardner Minshew and Bryce Young. I think this could be the week we see Fields open it up a bit both on the ground and in the pass game. The Chargers have a great pass rush, so if they start pressuring him we could see him take off and run a bit more. The stacking pieces are tough, George Pickens is the only one I have any interest in, but you can run him naked as well with his rushing ability. We have him him projected for 18.37 DraftKings points giving him a value multiplier of 3.40x his current salary.
Sam Darnold ($5.5k vs. Houston Texans)
Sammy D ain’t messing around this season! He’s actually looked the part of a decent quarterback and did it again last week against a great Niners defense. The price tag is the key here, he’s still dirt cheap and has some solid stacking options with Justin Jefferson, potentially Jordan Addison, and even Aaron Jones out of the backfield. It’s a much better matchup this week against the Texans who come into the week ranked 26th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. Our lineup optimizer has Williams projected for 17.96 DraftKings points giving him 3.27x his price tag.
Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
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Running Backs:
Jordan Mason ($6.2k at Los Angeles Rams)
Jordan Mason comes in as the top value option at the position yet again in week 3 with Christian McCaffery on IR. His price tag did come up, but not nearly enough for his workload. He saw another 21 touches last week in a negative game script against the Vikings. More often than not, the Niners are going to be in run-heavy game scripts and I think we get that again this week. The Rams rank 29th in DvP against RBs on the season, so this sets up as a great spot yet again for Mr. Mason. The Domination Station has him projected for 19.89 DraftKings points giving him 3.21x his price tag.
Zach Charbonnet ($6.0k vs. Miami Dolphins)
This spot could change by Sunday, so make sure to jump in the VIP Discord for up-to-lock breaking news. If Kenny Walker is available, it’ll bump Charbonnet out of play for me, so we’ll need that news. That said, as of the time I write this, we’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again which vaults Charbonnet up as the starting RB for the Seahawks. He looked great covering for Walkler last week going for 21.9 DraftKings points and would look great again in this one. We saw the Bills and James Cook run all over the Dolphins last week, so the matchup is there as well. We have him projected for 16 DraftKings points giving him 2.67x his current price tag.
Javonte Williams ($5.4k at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Williams is in a bit of a RB-by-committe which can be frustrating, but he’s the defacto RB1 on the team. He saw 66% of snaps last week with 16 touches, five of those coming through the air which is always something I’m looking for out of my RBs. The Bucs come in ranked 31st in DvP against opposing RBs on the season, so the spot sets up well. I do worry a bit about the game script, thinking the Broncos fall behind early, but as I mentioned, he can be dynamic out of the backfield as a pass-catcher. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 14.14 DraftKings points giving him 2.62x his price tag.
Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Value Priced Wide Receivers:
DeVonta Smith ($6.9k at New Orleans Saints)
It sounds like A.J. Brown is going to miss another week with that hamstring injury which leaves Smith as the main weapon on the outside. He saw 10 targets on Monday Night against the Falcons in the same scenario. The Saints have apparently turned into a high-powered offense out of nowhere which has helped opposing pass-games rack up some numbers as they play from behind, but I still think the Saints want to play a slower game than most teams when it all comes out in the wash. Marshon Lattimore missed the Saints week 2 game as well and would benefit Smith if he were to miss again in this one. The Domination Station has him projected for 20.07 DraftKings points giving him 2.91x his current price tag.
Demarcus Robinson ($5.0k vs. San Francisco 49ers)
The Rams are falling apart at the seams due to injury, they’ve now lost Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and most of their offensive line at this point. Robinson should come in and see a bunch of targets with Kupp and Puka still out, probably becoming their WR1 unless they were to go out and get someone else. Puka was out last week and Kupp was injured halfway through the game where Robinson saw just four targets. Obviously we would like that to come up, but at this price tag, I think he makes plenty of sense. The Rams will look to get the ball out early against this Niners’ defense and their offensive line issues. We have him projected for 13.71 DraftKings points giving him 2.74x his price tag.
Brandon Aiyuk ($6.2k at Los Angeles Rams)
We haven’t quite seen it from Aiyuk yet this season, but if there were ever a week for him to blow up, it’s this week against the Rams. The Niners are another team that has multiple weapons of their offense out with McCaffery and now Deebo Samuel out. Aiyuk will be a huge benefactor of these guys out and should demand a ton of targets in this one. He wasn’t great in his two games against the Rams last season, but the matchup is great, this Rams defense was blown up by Kyler and Marvin Harrison last week. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 16.5 DraftKings points giving him 2.66x his price tag.
Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Tight Ends:
George Kittle ($5.7k at Los Angeles Rams)
The Niners feel like this week’s version of the week 2 Rams where we have a ton of value crossed the board due to injuries. Kittle should benefit much like Aiyuk in this offense with Christian McCaffery and Deebo Samuel ruled out. He had a big week 2 against the Vikings with 20.6 DraftKings points and could be in line for that again in this one. at least five targets in both games this season and feels like that’s his floor with these guys out for the Niners. The Domination Station has him projected for 13.77 DraftKings points giving him a value of 2.42x his price tag.
Trey McBride ($6.2k vs. Detroit Lions)
Is Kyler Murray back?! He looked great last week against the Rams which is huge for the pass-catchers in this offense. McBride looked great last week on just six targets turning that into 18.7 DraftKings points. The matchup doesn’t bother me in this one, the Lions are going to score a ton and give up a ton this season, so the game script looks great with an implied total of 51.5 which is a slate high. We have him projected for 14.76 DraftKings points giving him 2.38x his current price tag.
Colby Parkinson ($3.6k vs. San Francisco 49ers)
Parkinson cracks the top values list for the second straight week with the Rams banged up, as I’ve mentioned. They’ll still be without Tyler Higbee in this one making Parkinson the TE1 for the team. He had a down week last week with just two targets, but played 81% of snaps, so the opportunity is there. I don’t think he’s a guy we should expect a huge ceiling from but the floor is there, especially at this price tag. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 8.56 DraftKings points giving him 2.38x his current price tag.
Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Value Defense/Special Teams:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.0k – Great matchup for the Bucs here against the Broncos who haven’t scored more than 20 points in either game this season and Nix has two interceptions in each game. Tampa’s defense isn’t anything sexy, but it’s a nice option in this price range.
Tennesse Titans $2.7k – I probably won’t touch the Titans if Jordan Love ends up playing, he returned to practice today in a limited fashion, and sounds like he had a real chance of playing in week 2. I still think it’ll be another week of Malik Willis, but keep an eye on that. If it’s Willis again, we saw what the Packers are going to do and it’s to run the ball… and for that reason, it makes me like the Titans a little less. Any time a team is run-heavy, there’s less opportunity for those big pick-six-type plays, but at the same time, they likely won’t give up a ton of points.
Indianapolis Colts $3.2k – The defense looked terrible last week against the Malik Willis-lead Packers, but this is a much different matchup. Caleb Williams is getting sacked A TON, I can’t remember who posted it on X, but Williams was pressured on 36 of his 37 dropbacks in week 2. The sacks should be there and Williams can certainly make mistakes at this point of his career.
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