Chronicling the 2023 Milly Maker

 Targeting the right games to construct your Milly Maker lineups around is vital to your success within the contest. Being on the right weekly games is as important to the success of your lineups as is being on the right plays for the week.

Winning the Million Dollar Game provides Daily Fantasy Sports players with a wealth of knowledge and secrets to Win DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest with respect to the Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End positions, Defenses, and Stacks. To enhance your game as a Daily Fantasy Sport player, the Shark Lab highly advises you to purchase Winning the Million Dollar Game to unveil those secrets.

Tools to use in the development of your lineups in addition to the Shark Lab’s NFL Cheat Sheets:

• Winning the Million Dollar Game Book
• Shark Lab’s NFL Cheat Sheets – The Burns Cheat Sheets
• Domination Station – The DraftKings Manual
• Domination Station – The FanDuel Manual
• Domination Station FPTS/$
• Domination Station Rating Metric
• Other DFS Army Coaches’ articles

 Quarterbacks

The below efficiency metrics best predict how a QB will perform in the next week’s fantasy output when looking at relative sample sizes over the course of a given period during the NFL season. These metrics outweigh volume, which has virtually no correlation to the next week’s fantasy output:

• Touchdown Rate
• Yards Per Attempt Passing
• Yards Per Game
• Completion Percentage

The most correlated data points when using betting lines unveiled to determine top QB plays:

• Implied Team Totals
• Over/Under
• Favorites

 Use salary ranges to your advantage on a weekly basis to develop your QB player pool. During the 2023 NFL season, 70% of the winning DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineups rostered a QB in both the $5,000 and $6,000 salary ranges, which was down from 80% during the 2022 NFL season. The dynamic of salary ranges played a significant role in the selection of the QB that placed lineups in the top 20, the $6,000 salary range was the most successful during the 2023 NFL season at 49%. The next closest salary range that had success in 2023 was the $5,000 salary range at 21%.

Understand all aspects of what makes a QB a good play versus not a good play. Consider a defense’s average fantasy points against the QB position. Rostering QBs versus defenses that allow 15^th to 32^ndmost average fantasy points against the QB position were a winning proposition during the 2023 NFL season at 70%.

QBR and pass DVOA are a piece of the overall puzzle in developing your QB player pool. Target QBs with a QBR equal to or in excess of 90 and a QB on an offense whose pass DVOA is between 1^st and 15^th. During the 2023 NFL season, rostering QBs with a QBR equal to or in excess of 90 was a winning proposition 67% of the time. During the 2023 NFL season, rostering a QB on an offense with pass DVOA between 1^st and 15^th was winning proposition 64% of the time.

2023 NFL Season (Through 17 Weeks)

340 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 340 QBs Rostered

 

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, there were 165 home favorite’s lineups and 40% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of 24 or greater. Additionally of note, home favored QBs were used in top 20 Milly Maker lineups 60% of the time when the game’s total points were 45 or less and nearly equal percentage of implied team totals of 24 or greater and 24 or less. Of the 33 home underdog’s lineups researched, 45% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of less than 24. It was interesting to see that 42% of the lineups targeted games with total points of greater than 45 points and implied team totals of less than 24. Of the 89 away favorite’s lineups researched, 55% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of 24 or greater. Of the 53 away underdog’s lineups researched, 68% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals less than 24.

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season researched, the top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups rostered betting lines favorite QBs 75% of the time. Those top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups rostered QBs in games with final betting lines over/under of 45 points or greater 50% of the time. There was greater significance that the top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups rostered QBs in games where the final betting lines favorite Implied Team Total (ITT) of 24 points or greater 67% of the time. Of the 25% of the betting lines underdog QBs, 71% of those lineups rostered a QB with ITT of 20 or greater.

Running Backs

The following volume metrics best predict how an RB may perform in the future week’s fantasy output when looking at relative sample sizes over the course of a given period of time during the NFL season:

• Total Yardage
• Opportunities (Rush Attempts and Pass Targets)
• Rush Yards
• Rush Attempts
• Pass Targets
• Receiving Yards
• Receptions

The most correlated data points when using betting lines were unveiled to determine top RB plays:

• Implied Team Totals
• Favorites

Understanding the salary ranges that generate the most successful lineup construction is incredibly valuable information to have at our disposal. Refining our lineup construction decisions based on salary ranges will help generate better lineups over the course of the season.

• Salary combinations for RBs with “No RB in the FLEX position” and “RB in the FLEX position” allow players to see salary pattern combinations for the RB1, RB2, along with the FLEX position to determine how much salary to attribute holistically to the RB position each week. This higher level of analyzing lineups can be the difference maker in a profitable week with the potential of taking down tournaments.

Ownership percentages is a tool to help players gain an edge on the competition. Players don’t have to be contrarian at the RB position in their roster construction; they need to attack RBs that have high-end volume metrics to capture the most amount of fantasy points at the RB position.

Target RBs against defenses that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of surrendering fantasy points to the RB position.

Target offenses with strong rushing attacks in terms of rush DVOA.

2023 NFL Season (Through 17 Weeks)

340 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 776 RBs Rostered

 

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, there were 364 home favorite’s lineups and 45% of the lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of 24 or less. At nearly and equal percentage of 42%, top 20 lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of 24 or greater. Of the 59 home underdog’s lineups researched, 81% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. Of the 185 away favorite’s lineups researched, 50% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. Of the 168 away underdog’s lineups researched, 67% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals less than 24.

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, the top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups rostered betting lines favorite RBs 71% of the time. Those top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups rostered RBs in games with final betting lines over/under of 45 points or greater 57% of the time. The top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups rostered RBs in games where the final betting lines favorite ITT of 24 points or greater 85% of the time. Of the 29% of the betting lines underdog RBs, 62% of those lineups rostered an RB with ITT of 19 or greater.

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, the top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses who surrendered fantasy points to the RB position ranked between 15^th to 32^nd in the league (league’s worst teams at giving up fantasy points to the RB position) 83% of the time. The top twenty winning Milly Maker lineups targeted RBs against defensive lines that ranked between 15^th and 32^nd in the league in terms of adjusted line yards 72% of the time.

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, the top twenty winning Milly Maker lineup’s average salaries for RB1 was $6,597 and RB2 was $6,005. The dynamic of salary ranges played a significant role in the selection of RBs that placed lineups in the top 20. The $6,000 salary range was the most successful during the 2023 NFL season at 42%. The next closest salary range that had success in 2023 was the $5,000 salary range at 29%. Rostering high salaried RBs didn’t fare well in 2023, $7,000 salary range RBs were rostered in the top 20 lineups 12% of the time and $8,000 salary range RBs were rostered in the top 20 lineups 13% of the time.

Ownership per position has a massive impact on whether your lineups will scale the leaderboards in tourneys. At the RB positions, you DO NOT have to take a contrarian approach in your lineup construction. In fact, a contrarian approach at the RB position is a detriment to your lineups. Through the seventeen weeks of the 2023 NFL season, the average ownership for RB1 was 19.93% and RB2 was 21.83%.

Wide Receivers

The below volume metrics best predict how a WR may perform in future week’s fantasy output when looking at relative sample sizes over the course of a given period during the NFL season:

• Targets
• Receptions
• Receiving Yards
• Target Share
• Air Yards Share
• Yards per Target

The most correlated data points when using betting lines unveiled to determine top RB plays:

• Implied Team Totals
• Over/Under
• Favorites

Understanding the salary ranges that generate the most successful lineup construction is incredibly valuable information to have at our disposal. Over the course of the season, refining our lineup construction decisions based on salary ranges will help generate better lineups for the remainder of the season.

Salary combinations for WRs with “No WR in the FLEX position” and “WR in the FLEX position” allow players to see salary pattern combinations for the WR1, WR2, WR3 along with the FLEX position to determine how much salary to attribute holistically to the WR position on a weekly basis. This higher level of analyzing lineups can be the difference maker to a profitable week with the potential to take down tournaments.

Ownership percentages is a fantastic tool to help players gain an edge on the competition. The WR lineup spots are valuable real estate where players can be contrarian and gain an edge on the competition in their roster construction. A low volume WR who has the potential to catch a few targets, gain high yardage, and score a touchdown in a contest can break open a slate at low ownership, the pearls of the sea.

Target WRs against defenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of surrendering fantasy points to the WR position.

Target WRs against defenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL and were suspect at applying pressure on the QB and are bottom tier defenses against the pass.

Understand WR versus CB matchups. These matchups can help a player find those WRs in great matchups and stay away from those WRs in bad matchups.

Target WRs on offenses with strong passing attacks in terms of pass DVOA, especially against defenses that have weak defensive line ranks and surrender a high amount of fantasy points to the WR position.

2023 NFL Season (Through 17 Weeks)

340 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 1,201 WRs Rostered

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, there were 452 home favorite’s lineups and at an equal percentage of 37% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of 24 or greater and total points of 45 or less and implied team total of 24 or less. Of the 211 home underdog’s lineups researched, 52% of those lineups targeted games with total points of less than 45 and implied team totals of less than 24. Of the 259 away favorite’s lineups researched, 47% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of 24 or greater. Of the 279 away underdog’s lineups researched, 53% of those lineups targeted games with total points of greater than 45 and implied team totals less than 24.

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, the top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups rostered betting lines favorite WRs 59% of the time. The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups rostered WRs in games where the final betting lines favorite ITT of 24 points or greater 62% of the time. Of the 41% of the betting lines underdog WRs, 81% of those lineups rostered an WR with ITT of 22 or less.

The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses who surrendered fantasy points to the WR position ranked between 15^th to 32^nd in the league (league’s worst teams at giving up fantasy points to the WR position) 65% of the time.

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, the top 20 winning Milly Maker lineup’s average salaries for WR1 was $6,651, WR2 was $6,191, and WR3 was $4,965. The salary ranges during the NFL season were relatively flat, with the $5,000 salary was the most successful during the 2023 NFL season at 23%. But, the $3,000 salary range, $4,000 salary range, and the $6,000 salary range were at 17%. While the $7,000 salary range was at 13% and the $8,000 salary range was at 11%. The WR position has less disparity amongst the salary ranges than any other roster position with your lineup.

Ownership per position has a massive impact on whether your lineups will scale the leaderboards in tourneys. At the WR position, ownerships fluctuate more than the other positions and allow you to be more contrarian in your player pool selection. The average ownership for WR1 was 16.41%, WR2 was 12.67% and WR3 was 11.64%.

Tight Ends

The below volume metrics best predict how a TE would perform in the next week’s fantasy output when looking at relative sample sizes over the course of a given period in time during the NFL season:

• Target Share
• Targets
• Receiving Yards
• Receptions
• Air Yards Share

The most correlated data points when using betting lines unveiled to determine top TE plays were:

• Favorites
• Implied Team Totals
• Over/Under

Understanding the salary ranges that generate the most successful lineup construction is incredibly valuable information to have at our disposal. Over the course of the season, refining our lineup construction decisions based on salary ranges will help generate better lineups throughout the remainder of the season.

Ownership percentages is a fantastic tool to help players gain an edge on the competition.

Target TEs against defenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of surrendering fantasy points to the TE position.

Target Tes against defenses that: rank in the bottom half of the NFL; were suspect at getting pressure on the QB; and are bottom-tier defenses against the pass.

 2023 NFL Season (Through 17 Weeks)

340 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 403 TEs Rostered

 

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, there were 166 home favorite’s lineups, and nearly equally at 40%, the lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or greater and implied team totals of 24 or greater and total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of 24 or less. Of the 85 home underdog’s lineups researched, 71% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of 24 or less. Of the 79 away favorite’s lineups researched, 53% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of 24 or less. Of the 73 away underdog’s lineups researched, 66% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of 24 or less.

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, the top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups rostered betting lines favorite TEs 61% of the time. The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups rostered TEs in games where the final betting lines favorite ITT of 24 points or greater 56% of the time. Of the 39% of the betting lines underdog TEs, 95% of those lineups rostered a TE with ITT of 22 or less. The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups targeted home TEs 62% of the time.

The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses who surrendered fantasy points to the TE position ranked between 15^th to 32^nd in the league (league’s worst teams at giving up fantasy points to the TE position) 66% of the time. The top 20 winning Milly Maker lineups targeted TEs who were targeted in the red zone at 15% or greater 67% of the time.

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, the top 20 winning Milly Maker lineup’s average salaries for TE was $4,353. The salary ranges that were the most successful during the 2023 NFL season were $4,000 salary range at 34%, $3,000 salary range at 26%, and $5,000 salary range at 21%.

Ownership per position has a massive impact on whether your lineups will scale the leaderboards in tourneys. At the TE position, ownerships are flatter but you can still be contrarian in your player pool selection per salary range. The average ownership for TE was 11.39%.

Defenses

The most correlated data points when using betting lines unveiled to determine top DST plays were:

• Over/Under
• Implied Team Totals
• Spread

During the 2023 NFL season, the $3,000 salary range was the sweet spot to target defenses to roster at 47%, followed by the $2,000 salary range at 41%.

In odd-numbered calendar years, the average salary spent on defenses peaks at or above $3,000 salary range, and this certainly held true in 2023 with the average salary spent on the defensive position of $3,121.

Understand how salary trends could have an impact on the upcoming NFL daily fantasy season to get ahead of the curve.

Target defenses to roster that have solid defensive lines and are in the Top 15 in the NFL at applying pressure on the QB position.

Target defenses to roster that are going up against offensive lines susceptible to giving up pressures onto the QB position.

Target QBs who throw a lot of interceptions over the course of a season.

Target defenses that force a lot of turnovers via fumbles and interceptions, as these lead to a greater amount of fantasy points scored via the rostered defense.

Vegas lines certainly play a factor in rostering top defenses. During the 2023 NFL season, betting lines favorites were targeted 66% of the time. Even more significant was that betting lines favorites targeted implied team totals of 47 or less at 97%. Of the 34% of the Vegas betting lines underdogs, 81% of top 20 lineups targeted implied team totals of 18 or greater. Home teams were targeted 56% of the time in 2023.

2023 NFL Season (Through 17 Weeks)

340 Milly Maker Lineups Researched – 340 DSTs Rostered

Through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, there were 140 home favorite’s lineups and 55% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of 24 or less. Of the 51 home underdog’s lineups researched, 80% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of 24 or less. Of the 84 away favorite’s lineups researched, 64% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of 24 or less. Of the 65 away underdog’s lineups researched, 89% of those lineups targeted games with total points of 45 or less and implied team totals of 24 or less.