Welcome to the inaugural edition of “Part the Cloud”, where we explore the intersection of wide receivers and defensive schemes. Inspired by the NFL’s prevalent Cover 3 coverage, this series aims to dissect defensive strategies and identify receivers who can exploit them. Although Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) typically focuses on offensive players, understanding defensive tactics can significantly enhance our lineup decisions. Let’s dive into this week’s insights!
Gotta Know Where You’ve Been…
If there had been a column last week, Brian Thomas Jr. would have been my top recommendation. Priced at $4,700 on DraftKings (DK), Thomas was poised for a breakout due to his college performance, a weakened Miami secondary, and anticipated defensive schemes under a new coordinator. In the first half, he scored 14.7 DK points. However, in an unexpected twist, the Jaguars ceased targeting him after halftime.
…To Know Where You’re Going
This week, I spotlight two receivers who stand out for their potential against specific defensive schemes:
Marvin Harrison Jr.
- DraftKings (DK): $6,900 (Projected Ownership: 3.46%)
- FanDuel (FD): $6,500 (Projected Ownership: 5.85%)
Harrison, the 4th overall pick, had a disappointing performance with just one catch against the Bills. Despite Murray’s comments blaming the coaching staff for targeting decisions, Harrison’s open play at the end of the game will likely be a focal point in film reviews.
Murray’s passing game has been inconsistent, excelling mostly on curl routes. To challenge the Rams’ Cover 3 and Cover 4 schemes, Murray will need to utilize quick passes, deep routes, and exploit zones. Harrison, with his elite performance against zone coverage (83.2% success rate), is well-suited to this challenge. He excels in routes other than post and comeback routes, making him a prime candidate for Murray to target.
Jameson Williams
- DraftKings (DK): $5,300 (Projected Ownership: 3.76%)
- FanDuel (FD): $5,700 (Projected Ownership: 3.65%)
Williams is a promising pick for Detroit’s number 2 receiver role. Despite a low catch rate, his target volume can be significant. The Buccaneers frequently employ Cover 3 and Cover 4, with occasional Cover 1. Williams is adept against Cover 3 and particularly excels in Cover 1, where space is more exploitable.
With Antoine Winfield missing, the Bucs might shift to more Cover 2 looks. In Cover 2, deep throws outside the numbers can turn the zone into man coverage quickly. Williams shines in Dig routes, and Goff’s affinity for crossing routes could play to his advantage. Keep an eye on Williams’ ankle injury; if he’s limited, consider pivoting to Kalif Raymond, who had a strong performance last year against zone coverage.
Honorable Mentions
A few more players to consider for your lineup:
- Greg Dortch
- DraftKings (DK): $4,600 (Projected Ownership: 2.86%)
- FanDuel (FD): $4,900 (Projected Ownership: 3.28%)
Despite being undervalued in the past, Dortch caught 6 passes last week, 5 of which were against zone coverage. He’s stepping into a starting role this season and, while not my top pick, he’s a viable option if you can’t fit Harrison into your lineup.
- Malik Nabers
- DraftKings (DK): $5,900 (Projected Ownership: 12.86%)
- FanDuel (FD): $6,400 (Projected Ownership: 8.71%)
Nabers excels against man coverage, with a 74.4% success rate. Although he’s garnering double-digit ownership, his ability to beat press coverage (72.1% success rate) makes him a strong play, especially in matchups against teams that favor man-to-man defense.
In Summary
We’ve explored some key wide receivers and their potential against various defensive schemes. I hope this breakdown helps you refine your DFS strategy. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out to me on the channels—my handle is TreyJ989.
Let’s be bold and make strategic plays this week!