10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 3 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

Want to be the next DFS Army big winner?! ?

Join Today and use code UPNORTH for 10% off a VIP Membership!!

 

Week 1 Recap:

Draftkings:

Sam Darnold – 20.92 pts | QB3 | 3.9x value

Jonathan Taylor – 18.5 pts | RB7 | 2.4x value

Tony Pollard – 15.2 pts | RB17 | 2.57x value

Jameson Williams – 14.4 pts | WR19 | 2.72x value 

Wan’Dale Robinson – 9.8 pts | WR28  | 2.28x value

Fanduel:

Daniel Jones – 18.32 pts| QB6 | 2.8x value

Rhamondre Stevenson – 16 pts | RB11 | 2.3x value

Joe Mixon – 6.5 pts | RB100| 0.8x value

Brian Thomas Jr. – 10.4 pts | WR24 | 1.8x value 

Adonai Mitchell – 3.5 pts | WR30000 |  0.7x value

MUCH better week on DK than FD this week, but scoring was down overall. DK had an average return of 2.78x and FD was 1.68x. Ideally we would have 3x in both at a minimum, but early in the season, finding the cheap values is a bit more of a guessing game.

Due to scoring being down overall, you really didn’t stand a chance unless you played Alvin Kamara in your lineup as he absolutely smashed returning almost 7x value at only around 5-6% ownership. If you had him and Kyler Murray (and Marvin. Harrison Jr. you were winning all the monies!)

One thing to note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Geno Smith QB Seattle Seahawks 

Ownership: 3.62%

Salary: DK $5600

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside, and one of them is none other than Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith.

Smith’s resurgence started a few years ago and since then he has been one of the more consistent performers in the NFL. Something about these former Jets QB’s, leaving New York and crushing…

Has put up an average of 19.9 DK points a game which is 7th on the slate, but is priced as the 14th QB. Strong pts/$ and that combined with the low ownership and matchup, get me excited.

Miami’s pass defense has been good through 2 games, but are a bit of a paper tiger as QB’s haven’t had to do much, with Josh Allen only throwing 19 passes as they rolled to a 21 point win, dominated by James Cook on the ground.

If you’ve read this article for a while now you know I love some cheap QB’s, because of how easy it is for them to hit value and what the rest of your lineup can look like with them in it. We saw it last week with Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones and I expect that to happen with Smith again this week.

I think there’s about zero chance that Kenneth Walker plays, so Charbonnet will be a chalky option, meaning that Geno can get you that correlated leverage. Stack him up with DK Metcalf or Jaxon Smith Njigba (DK is my preferred option as he’s a matchup nightmare for his boy Jalen Ramsey).

Devin Achane is your run it back piece if you want it,  he’s going to get some MONSTER volume here with Tua out and Skyler Thompson at the helm.

Josh Jacobs RB Green Bay Packers

Ownership: DK 4.34%

Salary: DK $6400

Ugh I hate writing up Packers, but this is another smash spot for Jacobs against the Titans. Potential that Love being back means they could lean on the run even more. The volume is going to be massive and he showed last week what he can do with it.

I get that it feels chasey, but this is a spot/ownership combo that I can’t pass up.

James Conner RB Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: DK 3.36%

Salary: DK $6600

Conner is in the highest total on the slate and getting just a ridiculous workload. This ownership is way too low for a guy that’s averaging over 20 DK points per game.

There’s literally no challenge to his workload and the way this whole offense looked last week is huge for his prospects going forward. The Lions are better against the run, but will have to stop the high flying passing offense that we saw against the Rams last week, especially young Marvin Harrison Jr. (who should be fairly chalky).

Multiple TD upside at sub 5% ownership in the highest total of the week, not many easier clicks this week than Conner.

Justin Jefferson WR Minnesota Vikings 

Ownership: 5.13%

Salary: DK $8600

JJettas IS the Vikings offense. The volume with Addison out is insane, and it doesn’t matter if it’s double or triple coverage, Darnold is getting him the ball.

He’s expensive, but this is why you play a cheaper QB, it’s not that hard to smash him in all your lineups (something I did last week too).

Floor is massive, ceiling is best on the slate, ownership is like he’s a dud. Yes please.

Quentin Johnston WR Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: DK 3.15%

Salary: DK $4600

Had an incredibly disappointing start to his career last year as the Chargers were out of sorts all season. Has looked much improved in 2024, and has the potential to bust out despite the tough matchup against the Steelers.

Is the unquestioned #1 in a solid offense. He’s leading the team in Air Yards, so when Herbert is airing it out, Johnston is his guy.

The Chargers are a run first team, but with how stout the Steelers front 7 is, they are going to need to get the ball in the air to move it, so while the floor is low, the potential for a big from Johnston is there.

Join the DFS Army today and gain access to our daily/weekly cheat sheets, Domination Station Optimizer, Research Stations, Free and VIP Articles, Coaching, and more! Code UPNORTH saves you 10% on a VIP or Core4 Membership!

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How

 

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Derek Carr QB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: FD 3.3%

Salary: FD $7900

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR!

I know I said this last week about my boy Darnold but at this point it looks like a two horse race between him and ya boy Derek Carr.

Carr has looked FANTASTIC under this Klint Kubiak run offense, and the Saints are the real deal finally after years of promise. Tough matchup against the Eagles but gets them at home, and this defense just fell apart in the second half against the lowly Falcons.

I was convinced that Carr would be Mega Chalk this week, but it’s currently not looking that way, and while it may end up there. I don’t think we can avoid him this week.

Stack him up with Shaheed or Kamara, run it back with Barkley/Goedert and you are well on your way to super sexy lineup.

Sam Darnold QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: FD: 1.9%

Salary: FD $7100

Back to the well with Darnold against the Texans. I’m just so high on this Vikings team, I get concerned that it’s rose colored glasses as I’m unabashedly a fan, but at this price point, with the potential game script, you have to get some exposure.

Looked outstanding against the tough 49ers last week, scrambled well, threw some dimes and was even with Jefferson late in the game and was still able to make things happen.

Texans D let Caleb Williams move the ball on them, especially in the second half and this offense is exponentially better than the Bears. Think this game has massive shootout potential and I want all the pieces of it that I can get (even, scarily the Vikings D).

Zamir White RB Oakland Raiders

Ownership: FD 7.4%

Salary: FD $6000

Price and usage make too much sense. I get that the Raiders are throwing the ball way more than they did last year, but I suspect that we see that come back to the mean sooner rather than later, and when it does, White will be the beneficiary.

Hasn’t gotten enough usage of late, because of the Raiders trailing until late in the game. That won’t happen this week as he goes against the awful Carolina Panthers, who the Raiders should roll.

Two TD game incoming, you heard it here first. (if he duds I’m going to delete this line late on Sunday)

Adam Thielen WR Carolina Panthers

Ownership: FD 1.9%

Salary: FD $5100

With Bryce Young heading to the bench, I’m not sure anyone is more excited than Adam Thielen.

Thielen has been wide open multiple times so far this season, and Young has consistently either completely missed him in his reads, or threw an uncatcheable ball.

With the Red Rocket coming back under center, Thielen will likely be targeted multiple times, and could potentially be sitting on a monster here.

Viable on both sites, though I do like his TD upside so will be using him more on FD.

Dallas Goedert TE Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: FD 4.72%

Salary: FD: $5800

Finally, a TE I can get on board with that’s going to be underowned!

With AJ Brown out, and the Eagles playing two TE sets, we should see Goedert split out wide and operating as more of a wide receiver. We didn’t see it as much as we would have liked to last week but the signs are there.

Was second in targets last week for an offense that really sputtered without Brown. I think another week of practice gets them right, and they better be because the Saints are coming.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP

Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy and Season Long NFL content in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NFL DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and use promo code UPNORTH to lock in at 10% off the monthly membership fee. You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team.

Featured Image: