10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 2 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 1 Recap:

Draftkings:

Baker Mayfield – 29.66 pts | QB2 | 5.3x value

Rhamondre Stevenson – 24.6 pts | RB3 | 4.17x value

Javonte Williams – 3.3 pts | RB42 | 0.6x value

Khalil Shakir – 13.2 pts | WR16 | 2.6x value 

Andre Iosivas- 5.6 pts | WR46 | 1.87x value

Fanduel:

Geno Smith – 18.84 pts| QB7 | 2.7x value

Devin Singletary – 7.2 pts | RB30 | 1.1x value

Aaron Jones – 17.9 pts | RB7 | 2.6x value

Greg Dortch – 8.1 pts | WR29 | 1.8x value 

Kylen Granson – 0.0 pts | TE10000 |  0x value

All in all a pretty solid week for the 10 under 10 boys. DK had an average return of 2.9x and FD was around 2.0x. Ideally we would have 3x in both at a minimum, but the fact that we had two players reach over 4x return makes up for that.

One thing to note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Sam Darnold QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: 2.9%

Salary: DK $5100

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside, and one of them is none other than the Minnesota Vikings own, Sam Darnold.

Darnold was excellent last week against the Giants, and I realize that this is NOT the Giants he’s facing, but at home against the 49ers in a somewhat competitive game, at a massively discounted price, I think he makes some sense.

The Vikings are going to dink and dunk their way down the field, and have long extended drives, with the Niners looking to stop JJettas from the big gain so while I don’t expect Darnold to have big chunk gains, he’s going to throw the ball a ton and rack up the yardage on underneath throws.

I do think that KOC and the Vikings staff will find ways to get Jefferson open though, and with Addison out, he’s going to get all the volume he can handle despite the coverage from Charvarious Ward and others so he makes sense as a pair piece.

The big thing for me with Darnold though is the price. He’s going to get at minimum 15 and likely closer to 20 DK points and 4x his salary, and that allows you to fit in other studs in your lineup, which on the slate we have this week I think we need to do.

Can you pay up for Mahomes or Lamar? Sure, but I don’t hate the pay down options this week with legitimate upside in good game environments.

Stack pieces here are obviously Justin Jefferson, but don’t sleep on Jalen Nailor who is going to step into a much bigger role this week at a really low price/ownership combo.

Johnathan Taylor RB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: DK 6.59%

Salary: DK $7700

Love me some JT in this game. Packers just got gashed for 3 Tuddies by Saquon Barkley, and Taylor is as good if not better. The Jordan Mason value lets you have no problem paying up for a guy like JT in a plus spot, so while everyone else is getting Breece Hall in their lineups, I want to pivot to Taylor here against the Pack and their poor run D.

Add in the Colts Defense against Malik Willis and you have what I think is going to be the best secondary stack on the slate.

Tony Pollard RB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: DK 3%

Salary: DK $5900

While coaches were hyping up Tyjae Spears in the offseason, it was in fact Tony Pollard that was the guy in week 1, out touching him 19-9. He had some nice runs including a 26 yard TD jaunt.

Now Pollard gets to go up against a normally good Jets run D that absolutely gashed by backup Jordan Mason. We have some risk that maybe Spears evens out the touches this week, but even if he does, Pollard was the more explosive back and the guy that I expect they want carrying the ball near the goal line.

Game environment is good with the Titans only 4 point dogs, so I’m expecting a competitive game where the Titans don’t end up having to throw it a ton to keep up with old man Rodgers.

Jameson Williams WR Detroit Lions 

Ownership: 3.5%

Salary: DK $5300

Huge Jameson Williams guy here and I love this game for some fantasy goodness.

While I’m a little concerned that we get a Sun God bounce back game, Williams led the team in targets last week and I think we see that again here as the Bucs will pay more attention to St. Brown and limit him, opening up the Williams/Goff connection once again.

Price and ownership combination is far too cheap and think that we see him at least 3x this week again with 4-5x upside.

Wan’Dale Robinson WR New York Giants

Ownership: DK 5.18%

Salary: DK $4300

12 targets last week for Robinson…TWELVE. That’s crazy for anyone, let alone a guy that is projecting at 5% owned and only $4300 on DK.

There are lots of high priced/high owned guys that I think you need exposure to in your lineups this week and while Jordan Mason makes lots work, Robinson can get you there as well and has legitimate 5x upside in a matchup against the underwhelming Washington Commanders.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Daniel Jones QB New York Giants

Ownership: FD 3.4%

Salary: FD $6900

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR!

Danny Dimes had a ROUGH go in week one and has been raked over the coals in New York and National Media and he’s handled it pretty well, and now gets rewarded with a Commanders defense that is atrocious and got carved up for a million points by Baker Mayfield.

Dimes is not as bad as he looked last week and he possesses an ability to scramble/run and make something out of nothing. He’s a real life bad QB but a decent fantasy option and this price point is insane for a guy that is likely going to throw it 40+ times here and has rushing TD upside.

Is it safe? Absolutely not, but you don’t read this for safe and he legitimately has milly maker upside.

Rhamondre Stevenson RB New England Patriots

Ownership: FD: 9.9%

Salary: FD $6900

Back to the well with Stevenson here. He’s a monster. He catches passes. Gets a ton of touches and has a prime matchup against the Seahawks, who despite doing well against the Broncos, are not a great rush defense.

25 carries last week and showed that he was THE guy as Antonio Gibson was more of an afterthought than anything.

I do think he probably ends up a touch higher than 10% owned by Sunday, but regardless he’s an elite play at this price point and I’m going to keep hammering him every single week.

Joe Mixon RB Houston Texans

Ownership: FD 7.13%

Salary: FD $8100

Paying $8100 for Joe Mixon makes me want to puke in my mouth a little bit, but here we are. Mixon is THE guy in the Texans backfield playing 72% of the snaps and getting 75% of the touches. With the deep threats of Diggs/Collins/Dell, Mixon will very rarely face a stacked box and the matchup against the Bears this week is a great one.

Do I think that Mixon gets 30 carries again? No. But he’s going to settle into a 20ish range and can be VERY PRODUCTIVE regardless of price point. Pay up this week for him and get rewarded.

NOTE: I love that they are including the Sunday night games on Fanduel main slate and because of that I’m always going to try to target someone from there so I have a ‘hammer’ game in contests.

Brian Thomas Jr. WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: FD 2.4%

Salary: FD $5800

I’m pretty excited about Thomas’ prospects this season and he balled out in week 1, leading the team in receptions and targets. He’s an explosive threat who had a tough matchup, often facing Jalen Ramsey in coverage and was still able to have a decent day.

Needs a TD to get there likely. but is more than capable, and I think he gets one this week against a good Browns secondary that looked uncharacteristically bad against the Cowboys last week.

Adonai Mitchell WR Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: FD 0.4%

Salary: FD: $5300

This is a ‘coulda, shoulda, woulda’ play. Mitchell had 5 targets last week from Anthony Richardson and was only able to bring in one for two yards.

Despite that, he was sitting on a monster day, as Richardson missed him on a guaranteed touchdown and had a good look at another long pass that he wasn’t able to bring in.

Had things gone Mitchell’s way last week, we would be talking about him as one of the chalk values on the slate, instead he’s going to go massively underowned in a great spot against the Packers.

NO TEs?!

TE is an absolute wasteland so far this season. Essentially, I think you are stuck paying up for production and even that is no guarantee. The one I’m intrigued by though is Colby Parkinson but I do think he ends up more higher owned than our current projections.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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