10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 1 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Weekly Recap:

No recap this week, but be sure to check back and see how we did every single week! Some weeks are great, some not so much, but I’m never hiding results from you guys!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Baker Mayfield QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Ownership: 5.6%

Salary: DK $5600

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside, and one of them is Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield and the Bucs have the 6th highest team total on the slate and get to go against the lowly Commanders whose defense was one of the worst in the NFL last year against QB and are the worst on the slate.

Home game, 4+ point favorites, he has some of the best weapons in the NFL and the Commanders may actually have an offense that can keep up this year. Gunslingers like Mayfield thrive in these sort of matchups and I expect him to do so again as one of the best values on the slate.

Pairing him with guys like Evans/Godwin is the obvious play, but don’t sleep on Cade Otten who is one of my favorite TE’s on the slate. Jalen McMillan has slotted in as the WR3 in his rookie year and the reports out of traning camp/in the preseason have been promising.

I do think you likely need a come back from the Commanders here but we’re just not quite sure where the offense is going to come from with Jayden Daniels under center. The only sure thing is Scary Terry McLaurin who has said he loves what he’s seen out of Daniels so far in the preseason, he’s my primary target, but guys like Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are both viable too.

Rhamondre Stevenson RB New England Patriots

Ownership: DK 6.7%

Salary: DK $5900

Pretty quiet on the Stevenson front this offseason. Feel like he’s getting ZERO buzz. Has the potential to get MONSTER usage which we saw last year at times and this offense should be much improved with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.

Antonio Gibson’s addition makes me a little nervous but I really expect Stevenson to get at least 60% of the snaps at the RB. Averaged about 5 targets a game, which makes him an elite option on DK in my opinion.

I just don’t see any downside with Stevenson (outside of Gibson, but that’s iffy) and in a game scenario where they are likely down, the passing work could be even higher.

Javonte Williams RB Denver Broncos

Ownership: DK 4.8%

Salary: DK $5500

I predict that at the end of the season, Javonte Williams is on the winning best ball team on all of the sites. He’s going to have a monster year in this improved offense now that he’s healthy and it starts in week 1 in a great matchup against the Seahawks.

This offense looks MUCH improved with Bo Nix at the helm and Williams was smashing at the end of last season with guys like Brett Rypien under center.

Jaleel McLaughlin is a legit threat on the passing downs, but I still think Williams ends up being a bellcow here who is only spelled by McLaughlin, especially early in the season.

Props here are great, and think this is a sneaky spot to get on him before the rest of the field does, as my expectation is that he’ll be a chalk RB option in the next few weeks.

Khalil Shakir WR Buffalo Bills 

Ownership: 5.1%

Salary: DK $5100

Literally all I really need to write here is…”Who else is Josh Allen going to throw the ball too?”

The Bills felt comfortable enough letting both Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs go and now Khalil Shakir is like Will Smith in the last episode of Fresh Prince looking around asking who is left?

Keon Coleman is going to be a guy at some point, but especially at this point early in the season I think Shakir is going to be the guy (outside of Dalton Kincaid who ‘should’ smash too), and Allen loved him at the end of last year too.

This is the highest total on the slate and a lot of the guys aren’t projecting super high owned right now, so I want as many pieces of this as I can.

Andre Iosivas WR Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: DK 2.56%

Salary: DK $3000

This play felt better when there was a chance that Chase would miss week 1/hold out, but I still like Iosivas at the dead min price on DK.

Bengals are due a rebound year with their offense and while the Pats pose a bit of a tough test, Burrow and co should still be able to move the ball. Iosivas is the 3rd WR here and going to be on the field a ton. The usage remains to be seen, but he was involved last year at the end of the season and seems to be a guy that Burrow should look to often with coverage draped over Chase/Higgins.

Can’t really go wrong at the price ownership combo.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Geno Smith QB Seattle Seahawks

Ownership: FD 4.5%

Salary: FD $7000

Geno gets a great game environment against the Broncos in week 1 and has one of the top 5 implied team totals on the slate.

Has a variety of weapons to choose from with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Everyone and their mother is going to play Kenneth Walker on FD and this is what we call correlated leverage. Where we pivot off the chalk to someone else on the team who, if they are doing well, the chalk likely isn’t.

JSN is my preferred stack piece here, as I think he’s due for a massive year, and Pat Surtain will be on Metcalf. Run it back with Javonte Williams and you are on your way to a solid GPP lineup.

Devin Singletary RB New York Giants

Ownership: FD: 4.3%

Salary: FD $6300

I love the Vikings Defense this week, but Singletary is in a great spot here, potentially getting a TON of work, especially in week 1.

A top 5 projected points/$ play on the slate on FD, Singletary has the chance to be ‘THE’ guy in Daboll’s offense. I think he has sneaky pass catching upside too, which adds to the floor on FD and is a big boost on DK.

Don’t hate targeting both RB’s in this game (Jones and Singletary) as it should be somewhat sloppy with the passing offenses and teams leaning on the run.

Aaron Jones RB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: FD 10%

Salary: FD $6800

Jones just barely makes the cut of the under 10% criteria (and probably won’t by game time) but I needed to include him because…

A: I LOVE LOVE LOVE HIM THIS WEEK. He’s a core play for me.

B: Geek isn’t convinced he gets a huge workload so this is my chance to publicly prove him wrong.

C: I’m a diehard, bleed purple and gold, Vikings fan.

Seriously though, let’s look at it with some perspective.

The Giants are trash, and haven’t gotten any better on defense only worse.

Sam Darnold is serviceable at QB and should be able to move them up and down the field, but the emphasis this season will absolutely be on the run game.

Ty Chandler is NOT cutting into his workload. Maybe a bit on 3rd down, but Jones is a quality pass catcher too.

All signs point to MEGA usage in week 1. And I’m here for it. Smash spot, GPP winning mutli TD upside for the former Packer.

Greg Dortch WR Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: FD <1%

Salary: FD $4600

The Cards and Bills are in the highest total on the slate yet, one of the best pass catchers on the Cardinals is sub 1% owned? Nonsense.

Dortch should slot in as the WR3 for the Cards behind rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and second year man Michael Wilson. He’ll play a ton of snaps, and all reports out of camp and from the coaching staff are that he’s going to have a big year.

Low price, big upside, type of player that makes your lineup work and can differentiate you in GPP.

Kylen Granson TE Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: FD 1.17%

Salary: FD: $4600

There are no ‘slam dunk’ TE’s on the slate this week and because of that I’m willing to take some chances and throw darts on guys with upside.

Granson DEFINITELY fits that definition. Has a great QB in Richardson who is going to sling it and he’s the best pass catcher of the bunch of TE’s who should play.

 

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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