Bruins over 99.5 points (-120) – The Bruins ended last year with 109 points, and I don’t really see a 10 point drop off in the cards here. Sure they lost Jake Debrusk, but they added Elias Lindholm up front, who is a very well-rounded 2-way center. The Bruins still have the Bruins identity, with a great starting goalie in Jeremy Swayman, and a great defensive core. Adding Zadorov to an already stacked defense is pretty scary, especially when they are all giant and imposing like he is. Defense wins championships, and they are my favorite value at +1800 to win the Stanley Cup as well.
Sabres under 88.5 points (-115) – 89 points would be a 5 point increase from their 84 points last season. I simply think the competition around them has gotten better. Buffalo quite simply hasn’t done enough to convince me that they can be in the hunt in March, and 89 points at least gets people talking about playoff contention. Their bottom 6 isn’t very strong, their goaltending is streaky, and they have a new head coach in Lindy Ruff. I do like their top 3 defensemen in Power, Dahlin, and Byram, but I just don’t see enough goals being scored up front; especially after they got rid of Jeff Skinner.
Hurricanes under 100.5 points (-115) – This would be an 11 point drop off feom the 111 points they had last year, but I think it is very warranted. The Hurricanes lost Teravainen, Guentzel, Pesce, and Skjei this past offseason, which leaves major holes in their roster which they didn’t properly fill. Those are two top-6 wingers, and two top-4 defensemen, ouch! Their goaltending is a giant question mark, and both Jordan Staal and Brent Burns are a year older which is not ageist, it’s realism. They may still be in the hunt come playoff time, but 101 points would put them firmly in, and I am not convinced of that.
Flames under 81.5 points (-115) – The Flames are fully embracing the rebuild, and some of their veteran players may be traded out of Calgary by the deadline. They traded their goalie Jacob Markstrom, and are fully embracing youngster Dustin Wolf as their guy. The Flames’ bottom 3 defensemen are not great, and this lineup may score the least goals in the NHL. The Flames had 81 points last year, and I don’t see a path for them to improve upon that given how their team looks on paper.
Blackhawks over 73.5 points (-110) – The Blackhawks will start improving year over year starting this season. 74 points would be a huge jump from their 52 points last season, but I can easily see it. Last year it was rookie Connor Bedard and then just some guys, and this past offseason, the Wirtz family let GM Kyle Davidson open their wallet. Chicago added Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, Taylor Hall, Ilya Mikheyev, TJ Brodie, Alec Martinez, and Laurent Brossoit. That would fill in their roster with two top-6 forwards, two middle-6 forwards, two bottom-pair defensemen, and a formidable backup goalie. Basically, it’s time for a culture shift in Chicago, and now Connor Bedard has some talent to pass to. I don’t see them making the playoffs, but I can see 80’ish points for sure.
Panthers under 102.5 points (-115) – The Panthers had 110 points last season, and I can see a drop off fdom last year; although I see them firmly in the playoffs. They lost a lot of their depth pieces off of their team which made their identity what it was, and they lost their powerplay catalyst in Brandon Montour. Kevin Stenlund, Ryan Lomberg, Vladimir Taresanko, Nick Cousins, Kyle Okposo, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Brandon Montour are gone. Even though they kept all of their superstars, and committed money to youngster Anton Lundell, those depth pieces hurt in the short-term.
Capitals over 89.5 points (-120) – The Capitals had 91 points last year, and I absolutely love what this team did. This is one of my favorite bets of the early season, because it is predicting the Capitals being worse than last year, which I don’t understand. Pierre-Luc Dubois surely is a big gamble, but those big players are what the Capitals like to motivate. Dubois isn’t going to want to get chewed out by Tom Wilson. The Capitals added the aforementioned Pierre-Luc Dubois, as well as Andrew Mangiapane, Brandon Duhaime, Taylor Raddysh, Jacob Chychrun, Matt Roy, and Logan Thompson. All of those forwards play an in your face style, and both Chychrun and Roy are top-4 defensemen that can improve a team on their own. Logan Thompson is also a good goalie who can backup or carry the load. This is a playoff team for me.
Kings under 96.5 points (-115) – The Kings had 99 points last year, and I see them being worse than they were last year. I can even envision a world where they miss the playoffs. Kopitar and Doughty are a year older, sorry again; and their goaltending situation is an absolute mess. Cam Talbot is gone, and Darcy Kuemper is in, which after last year, is a significant downgrade. Matt Roy and Pierre-Luc Dubois are also gone. If the Kings have a chance, their young defensemen of Jordan Spence and Brandt Clarke are really going to have to step up. Joel Edmundson who they added on defense simply is not good. In maybe the toughest division in the league, the Kings regressed in my opinion.
Canadiens over 76.5 points (-115) – The Habs had 76 points on the dot last year, and they didn’t change a whole lot on their roster. In saying that I see these younger teams naturally progressing, and I can see that here. Juraj Slafkovsky, Lane Hutson, Kirby Dach, Arbor Xhekaj, Kaiden Guhle, and Cole Caufield are all young studs. If even half of them get slightly better, then logically the Habs will have a slightly higher point total compared to last year. Adding Patrik Laine’s upside doesn’t hurt either.
Devils over 100.5 points (-115) – This would be a major point difference from the 81 points the Devils accrued last year. However, I love what Tom Fitzgerald did with the roster, and I think Sheldon Keefe is a better coach than what people gave him credit for. Dougie Hamilton and Jack Hughes were hurt a lot last year, and they are the heartbeat of the Devils. Also, their goaltending was atrocious, and now they have Jacob Markstrom, who is a bonafide starting goalie. Defensively, Brendan Dillion and Brett Pesce were sneaky A-tier additions, and both Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec are a year older. Their defense is top 3-5 in the NHL, to go along with their high-octane offensive scoring punch. Noesen and Cotter are also good depth adds at forward. This team is my Metropolitan division winner.
Predators over 98.5 points (-125) – The Predators had 99 points last year, which is the exact amount you need for this bet; and they aggressively built their roster with great veterans. Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei all signed as free agents in Nashville, and they lost nothing off of their roster. I don’t really see how they got worse compared to last year. Skjei may be one of the sneakiest best players from free agency, as he is just a great defenseman.
Oct 22, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Nashville Predators left wing Filip Forsberg (9) shoots the puck during the first period against the Philadelphia Flyers at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Penguins under 90.5 points (-115) – The Penguins had 88 points last year, and I don’t see improvement on this roster. Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Karlsson, are all another year older, which again, is a thing. The Penguins were actually healthy last year, and still only had 88 points, so what happens if a core piece gets injured? Kevin Hayes, Anthony Beuvillier, and Matt Gryzelcyk aren’t strong additions, and there is no team speed on this roster. Also they will very much miss Jake Guentzel. Their goaltending is also a giant question mark with Jarry and Nedeljkovic always being streaky and injured.
Blue Jackets over 69.5 (-110) – With the Don Waddell and Dean Evason era approaching in Columbus, I believe improvements will proceed. The CBJ had 66 points last year and were super inexperienced and injured. Ofcourse natural growth happens with young players, but with a new head coach and Waddell wanting to fix the goals against, I think the CBJ will be better defensively and wanting to prove themselves to their new coach. On paper, their defense should be much better, and a healthy Werenski helps with that. 70 points is only 4 better than last year, give me that over.
Utah over 87.5 (-115) – Utah will get naturally better with Guenther and Cooley getting one year older, but that wasn’t the main story this offseason with Utah. The Smiths won’t stand for mediocrity, and in the blink of an eye added 2 stallions on their defensive core with Mikhail Sergachev and John Marino. 88 points would be a big upgrade from last year’s 77, but they made those big upgrades. Also they will be playing in a sold out NHL arena for all 41 home games instead a 4,000 seat NCAA arena.
Best End Of Season Award Values:
Norris Trophy Winner – Roman Josi +1200
Vezina Trophy Winner – Jake Oettinger +1200
Calder Trophy Winner – Dustin Wolf +1000
Selke Trophy Winner – Nico Hischier +1200
Stanley Cup Winner – Boston Bruins +1800