Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Thursday, and we have five early games followed by a seven-game main slate. If you need a break from the larger slates, today is your kind of day. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have plenty of options today, as both the early games and main slates feature some pitchers with solid KSCOREs, some with high SIERAs, and plenty in between. Spending up is always an option, but there are several in the lower and mid-range that offer some potential upside. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Reds and Nationals. Williamson and Gore get the start, along with a healthy 10.0 total. There are some moderate weather concerns to keep tabs on, but otherwise, this looks like a great way to start the day.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – McLain/India, Steer
GPP note – Gore is allowing plenty to righties, but he’s also allowing decent xwOBA to lefties, so don’t be afraid to try your luck there.
Nationals 4.5 star plays – Thomas
Nationals 4 star plays – Candelario
GPP note – Same exact scenario as above, just with a little bit more love from Vegas.
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have the Athletics and Tigers, with Harris and Lorenzen on the mound. We get an 8.5 total along with some hefty weather concerns, so if you decide to go here, you’d do well to keep an eye on the skies.
Athletics 4 star plays – Brown
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Kemp
GPP note – Lorenzen is allowing moderate contact and power to lefties and some xwOBA to righties.
Tigers 4.5 star plays – Torkelson/Baez
Tigers 4 star plays – Rogers
GPP note – Righties have the power advantage while lefties have the xwOBA advantage against Harris.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Stroman and the Cubs will take on Peralta and the Brewers next, as we move down to an 8.0 total. Both pitchers offer a good shot at a quality start, and I would not be surprised to see this game go under. Expect them to have some ownership, and don’t be afraid to go contrarian on these smaller slates.
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Suzuki/Morel
GPP note – Peralta carries plenty of strikeout upside but is also allowing power to both sides, so this wouldn’t be a terrible spot to hedge if you decide to grab some bats here.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Adames
GPP note – Stroman carries his own upside but hasn’t been allowing a whole lot of power, so be careful here.
St Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
Next up we have Flaherty and the Cardinals set to take on Perez and the Marlins. Another 8.0 total, Vegas is giving the advantage to the home team here, rather than it being split down the middle like the previous game.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Gorman/Walker/Nootbaar
GPP note – Perez got roughed up in his last start, so I’d be careful here as he’s bound to come in a bit more focused and out for some strikeouts.
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Arraez
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler/De La Cruz
GPP note – Flaherty is allowing decent contact to both sides and some power to righties.
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays
Our final early game will be between the Phillies and Rays, with Sanchez and Armstrong on the mound. We get an 8.5 total to start with, with the home team getting the bigger share of that pie. I suspect that there’s a good chance of this one seeing the over, as both sides will be in a spot to hit for some power.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Castellanos/Turner
GPP note – It’s hard to know what to expect out of the bullpen, but there are some bats here hitting righties for power.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz/Siri
GPP note – Sanchez allows good power to righties and decent wOBA to lefties, so you can grab bats from either side here.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Main slate
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Orioles and Yankees. Bradish and Severino will get the start, and with hem, a 9.0 total. Vegas has this game set pretty tightly, with just a slight edge to the visitors. Considering the pitching matchup though, I could see the O’s taking it by more than just a run or two.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Henderson
GPP note – Severino is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so bats from both sides are in play here.
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo, Torres/Bauers
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Stanton/Donaldson
GPP note – Bradish allows moderate power to lefties and carries decent strikeout upside, so this is a decent hedge option.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we’ll have Lyles and my Royals taking on Bibee and the Guardians. A 9.0 total, this is another game with a poor weather outlook, so be sure to keep an eye on things here as the Cleveland offense is bound to be a popular choice today.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Garcia
GPP note – Bibee allows some decent power to righties, so while this isn’t a great spot, a couple of contrarian bats here could be useful.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylor/Bell, Gimenez/Brennan
GPP note – Lefties are getting lots of contact and power out of Lyles and the bullpen, so this will be a good spot to go to.
Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Eovaldi and the Rangers will take on Crawford and the Red Sox next, and we get another juicy 10.0 total here. Vegas likes both teams to do some damage, but they do like Texas just a little more. That’s interesting to me considering the overall matchup, so I suppose they don’t know that Eovaldi can find another gem today against one of his old teams.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Heim, Semien/Garcia/Lowe, Jankowski
GPP note – A fine spot overall, though righties have been getting more out of Crawford than lefties, so don’t forget to have exposure to them.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Yoshida
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Verdugo/Turner/Casas
GPP note – Another hedge option, Eovaldi has shown plenty of upside but is allowing moderate power to both sides of the plate.
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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Next up we’ll see Kirby and the Mariners taking on Valdez and the Astros. I don’t have any insight from Vegas just yet, but considering the starters, this could be a tight game with some scoring on the lower side of things on the day.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez/Hernandez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Crawford/Murphy
GPP note – Valdez has been a tough target and for the most part has only been allowing a modest amount of xwOBA to righties as of late.
Astros 4 star plays – Tucker, Bregman/Altuve
Astros 3.5 star plays – McCormick
GPP note – Kirby has been strict to righties but is allowing good contact and power to lefties, though there may not be many to choose from.
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Kikuchi and the Blue Jays will take on Banks and the White Sox next, and with them we have a 9.0 total. Vegas likes the Blue Jays here, though as usual, it’s not a bad idea to hedge with Kikuchi. As for his offense, either way I’m sure that they’ll get theirs, as they have a nice matchup awaiting them.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Merrifield
GPP note – Banks is allowing lots of power to both sides, so you can try to work in any lefties that get a start here for ownership leverage.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Vaughn
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Anderson, Jimenez/Grandal/Burger
GPP note – Kikuchi’s low floor and high ceiling make him a great hedge target as usual. He’s allowing good power to both sides, so hand matchup won’t matter very much if you stack against him.
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
We head to our late games next, the first between the Mets and Diamondbacks. Another appealing 10.0 total, Vegas has the home team as the favorite, but both teams are in a good spot to do some damage here, so this could be one of the higher scoring games on the day, if not the highest.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo, McNeil/Pham
GPP note – Lefties and righties alike are getting plenty out of Nelson, so you can stack here and hope they come together for a good game.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Walker/Gurriel
GPP note – Same as above. Don’t be afraid to game stack some lineups, as both offenses are in a pretty good spot.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap the day up with he Pirates and Dodgers, as Oviedo and Urias will face off. A 9.0 total, this will be Urias’ second game back, and he’ll be looking to have better luck here than he did against KC.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Santana, McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Joe
GPP note – Not a lot of love here from Vegas, but these bats are hitting lefties well and can get hot at a moment’s notice.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman, Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Smith, Peralta/Muncy, Heyward
GPP note – Oviedo allows good xwOBA to both sides, so you may want to run some righties with the lefties to help with ownership concerns.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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