Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We kick off a new workweek and are met by a lone showdown game followed by a 9-game main slate. We get a few familiar faces with new teams, so be sure to update your databases if you track that sort of thing. Anyway, there’s plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a nice variety of pitching options today, as half of the starters on the main slate carry a KSCORE north of the 500 mark. On the flip side, there are five with SIERAs above 4.50, though unfortunately a few of them are in chalky matchups, so they won’t be sneaky targets to attack. At any rate, it would be hard to argue against Burnes as an all-purpose option, so if you’re playing cash games, you’ll probably want to plug him in. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early game
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
We’ll touch on the showdown game first, as the Phillies and Marlins will square off just before the main slate begins. Walker and Cabrera will get the start here, along with an 8.0 total. Vegas is giving a slight nod to the visitors, which is probably fair, though I do see this game being pretty tight with a decent amount of back-and-forth between the offenses.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper/Schwarber
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Stott, Castellanos
GPP note – Cabrera allows most of the damage against him to lefties, so going with traditional splits here is probably the way to go.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez, Chisholm
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler/Cooper, De La Cruz
GPP note – Lefties get the statcast advantage here as well, but it’s never a bad idea to have exposure to the power righties on this squad.
Main slate
Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Brewers and Nationals. Burnes and Irvin will get the start, and with them, an 8.5 total. The visitors are favored here, which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, as they look to have the advantage on all fronts.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Conteras, Santana/Adames
GPP note – Irvin is allowing almost equal xwOBA and power to both sides of the plate, so you don’t have to focus solely on the lefties here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Abrams, Candelario/Meneses
GPP note – Tough spot for these bats, but Burnes does allow moderate power to lefties on occasion, should you decide to go contrarian.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Next up we have Glasnow and the Rays set to take on German and the Yankees. Another 8.5 total, we’ll see how well these starters can endure their opponent, as both sides have some big names and salaries at their disposal. This doesn’t seem like a bad spot to do some hedging.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Siri/Diaz
GPP note – Domingo allows some decent contact and power to both sides and carries plenty of strikeout upside, making him a prime target to hedge against.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo/Stanton/Torres
GPP note – Sort of the same as above, though Glasnow has been more strict to righties than German has been.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Gibson and the Orioles will take on Bassitt and the Blue Jays next, as we move up to a 9.0 total. Though Bassitt can hold his own, I think this game is a good candidate to hit the over, though some light hedging with him might not be a terrible idea.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Henderson/Frazier/O’Hearn
GPP note – Bassitt can be tough but he is allowing equal (moderate) xwOBA to both sides and some decent power to lefties.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Merrifield/Bichette/Chapman, Belt
GPP note – Gibson allows decent power to righties, so don’t be afraid to make some big RvR stacks here.
Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have Canning and the Angels set to take on Morton and the Braves, as we move up once again, this time to a 10.0 total. Vegas is giving most of that to the home team, which I suppose shouldn’t be much of a surprise, but so long as Ohtani can do his thing, I think that this game could be a little closer than what they’re calling for.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Moniah/Moustakas
GPP note – Morton isn’t allowing much power to either side but he is allowing decent xwOBA to righties, so you can roll them out along with Ohtani.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Albies, Riley/Murphy
GPP note – Canning allows plenty of contact and power to both sides but does also carry some strikeout upside, so it’s not the worst idea to hedge a little here.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Moving right along, our next matchup will be between the Reds and Cubs, with Abbott and Stroman on the mound. An 8.0 total, this game could certainly see the under, as both starters are capable of throwing a gem and leaving their opponents mostly empty handed. However, both offenses have their upside, so if you’re into hedging, this might not be a bad spot to do as such.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 3.5 star plays – McLain/Friedl, Fraley/Votto
GPP note – Stroman has some reverse splits working against him, as most of the power he’s allowing as of late has gone to righties.
Cubs 4 star plays – Swanson/Happ, Bellinger/Suzuki
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Gomes
GPP note – Another decent hedge spot on the day, Abbott carries 10+ strikeout upside but also has a few games where he’s given up a couple of homers.
Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros
Next up we get Syndergaard and the Guardians taking on France and the Astros. We get a 9.0 total for this game, and if Syndergaard keeps doing what he’s been doing most of the year, Houston might hit that all by themselves. Though I don’t see Cleveland really keeping pace, there do at least have some bats in good spots, so don’t forget about them completely.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez, Naylor
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Gimenez/Bell
GPP note – Though there’s not a ton of strikeout upside here, France has done a good job of mitigating damage, so this could just be a dud spot all around. I’d probably stick to smaller stacks here.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
GPP note – I’m going to assume that Syndergaard’s struggles will continue, so stack away (though you could always hedge a little in case he reverts back to his better form).
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head to our Coors game next, this time between the Padres and Rockies. Lugo and Gomber get the start here, as we get a juicy 12.0 total. We also get some significant looking weather concerns, so be sure you’re keeping an eye on the skies here, as this San Diego offense is bound to be extra chalky tonight.
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis/Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Bogaerts
GPP note – If they play, oh boy! If not, oh darn!
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon/Profar
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Tovar/Diaz
GPP note – If they play, I’d be interested in hedging some with Lugo.
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Pivetta and the Red Sox will take on Kirby and the Mariners next, as we move back down to another 8.0 total. This one seems interesting to me, as we have some inexpensive starters with relatively low totals, as well as plenty of bats that are hitting well in the matchup that they’ll see. At any rate, Vegas likes Seattle here, but my gut is telling me that Boston will take the W.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida/Casas/Duran, Turner/Duvall
GPP note – These guys are hitting righties much better than what this implied total would lead one to believe, so don’t be afraid to go here.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Hernandez/Suarez/Raleigh
GPP note – Pivetta allows some power to lefties, but also carries a good chunk of strikeout upside, making him a good budget SP2 hedge target.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap things up with the Diamondbacks and Giants, as Nelson will take on Cobb and co. Another 8.0 total, the home team is favored here as well, though I could see it going either way. Both pitchers seem to have their ups and downs, so it’ll likely just come down to which one shows up in better form.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Walker
GPP note – Lefties have the statcast advantage, but Cobb is allowing moderate power to righties, too.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Pederson/Conforto
Giants 4 star plays – Davis
GPP note – Nelson is allowing plenty of power to both sides and comes in with a low strikeout rate, so you can go after him however you see fit here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Jul 30, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) and Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports