Become a profitable MLB DFS player by learning where the field is going and who they are missing. Take educated shot plays today and increase your chances at winning that huge tournament on Fanduel or Draftkings with proven strategy. Chalk and Pivots starts NOW!
Apr 20, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) throws against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
MLB DFS Starting Pitcher Chalk
Kodai Senga (NYM) – This man looks like a fireballer with an 11.9 K/9 on the year and a price tag still under $10000 on Fanduel. Many people will start here for good reason. Senga is estimated at nearly 30% of all tournament lineups tonight.
Nestor Cortes Jr (NYY) – And, right behind Kodai Senga is Nestor Cortes at 27% projected ownership. Often, we find just one higher owned pitcher (especially on Fanduel), but tonight we find two. Splitting ownership is like splitting a political ticket…it does reduce the dominance of these players in a majority of your opponents’ lineups.
Nevertheless, both have high floors for MLB DFS cash games and can be faded in tournaments for similar upside at lower ownership.
Pivots Sure to Deliver Leverage
MLB DFS Research Station – Stats suite of every number imaginable from strikeout numbers to hitting trends!
Bryce Miller (SEA) – Picking on Oakland is a thing! I can’t tell you how many raw optimizer runs I’ve made this past two weeks that just lock in any starter facing the Athletics. Tonight, we get this matchup at sub-10% ownership across the field. When OAK is striking out at a 25%+ rate to handedness (see Research Station above), we have a strong ceiling possibility for Miller.
Remember, MLB DFS slates vary daily. We don’t always have a thousand pitching pivots to mention. There are some more sensible plays tonight, but no one stands out as having the strikeout upside we look for when fading the chalk. Good news, though! You can also differentiate those lineups with bats…
High Owned Hitting Stacks Today
San Diego Padres – After last night’s explosion, plenty will be going back to the well tonight with Padres bats. Currently, San Diego leads our overall lineup ownership projections at 142%! With Coors Field on the slate, this is a telling number. Bats are volatile, Padres present an easy fade tonight in MLB DFS.
Miami Marlins – Don’t nap on the Marlins. This might be one of the very few times this year we consider them “chalky.” The visiting team in Denver almost always carries a ton of ownership, and for good reason. But after scoring only 3 and 4 runs the first two games of this series, the Marlins and their team OPS of .692 this year don’t present a great case for “fade MIA at your own risk.” It’s actually a quite sensible play.
Under the Radar but Capable of Winning Huge Cash
Spot those under-the-radar teams super fast with DFS Army’s “Leverage Stacks” Tool. Defaulted to the teams we feel offer the most leverage (combination of points, ownership, and salary) on the slate tonight, you can load up these stacks with confidence.
Seattle Mariners – Ranked at the top of our “Leverage Stacks” Tool shown above, the Mariners have been handing out tridents like dentists hand out sugar-free chewing gum (80’s kids get the joke here). Not the lowest ownership, but given everyone is on San Diego (and paying a premium), Seattle gives you a completely different lineup construction with their bargain pricing. Heck, if you load in Seattle first, you can be plenty different just playing Padres with them.
Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore is for real this year, and they showed it against Gerrit Cole last night. Why more people don’t play them may befuddle me, but I don’t care. I’m using them a lot. The O’s have cranked the power back up recently ranking 5th in all of MLB in HRs this past week…and we all know how skewed MLB DFS scoring is towards the long ball. Shhh…but with the bigger bases and pitch clock, BAL also steals bases with impunity, ranking 5th there as well across the season to date. You also get the bonus of double-dipping a chalky pitcher in Nestor Cortes should the Orioles touch him up and get into the backside of the Yankee bullpen.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Any time you get the chance to play Dodgers at lower ownership you should consider them. While you were sleeping the last couple days (or focusing on Coors or Houston), the LA Dodgers posted back to back 8 run games….once against a guy named Spencer Strider. And here we go again, everyone is looking the other way….Dodgers are in play!
If you like multiple opinions on things, you should unlock our MLB DFS cheatsheets. Several coaches team up daily to cover every slate with pitching, hitting, value, and stack options….with detailed notes!
MLB DFS “Core” Plays Everyone is Using
Luis Arraez (MIA), Garrett Cooper (MIA), Jorge Soler (MIA) – A lot of lineups are going to start here with their builds. It’s cheap, it has a floor, and it has some pop. It’s also in Coors Field. I’m not going on record as saying it’s “wrong.” Depending on your contest selection, it might be very sensible.
However, bats are fickle beasts in MLB DFS. And, we can almost always benefit from some uniqueness, creativity, and differentiation.
High Risk, High Reward 6-Pack of Players
Mookie Betts (LAD) – If we want to get off the beaten path while maintaining gpp-winning upside, Mookie is hardly ever a poor choice. He leads off, hits for power, and steals bases. Not to mention, he has scored 36 fantasy points while in ATL for his two games this week.
Jarred Kelenic (SEA) – Seattle isn’t exactly sneaking up on anyone tonight, but they are not where most people start their builds for some reason. Kelenic hits in the 3-hole and has scored 9+ fantasy points in 7 of his last 10 games….three of which are over 20 points. In this “plus matchup,” he should anchor your Mariners stacks.
Aaron Judge (NYY) – No one is thinking about Judge tonight because they are searching for value instead. Sit down for this one, though…..Aaron Judge has hit 6 bombs in his last 7 games, posting a minimum of 21 fantasy points in 6 of those games.
Gleyber Torres (NYY) – Ok, ok, so Aaron Judge projects at 22% ownership and isn’t exactly a high risk pivot with his recent destruction of baseballs. But, pairing him with the only guy hitting in front of him in the Yankee lineup is high risk. You parlay points with Torres on base in front of Judge, and Torres has his own pop from time to time.
Sandy Alcantra (MIA) – Sandy faces Colorado in Coors Field. As a result, he carries well under 10% ownership tonight. He has Cy Young upside which resonates in MLB DFS like always. And, he is nearly a $2000 discount on Fanduel compared to his usual $10,500+ price tag. A discount, low ownership, and big upside? Where do I sign?!!
Lane Thomas (WSH) – This might catch people off guard, and that’s the point of this section to a degree. Thomas leads off for a completely forgotten Nationals team. However, Lane Thomas is raking recently. Five of eight games with 20+ fantasy points, three of which have home runs. He makes a great 1-off play with his silly $3000 price tag when everyone else tonight will just run into Seattle or San Diego for their value bats. Thomas makes the perfect starting point if you are paying up anywhere else in your lineup.
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