Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/9:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Nestor Cortes
- Drew Rasmussen
- Tyler Mahle
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Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Astros – Hunter Brown
Twins – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. The Twins pitching staff has been dominant to begin the season while their offense has been below average. Houston hasn’t been very dangerous offensively and we have seen them striking out more than in years past. I am really shocked to see this game as EVEN, as I think the Twins should be in the -140 range, if I am being honest. Buxton might be able to get himself another dinger today.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Houston has just 10 extra-base hits in 291 PAs against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Brown has been very reverse splits-y at the MLB level.
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays (-292)
Pitchers:
A’s – James Kaprielian
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The TB offense is absolutely rolling right now and then you add in how hot their pitching staff has been and you get a massive favorite against the weak OAK squad. Rasmussen generally doesn’t have a ton of K upside but he came out and dominated to begin the season and could continue that today. It’s hard to jump off of the chalky Rays right now and I won’t be but we have to understand that some regression will hit at some point.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Noda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Luke Raley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .301 against RHPs so far.
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves (-120)
Pitchers:
Padres – Seth Lugo
Braves – Dylan Dodd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get an interesting Sunday night game between these two. Lugo was great in his first start but Atlanta has seen him plenty and they are much tougher than the Rockies. Dodd managed a decent debut start but the overall numbers aren’t like he actually dominated. The Padres have struggled against LHPs so far in 2023 but they have a few guys that can hit LHPs really well so they should turn that around at some point.
SD 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Just 9 extra-base hits in 116 PAs against LHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Acuna and Olson are a combined 7 for 12 against Lugo.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. When I first looked at this match-up, I wanted to be sneaky and be on the Detmers side. After looking at how TOR has swung the bat this series, I have a hard time suggesting Detmers as anything more than a 5-10% type of a play. The Angels have seen Kikuchi plenty and he hasn’t fared very well against them, especially against the bat of one Mike Trout.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: The three above have 4 HRs in this series.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: The Angels roster is a combined 31 for 90 with an OPS of 1.026 against Kikuchi.
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Texas Rangers @ Chicago Cubs (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gray was strong in his 2023 debut, taking a 2-0 loss against BAL. He allowed just 2 solo HRs while striking out 7. I could see him continuing that strong start but Bellinger has seen and hit him plenty. Taillon had a pretty rough Cubs debut after having a pretty strong spring. Wrigley is one of the better parks for hitting today so it’s going to be tough to be interested in either pitcher as more than just an MME sprinkle.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Bellinger is 11 for 23 with 6 extra-base hits against Gray.
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies (-178)
Pitchers:
Reds – Connor Overton
Phillies – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The numbers tell me that I should be on Walker today, so I am going to have to dig in more to see if I need to be there. There is definitely some power in this game against RHPs so I wouldn’t be shocked to see it get over the 8.5 number. The weather is so-so but the game is tied for third in terms of our best hitter ratings today. Bryson Stott just keeps hitting right now but it would be nice if he added some power.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan, Tyler Stephenson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox (EVEN) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Oviedo was lit up by Boston LHBs in his season debut and that doesn’t bode well for him as the White Sox have been rolling offensively. Kopech was lit up by the Giants in his first start so there’s a lot of questions going on but when looking at his MLB starts, he’s bounced back a lot after rough performances. I really like his arm talent so I may put my hat in the Kopech ring today, even if it scares the hell out of me.
CHW 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Oscar Colas, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Reynolds is 13 for 28 with 5 HRs, 2 2Bs, and a 3B against RHPs so far.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-155)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jake Woodford
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I think the Brewers bounce back after a rough performance (predicted in my pitching video). Peralta is a guy that could come out and dominate or he could give up 2 HRs in the first 2 innings against this STL squad. Aside from Goldy and Arenado, the rest of the STL roster has been pretty bad against Peralta in their careers. I was impressed with how Woodford threw the baseball this spring but that didn’t carry over into his first start.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Arenado and Goldschmidt have combined for 5 HRs against Peralta.
MIL 5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Willy Adames
4-star plays: Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs so far.
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Seattle Mariners (-135) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. While the Guardians don’t strike out much, they aren’t very potent right now. I think that Kirby becomes a very interesting option for us despite the lowered K expectations. He certainly could be dinked and dunked but the Guardians have just 13 extra-base hits in 233 PAs against RHPs. I think there is a better chance that the Mariners do a bunch of damage than the Guardians.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .096 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox (-120) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Kutter Crawford
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I so badly want to jump on Kutter Crawford today and hope that the Tigers offense cures whatever issues he had in his first start of the season. Boyd is a guy that can strike dudes out but the BOS offense is swinging it well, especially against LHPs. It’s really hard to not just be all in on everything Boston today. The weather in Detroit is basically average today.
BOS 5-star plays: Adam Duvall
4-star plays: Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Duvall is 4 for 7 with 4 2Bs against LHPs to begin the season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ San Francisco Giants (-165)
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This game feels like we should be on the pitching and not a whole lot else. I think there are a couple of one-off bats, mainly JD Davis in this one. Bubic was solid against a difficult TOR lineup and now gets to face a SF lineup that can be very LH heavy. DeSclafani absolutely dominated a White Sox lineup that has looked strong recently so now he gets a much weaker lineup.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Davis, Bryce Johnson
GPP Note: Team is just 4 for 32 against LHPs so far.
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-155)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. By the looks of things, I have to believe that Carrasco will be somewhat popular on the main slate. The Marlins have a pretty low implied total but damn was he not very good in his first start. I think the Mets offense is in a great spot against Garrett and could see the top half doing a ton of damage as they seem to have a strong history against Garrett. Lindor has a couple of HRs against him while Alonso mashes LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Arraez is 12 for 25 against RHPs so far.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Starling Marte
GPP Note: 3 of Alonso’s 5 HRs have come against LHPs.
New York Yankees (-160) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Cortes is going to be one of my top pitchers on this slate but that’s based more on the overall weakness of SPs today. What stands out to me is the fact that the BAL roster has 89 PAs against him but just 14 hits while striking out 38 times. Wells was really strong/impressive against TEX but I just don’t think that carries over against this NYY squad that is hitting RHPs extremely well to begin 2023.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .305 against LHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Michael Grove
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Nelson was actually pretty decent in his first start so I am a little shocked at the 9.5 total. With that said, the Dodgers have smashed RHPs so far in 2023 as guys like Heyward, Thompson, and Outman have combined for 7 HRs. Grove was mediocre against COL in his first start but he went just 4 innings, throwing 63 pitches. We could see the ARI lineup continue their hot series against him.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: James Outman, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .265 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Geraldo Perdomo
GPP Note: Carroll is 3 for 5 with an HR against Grove and he’s always going to try to steal bases.
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies (-140)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Chad Kuhl
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. We have seen Coors show up the last 2 days after a 1-0 game on Thursday. The total has jumped up to 12 so runs are expected at the ballpark known for…runs. Kuhl made 12 starts in Coors last season so he has a pretty good feel for the park. He allowed just 10 HRs, which I find to be a pretty decent number. He allowed an average of .275. With that said, I don’t think he dominates by any means.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, CJ Abrams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Elehuris Montero, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Mets
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mike Trout, Angels
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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