Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/8:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Tanner Houck
- Kodai Senga
- Jeffrey Springs
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Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins (-115)
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Ryan was strong in his first start while Garcia wasn’t very sharp. The Twins pulled off the extra innings W yesterday after Sonny Gray was absolutely dominant. Minnesota is off to a solid start and that’s without Correa doing anything really. Buxton is swinging it decently but hasn’t had a big time game yet. Larnach is the guy that’s really stepped up and looks so much more comfortable this season. The Astros are always dangerous with Tucker and Alvarez in the middle.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Houston has just 9 extra-base hits in 241 PAs against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Trevor Larnach
4-star plays: Nick Gordon, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Larnach is 7 for 22 with 5 BBs against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays (-267)
Pitchers:
A’s – Shintaro Fujinami
Rays – Jeffrey Springs
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Springs looked great this spring and he started the season out exceptionally. That should continue in this spot, even if the A’s have been better than expected at the plate, especially against LHPs. The TB offense just keeps rolling, hitting HRs at an impressive pace. Wander looks the part of the super star that people were predicting years ago. Josh Lowe looks to have figure things out a bit as he was a pretty hyped, tools-y, prospect coming up.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aledmys Diaz
GPP Note: Just 12 Ks in 67 PAs against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Luke Raley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .291 against RHPs so far.
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves (-165)
Pitchers:
Padres – Michael Wacha
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We have some potential weather in this spot so I am hesitant to get here, despite my desire to stack each offense. There’s a ton of power upside on each side of this game but I will generally lean towards ATL, especially when they are playing at home. You are going to want to follow our weather channel in discord to get the latest updates as the day goes on.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Roster has 15 extra-base hits in 140 ABs against Morton.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team OPS of .926 against Wacha.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels (-120)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Joe Berrios
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We didn’t see the offense that I thought we would last night so maybe we see it tonight. Trout definitely showed up last night and then Bichette hit a huge HR late. It’s hard not to like the Angels against a struggling Berrios, especially when you look at how Ohtani has dominated against him so far. Chapman is swinging the bat extremely well to begin the season and if you wanted to flip flop he and Guerrero below, I wouldn’t argue.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs so far this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Ohtani is 6 for 14 with 3 HR, 3 2B, and 3 BB against Berrios.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Texas Rangers @ Chicago Cubs (-120)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Both pitchers were impressive in their season opener but Steele was the one that impressed me more. I was a fan coming into the season but I loved the way he attacked the Brewers. Neither squad has been potent against LHPs yet this season but both sides have guys that have done damage against LHPs either this season or throughout their careers. A name I could add below is Patrick Wisdom.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Josh Jung
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .102 against LHPs so far.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against LHPs so far.
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies (-145)
Pitchers:
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. It appears to be a little cold in Philly today (around 55) with a slight wind blowing in. I generally like to play teams in this ballpark but I also sneakily like both of these SPs today. Lodolo has a ton of K upside but he’s got some volatility while Falter hasn’t showcased big K ability but he seems to be able to contain offenses a bit more overall. Philly really needs Trea Turner to have a career 1st half to help keep them afloat.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman, Tyler Stephenson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 against LHPs this season (OPS of .815).
PHI 5-star plays: Alec Bohm
4-star plays: Trea Turner, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team roster has 11 Ks in 26 PAs against Lodolo.
Chicago White Sox (-130) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Pirates – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I can’t believe how some of PIT’s lineup has crushed weaker SPs to begin the season. They have a team ISO of .220 against RHPs despite having a number of guys hitting under .200 against them. It’s tough to figure out this CWS lineup as they haven’t been terrible when looking at the numbers but they haven’t been great when you look at the overall picture. Robert looks the part again and Moncada has started out pretty hot.
CHW 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Grandal is 4 for 10 with 2 HRs against Velasquez.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Reynolds is 12 for 25 with 5 HRs, 2 2Bs, and a 3B against RHPs so far.
St Louis Cardinals (-140) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I know that MIL has a strong ISO against LHPs so far this season but this feels like a lineup that is going to have struggles against LHPs as the season wears on. The most potent bats on the roster are LH. I generally love the Cardinals when they are facing an LHP so despite them struggling a bit the last couple, I think there’s a chance for a big time performance in this one.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Arenado and Goldschmidt have combined for 4 HRs against Lauer.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Mike Brosseau, Joey Wiemer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .244 against LHPs so far.
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Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians (-140)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both SPs struggled quite a bit in their opening start but the weather is pretty bad so I could see both with a bounce back today. Seattle hasn’t been great against RHPs to begin the season but I expect those numbers to turn around a bit. Cleveland is rocking a team ISO of .109 on the season but once again, they aren’t striking out a whole lot either. I expect a lot of balls to be put in play but, again, it’s going to be pretty cold.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Ty France
GPP Note: Julio is 4 for 5 with 2 HRs against Quantrill.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: The two above are a combined 7 for 12 with 4 extra-base hits against Gonzales.
Boston Red Sox (-155) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Tigers – Joey Wentz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I know I am going to walk the lineup with this one but Houck feels like a GREAT GPP option for us today. He wasn’t overly sharp in his first start but did enough to get the W against a hot BAL squad. This is another great spot for pitching options as the wind is blowing in (slightly) from center while it’s going to barely be over 50 degrees at first pitch. Wentz could be a sneaky GPP dart option but it’s tough to ignore what some of BOS is capable of against LHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Adam Duvall
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Duvall is 3 for 5 with 3 2Bs against LHPs to begin the season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team OPS of .587 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ San Francisco Giants (-135)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Giants – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I do not agree with Vegas on this one as the Giants shouldn’t be favored. I don’t think Manaea is a MLB starting pitcher any longer as he seems to have lost so much (either command or confidence) after struggling with SD last year. Singer was strong against a great TOR lineup to begin the season and he finished last year pretty strongly giving KC some hope for a future ace. The Giants have hit a ton of HRs (15 in 222 ABs) against RHPs to begin the season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .256 against LHPs so far.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Thairo Estrada, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .252 against RHPs.
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-155)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Mets – Kodai Senga
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Yet another game that’s going to be pretty cold today but the wind is very minimal at this point. I love me some Senga in this spot. He struggled a bit with command to begin his debut but settled in and racked up the Ks against a MIA team that is going to strike out a decent amount. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of adjustments they make against Senga’s “ghost” change. Rogers could be a sneaky GPP option but I love using a few of the Mets bats when they face LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Arraez went 2 for 3 against Senga last weekend.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against LHPs.
New York Yankees (-130) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jhony Brito
Orioles – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really wish it was about 10 degrees warmer in BAL because I want to see what kind of damage the Yankees could do against Irvin today. Brito looked great in his MLB debut and now faces a slightly tougher squad but one that has cooled a bit since their hot start. We do know that the Orioles are going to try and steal bags when they get on so we always have to get some exposure.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team has 4 HRs in 49 ABs against Irvin.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Noah Syndergaard
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This game has the second highest total on the slate of games, trailing only the Coors contest. We see some interesting BvP for the Dodgers as a few guys have hit Davies well but then a bunch of others have struggled against him. Syndergaard is a guy we are going to target with base stealers all season long as he just doesn’t care to keep guys close or try to contain the running game.
LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, David Peralta
GPP Note: Smith is 6 for 18 with 3 HR and 2 2B against Davies.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy
GPP Note: Arizona stole 2 bases against Syndergaard in his first start.
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies (-140)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Trevor Williams
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. I honestly didn’t expect WSH to blow-up, even in Coors, yesterday but I did think that Gore could throw a pretty strong game against COL. Yesterday’s performance makes me believe we could see some more runs in this battle of weak squads. The saving grace for Gomber might be how weak the WSH lineup has been against LHPs to begin the season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .061 against LHPs so far.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Roster has 6 HRs in 60 ABs against Williams.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Colorado Rockies
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- St Louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Shohei Ohtani
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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