Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a day full of games today, though it’s one of those rare Fridays when we don’t have a big main slate. Rather, things are cut down the middle, so it might feel more like what we had yesterday than what we’re used to. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
Offer ends this weekend, so act fast!
A look at pitchers
We get options both high and low on both slates today, so that should make tournaments interesting. As far as cash games go, Wheeler looks pretty good for the early games with Kershaw representing the main slate. We also have some volatile arms, such as Keller, who could serve as an SP2 in tournaments with his random ceiling. Either way you go, be sure to also check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in today!
Early slates
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
We’ll kick things off with the Marlins and Mets, with Cabrera and Megill to get the start. A 7.5 total, this game is on the lower end today, though at least not THE lowest. There looks to be a few spots to grab some action, though I’m not sure I would set my entire focus here.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Chisholm/Soler
GPP note – Not a great spot by any means, but Megill does allow a little more xwOBA than his other stats would indicate, so you can grab some one-offs or mini-stacks here and have a somewhat viable pivot option.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Marte/Alonso, Nimmo
GPP note – Cabrera had some big reverse splits working against him last season, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to try some righties here in case that continues.
Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs
Next up we have the Rangers and Cubs, with Eovaldi and Stroman on the mound. We get a 7.0 total here, which is tied with a few other games as the lowest on the slate. However, with that Eovaldi pitching, there’s always a chance that his opponent will go the over all by themselves (yes, he’s burned me plenty of times in the past, and I won’t let it go).
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager/Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe/Garcia
GPP note – Stroman has been stingy, but these bats do hit for some power against righties. It would make for a solid hedge spot (hand matchup seems to be a wash here, so any bat with power is an option).
Cubs 4 star plays – Bellinger/Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Mancini/Hosmer
GPP note – Eovaldi has been decent to start the year, but one of his gigantic implosions is always lurking around every one of his starts. I’d be sure to grab some large stacks here, because when he has one of his duds, it’s extra spicy.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
We head to Camden Yards for our next bout, this one between the Yankees and Orioles. Schmidt and Kremer will be our starters, but how long we’ll see them is anybody’s guess. Vegas is giving us an 8.5 total, but I would not be the least bit surprised to see this one reach double-digits.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton/Rizzo
GPP note – It’s Baltimore pitching, so it’s business as usual here. Stack big and hope for a home run derby.
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mountcastle, Santander/Rutschman
GPP note – Schmidt has been bumpy, and this team sure likes to spoil some wins that the Yankees would like to collect here, so they’re plenty viable as a pivot option today. He allows plenty of power to both sides, so any hand is fine.
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Greene and the Reds take on Wheeler and the Phillies next, this game with another 7.0 total. With these two at the helm, I could see this one hitting the under without too much trouble, which means these bats might not be quite our fancy today.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Fraley
GPP note – This is a bad matchup, so only go here if you’re feeling a bit contrarian today.
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner/Schwarber
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Castellanos/Realmuto
GPP note – This isn’t a great matchup either, as Greene can rack up the strikeouts while these guys can rack up some of their own. It could be a good hedge spot though, as he does throw hard and allows some power to lefties.
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
We’ll head west for our next game, this one between the Astros and Twins. Urquidy and Gray will get the start here, and with them, another 7.5 total. With how these two have looked this year, I could see one of these sub-4.0 implied total teams blowing up, so perhaps they would be worth investigating.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman/Pena, Abreu
GPP note – Gray can be tough at times, but he hasn’t exactly been dominant thus far, so I feel like this implied total is a little low. Hopefully that keeps their ownership down some!
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Gallo/Miranda
GPP note – Kind of the same as above, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to attack Urquidy here as he’s still finding his groove. While he does allow more to lefties, he has allowed some power to righties, so you can get creative here in your pivots.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians
Another 7.0 total, our next game will be between the Mariners and Guardians. Gilbert and Civale will be our starters here, and I think they have a much better chance of holding down the fort than those in our previous game. A few bats might still be worth grabbing, but if I’m going to stack a game with a lower implied total, it wouldn’t be this one.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez, Raleigh
GPP note – Civale looks to be in decent form but does allow some power to lefties, so don’t be afraid to run some one-offs or mini-stacks against him.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Ramirez/Bell, Naylor
GPP note – Same as above but without the power bonus. The core bats of this team are certainly in play, but I don’t feel great about the other ones.
Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll head back east for our next matchup, this one between the White Sox and Pirates. Giolito and Hill will get the start here, and a refreshing 8.5 total greets us. I think that’s going to mostly depend on which Giolito shows up, as the Chicago offense should have a decent chance of doing some damage against Hill. Sounds like a game built for tournaments!
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Vaughn/Moncada
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go against Hill, as he doesn’t allow a ton of power to lefties. There’s plenty of pop here from all the righties, so stacks of any size are in play.
Pirates 4 star plays – Cruz/McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana/Reynolds
GPP note – I think this matchup is a bit tougher than the implied total Vegas is giving this squad, so if you do go here, be sure you’re hedging. Otherwise, consider some righties since Giolito does allow some occasional power to righties.
Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants
Keller and my Royals will take on Cobb and the Giants next, and we get a modest 8.0 total for this matchup. Like the previous game, I think that’s going to depend a lot on how the visiting starter looks, as the home team will probably be the one to make or break the scoring.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Melendez
GPP note – Overall this isn’t a very tasty matchup for KC or us, so be careful. Some small stacks might be okay, but probably not much else.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski/Pederson/Conforto
GPP note – Keller is really good at being really random, so I like this as a hedge spot in the event he implodes or tosses a gem. Lefties have the power advantage against him.
Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Athletics and Rays, which will feature Waldichuk and Eflin as the starting pitchers. I’m actually surprised that the Rays don’t have a higher total here, as I’m pretty confident that they’ll see over the ~4.5 total that they have.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown/Kemp, Aguilar
GPP note – Not a great matchup, though Eflin has his days where he allows some good contact and power to lefties. Nobody will be on these guys, so you can have some one-offs or mini-stacks all to yourself (though I would not get carried away).
Rays 5 star plays – Franco/Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz and everybody else
GPP note – Waldichuk has a knack for allowing homers in drovers, which is all the more reason to stack big here. Everybody else will be looking their way too, so consider some wrap-around stacks or similar.
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s 📊 DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Main slate
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
We’ll switch gears and move on to the main slate, starting with the Padres and Braves. Our first game will see Martinez and Shuster getting the start, and they’ll get a 9.0 total. The game with the lowest total on this slate (which is the next one) matches that of the highest game of the early slates, so expect some fireworks in these games.
Padres 5 star plays – Machado/Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Cruz
GPP note – It’s hard to know what we’ll get with Shuster, so I’d treat this as a bullpen game. The typical bats are in play as always, but don’t be afraid to test the waters in the bottom of the order.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Riley/d’Arnaud
GPP note – Basically the same as above, but overall, these bats have the edge in power. Be sure to grab some less-obvious bats as the core will be popular.
St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Flaherty and the Cardinals will take on Woodruff and the Brewers next, and we get a slate-low 8.0 total here. I think that’s mostly reasonable, but if Flaherty can show up and have a good performance, we’ll very likely see the under here. It might be a good game to grab a handful of bats and move on, rather than stacking to the moon.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
GPP note – Tough matchup, so aside from the obvious pivots, I’d be careful.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Winker, Adames/Tellez
GPP note – Flaherty is still a bit up and down, so taking some bats against him is still a viable option. He’s been allowing a little more contact and power to righties, so don’t be afraid to go RvR.
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
Next up is our Coors game, which will see Gore and the Nationals take on Urena and the Rockies. They dropped an absolute turd of a game yesterday, in which all of one run was scored from 15 hits. How that happens…well, I have no idea. Hopefully they’ll do a little more this time!
Nationals 4 star plays – Meneses
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Garcia/Candelario
GPP note – Urena has had a tough 2023 so far and having to pitch at Coors probably won’t help that any. It’s a great spot for these bats to bounce back a little after that dud they dropped yesterday.
Rockies 5 star plays – Bryant/Cron
Rockies 4 star plays – Profar
GPP note – They did at least win yesterday, but doing it with one run isn’t quite what most were expecting. It’s a good bounce back spot for these guys too, especially the righties.
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our late games, starting with the Blue Jays and Angels. Bassitt and Sandoval get the start here, and they’ll get a 9.0 total. There are plenty of high-octane bats to go around, so it’s really going to depend on how these pitching staffs can navigate the lineups. You can always grab a few studs and go elsewhere, but should one of these pitchers (or perhaps both) implode, you’ll wish you had some of the cheaper ones, too.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Bichette, Merrifield
GPP note – Righties have the advantage here in both matchup and recent power, so it’s a good thing there are a ton of them to choose from.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 3.5 star plays – Ward/Renfroe
GPP note – The Angels get quite a bit better matchup than what Vegas would lead you to believe, so don’t be afraid to stack more than just the two studs here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Kershaw and Bumgarner will square off, a matchup as old as time itself, it would seem. Jokes aside, this looks like a great spot for the Dodgers, and their implied total nearly matches that of the Rockies over at Coors. While it is a pivot away from that chalky game, it’s going to be chalky in itself, so you’ll have to get creative with the rest of your lineup should you go here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez
GPP note – This is a good spot for these guys to tee off on Bumgarner, though that big implied total will attract plenty of ownership. Combat that by taking some cheaper bats deeper in the order.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Gurriel/Walker/Lewis
GPP note – Kershaw looks to be in rock solid form and these bats aren’t the most threatening. You could always try some contrarian lineups, but I think they’ll see the under.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.