Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Thursday, which usually means we get a short slate, and this is one of those days. Fortunately we do have some interesting games to work with, so it’ll at least be an interesting day of fantasy baseball. At any rate, there’s plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
It would be too easy for both sites to have the same number of games on their main slates, so things are a little goofy here today. On FanDuel they have the first four games on theirs, but DraftKings will have all six games and every pitcher available to use on their slate. That’s a long time to watch for starting lineups and scratched pitchers, so be aware of that heading in.
Aside from that, there are some interesting arms on the slate. Gausman will probably be the go-to option for cash games, and even though there are a limited number of games today, we have five pitchers with strong KSCOREs. That alone should keep tournaments interesting, especially for those SP2s on DraftKings. As always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main slate
Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with the Red Sox and Tigers, with Sale and Turnbull on the hill. I long for the day when the dominant Sale returns, and who knows, maybe this Detroit offense will be the catalyst for his return. As for Turnbull, he’s not looking all that great either, but does occasionally ramp things up against other AL teams (though he’s probably saving that for when he faces my Royals).
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Verdugo/Duvall, Turner
GPP note – It’s mostly business as usual here, but do keep in mind that Turnbull allows about the same contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can roll with some big righties here to help with ownership.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez
GPP note – Yeah, it’s the Tigers, so it’s hard to get too excited. However, Sale is far from his former dominant self, and it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world to attack him some as he’s trying to get back to form. I don’t think that huge stacks are the answer, but some one-offs or mini-stacks could pay off.
San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox
Next up we have the Giants and White Sox, with Wood and Lynn to get the start. We get an 8.0 total here, which is the same as three of the other games today as well. My gut tells me to lean towards the under on this one, as both pitchers look steady coming in and I think they can navigate a good chunk of innings without giving up a whole lot. We’ll see how that goes, but I do feel like the hottest bats of the slate will come from a different ballgame.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Yastrzemski/Pederson
GPP note – This team seems to be rather boom-or-bust as it is, but I think they’ll lean more towards “bust” here as they face decent pitching. There is some power upside with the bats, but Lynn has been strict, so be careful with how hard you go contrarian with these guys.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson/Robert
GPP note – This isn’t a fantastic matchup either, so for the most part I think the approach will be about the same. However, there are a few more bats with some extra pop here, so maybe slightly larger mini-stacks could be used.
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
Gausman and the Blue Jays will take on Lyles and the Royals next, complete with an 8.0 total. As I mentioned earlier, Gausman will likely be the go-to cash game option, as he has a good matchup here against my poor Royals. Lyles is off to a “meh” start, so I don’t know that he’s going to really put the brakes on this Toronto offense.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Varsho/Bichette
GPP note – Lyles isn’t striking out batters in droves and allows power to both sides of the plate, so either hand is in play here. Anything from one-offs to full blown stacks should be considered (if they look to be extra chalky, try some wrap-around stacks or other shenanigans to lessen the blow).
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez
GPP note – Nothing to love here unless you love going contrarian.
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
Next up we have our Coors game, featuring Gray and the Nationals set to take on Freeland and the Rockies. Coors games are usually chalky by default, but a Coors game on a short slate can really crank up the ownership numbers.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas/Meneses
GPP note – This isn’t exactly an all-star roster, but playing at Coors can make up for some of that. There are a lot of cheap bats here, so you can use them to grab pretty much anybody else you want.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon/Bryant
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron
GPP note – You know the drill with these guys by now. While there are fewer cheap bats here, there are still some to help with ownership issues, as the top of the order is bound to be extra chalky.
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s 📊 DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Late games
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
Our first late game will see Snell and the Padres take on Strider and the Braves. The 7.5 total for this game is the lowest on the day, so it seems that Vegas slightly favors the pitching here over all these big bats.
Padres 4 star plays – Soto/Machado
Padres 3.5 star plays – Bogaerts/Grisham
GPP note – Seeing such a low total for this team is pretty wild, but Strider has been one tough cookie. This could be an excellent place to hedge, especially in the event that Strider gets a bad start and makes an early exit.
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna
Braves 3.5 star plays – Olson/Riley/d’Arnaud
GPP note – Basically the same as above. Get your hedge game on here, as there are plenty of high-ceiling targets to choose from that should come with less ownership than usual.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
And finally, we’ll wrap things up with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. May and Kelly will get the start here, and with them, a decent 8.5 total. This will be a matchup of last Friday’s game, where the Diamondbacks squeaked by with an upset 2-to-1 victory. I like a good upset, so we’ll see if they can do it again!
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy/Martinez
GPP note – These bats make a lot of noise when they start to roll, so be sure to stack them big when you use them. They’ll be a common pivot to Coors, so finding some lower-owned pivots will be important (perhaps the bottom of this lineup could help with that).
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Gurriel, Walker/Marte
GPP note – May held his own against these guys last week, but only walked away with four strikeouts in seven innings pitched. That translates to plenty of contact being made, so these bats are in play as a contrarian stacking option.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.