Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/5:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shane McClanahan
- Jesus Luzardo
- Dylan Cease
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Minnesota Twins @ Miami Marlins (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. I am really interested in this game from a pitching standpoint. Both SPs came out in their first starts and got it done. Luzardo had some control issues but was still pretty strong against the Mets. He did struggle more at home in 2022 but with the design of this park, I would expect that to change going forward. I don’t plan on stacking either side at this point.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Solano is 4 for 7 against Luzardo in his career.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Lopez had an ERA of 4.55 at home last year (in Miami).
Tampa Bay Rays (-250) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Let’s be real, McClanahan still isn’t priced correctly on DK. I expect him to dominate in this spot and it’s not just because Washington is weak. He has strong K upside with an extreme ground-ball pitchers skillset. Corbin is one of the worst SPs in baseball at this point so we probably want to be on the TB train yet again. When teams are hot, we just ride them until a match-up makes us question it.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: 10 HRs hit in 5 games so far.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas
GPP Note: McClanahan allowed an average against of just .167 on the road in 2022.
Atlanta Braves @ St Louis Cardinals ()
Pitchers:
Braves – Bryce Elder
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Rosario and Ozuna are a combined 7 for 12 with 3 HRs against Mikolas.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Gorman is a cool 6 for 12 with 2 HRs and 5 BBs so far this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-178) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Royals – Zack Grienke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Stand alone game during the evening, I would think that stacking Blue Jays is going to be popular in the showdown. A couple of the TOR bats have hit Greinke really hard while KC hasn’t seen Manoah enough but they also haven’t performed overly well. Matt Chapman is rolling at the plate right now and it’s only a matter of time before the doubles turn into HRs.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Springer is 7 for 13 with an HR against Greinke.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: 11 of the 16 HRs allowed by Manoah in 2022 were hit by LHBs.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (-190)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Rangers – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am going to have to think through this pitching match-up a little more than just a first look. Grayson is one of, if not the top SP prospect in all of baseball but he was horrendous this spring and his AAA opening start was pretty rough too. He’s basically free on DK but do we just accept that and play him or do we think he struggles in his debut? When’s the last time we saw deGrom suck it up in back to back starts? I lean towards he comes out and shoves it down BAL’s throat but I am concerned some.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: RHBs went 5 for 8 with 5 extra-base hits in deGrom’s first start.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 at home in 2022.
Chicago Cubs (EVEN) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Reds – Hunter Greene
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I was shocked to see a total sitting at just 8 in this ballpark. It does make me wonder about potential weather but I also noticed that it’s an early as hell start time. Stroman was dominant to open the season but I kind of think that CIN gets him for a few runs. Greene is somebody that I always have exposure to thanks to his ridiculous K upside but he gives up plenty of HRs and certainly could today.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Bellinger and Happ are a combined 5 for 8 with 2 HRs against Greene.
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jason Vosler, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: 10 HRs through 5 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago White Sox (-135)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Webb allowed an OPS of nearly .200 points higher to LHBs than RHBs in 2022. I could see the White Sox trying to slide an extra LHB or two into the starting lineup. Cease and my guy McClanahan are going to battle for some Cy Youngs over the next few years and it’s going to be a lot of fun to watch. The Giants just let all the power fly against Kopech on Monday but I don’t see that same outcome against Cease.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Lamont Wade
GPP Note: 9 HRs through the first 4 games.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 to begin the season.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers (-135)
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Peterson is a guy who I always want to use but then seem to chicken out some the nights he dominates. I am a little gun shy after watching Milwaukee pound Scherzer in the 6th inning. I think Peterson is a dark horse GPP play but probably a 10% kind of play. Burnes hurt my soul in his first start and I swore that I wasn’t going to be using him until he showed me his control and K stuff were back. Well, I kind of want to be on him in this spot with how the Mets have looked at the plate.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Nimmo and McNeil are a combined 10 for 25 with 4 extra-base hits against Burnes.
MIL 5-star plays: Brian Anderson
4-star plays: Willy Adames
GPP Note: Anderson has 10 RBI through the first 5 games.
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Los Angeles Angels (-155) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Flexen’s first appearance of 2023 came in relief of Ray and now he slides into his rotation spot. He’s not a big time K guy so that is concerning as the Angels top half can most definitely get it done. Ohtani has thrown the ball extremely well against this SEA roster and he should carry a chunk of ownership via name value alone. I just wish the sites could figure out how to allow us access to Ohtani as a hitter and a pitcher on the same slate.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Jake Lamb, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 to begin the season.
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 to start 2023.
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros (-267)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The obvious in this spot is Javier getting to face off with the DET lineup. The under the radar is Rodriguez having decent upside against a struggling lineup (overall lineup). I think the top part of the HOU lineup is a great stack option on this slate but I can also believe that Rodriguez is sneaky for larger field GPPs. Javier wasn’t overly sharp in his first start but I would expect a little bounce back as he was absolutely dominant in 2022.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .074 so far.
Cleveland Guardians (-130) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Guardians – Hunter Gaddis
A’s – Kyle Muller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Generally this ballpark plays smaller during the day but neither team is loaded with power, by any means. Gaddis can give up HRs so I think I am going to keep some OAK bats in my player pool, as one-offs. Muller was very solid in his season debut, on opening day, so maybe there’s some ability in there to contain the Guardians offense. I would definitely rather stack CLE but I might keep them as one-offs or mini-stack options in my builds.
CLE 5-star plays: Andres Gimenez
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs so far.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox (-145)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Red Sox – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. It’s definitely very cold in Boston for this one so similar to yesterday, I think the pitching is very much in play despite a total sitting at 9. I can’t believe I am going to be overweight on Mitch Keller but here we are. We could still see some runs at Fenway as we have already this season when the weather is rough but I just think this one rivals yesterday’s game a bit as far as runs go.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Reynolds has an OPS of 1.502 to begin the season.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Keller has given up more HRs to RHBs than LHBs in his career.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees (-160)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Looks like I get to go right back to the Nola fade train. I know aces generally bounce back after rough outings but I still believe that Nola has a rough season after pitching into November last year. The big question for me is what do we do with Cole against this PHI lineup? Right now I think we just play him and probably end up overweight but it’ll be interesting to see where I end up with my Domination Station runs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Realmuto is 11 for 17 with an HR against Cole.
5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: The Yankees roster has 6 HRs in 80 PAs against Nola.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Tampa Bay Rays
- St Louis Cardinals
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Randy Arozarena, Rays
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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