Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/4:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Framber Valdez
- Julio Urias
- Max Scherzer
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Minnesota Twins @ Miami Marlins (-140)
Pitchers:
Mets – Kenta Maeda
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. Maeda had some control issues this spring, which gives me some concern as he’s returning from tommy-john. Overall it’s not a terrible match-up for him but MIA does have some patient hitters that can take advantage of his lack of control early on. Alcantara was decent but not sharp during his first start. The Twins are averaging 5.5 runs per game right now but they are mainly being carried by Larnach and Gallo offensively.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Gallo is 3 for 8 with a 3B and a 2B against Alcantara.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Arraez is just 11 for 21 to begin the season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-190) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Rays – Josh Fleming
Nationals – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Fleming is stretched out enough to be a 5-ish inning guy but he wasn’t all that strong this spring. He gets a bump due to match-up but that might not be enough for me today. The Rays offense has been swinging it to begin the season and Kuhl is a guy that they should be able to stay hot against. Wander has started the year out rolling, Josh Lowe is showing his talent, and Arozarena looks great out of the gate.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe
GPP Note: Wander has 4 extra-base hits and 2 stolen bases through 4 games.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keibert Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .074 to begin the season.
Atlanta Braves @ St Louis Cardinals (-140)
Pitchers:
Braves – Dylan Dodd
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Braves are rolling out another rookie SP, making his MLB debut. Shuster didn’t do so well in his debut and that might push people to attack Dodd. Dodd showcased better K stuff than Shuster did this spring while walking fewer hitters. I don’t think I can be on Dodd as I do like a handful of the STL bats against LHPs. Matz actually looked really good this spring and finished his spring with a Quality start but can we really use an SP against this ATL offense?
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 to begin the season (7 HRs).
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Goldschmidt has a career OPS of 1.048 against LHPs.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-170) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. There is some potential rain but it looks like the main thing is that there is strong winds blowing out. I am pretty happy the wind is beneficial for hitters as I am not sure I could force myself to go with Kikuchi after the strong spring he had. My dinger of the day call probably comes from this game. Toronto has just 1 HR coming into today, which is shocking considering the HR numbers are up across baseball right now.
TOR 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: Chapman is 8 for 15 with 4 2Bs to begin the 2023 season.
KC 5-star plays: Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Matt Duffy
GPP Note: Dozier is 3 for 6 with an HR against Kikuchi.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (-130)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Undecided
Rangers – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Orioles were originally going to go with Tyler Wells tonight but he ended up having to throw 5 innings last night as Bradish left with an injury. Heaney grades out decently in this match-up but he was pretty bad this spring and the Orioles have started the season out pretty damn hot. Probably an avoid pitchers spot while we look to stack both sides, pending the BAL starter.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .255 to begin the season.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 at home in 2022.
Chicago Cubs (-125) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cubs – Hayden Wesneski
Reds – Luis Cessa
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am really intrigued by Wesneski in this spot. I know the total is up there as the ballpark is built for offense but he was dominant this spring. He was great last season, across his 4 starts. Cessa gave up 9 HRs in 37 home innings last season. He gave up 8 runs and 3 HRs in 14 innings against the Cubs. Swanson just keeps hitting for the Cubs while Happ is always in play for us.
CHC 5-star plays: Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Swanson is 10 for 17 to begin the season.
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Steer, Jason Vosler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 to begin the season.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-267)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. This is a game that I think we want pieces of from all angles. I think both SPs are actually in play while Urias should be fairly popular. I like the idea of mini-stacking COL with a few of the guys that have hit Urias in the past. The Dodgers are interesting because they have a team ISO of .253 so far in 2023. Outman continues to impress every time he’s in the lineup.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Bryant and Cron are a combined 17 for 53 with 6 extra-base hits against Urias.
LAD 5-star plays: James Outman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, David Peralta
GPP Note: Outman is 4 for 12 with 3 BB and 3 extra-base hits to begin 2023.
New York Mets (-165) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Brewers – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am always going to be on the Scherzer train but it does worry me some with how the MIL bats have been. Overall, I don’t think the MIL lineup is as dangerous as it has been in year’s past but there’s some upside in it. I think this is a spot for the Mets bats to wake up a bit. Miley made just 3 spring appearances so he’s probably not the sharpest at the moment and a few of the Mets have hit him well in their careers.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .107 so far this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang
GPP Note: Yelich is 10 for 34 with 3 HRs against Scherzer.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners (-175)
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Mariners should put some runs up against Suarez but I wonder if we don’t see the Angels lineup get to Castillo a little bit. I know it’s walking a thin line with how strong of a pitcher he is but I would not be shocked to see this game end up 6-4. I will go out on a limb and say that there will be multiple HRs hit in this game, despite being in a ballpark that is tough for HRs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: The Angels roster has 6 HRs in 61 PAs against Castillo.
5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: The 3 above are 10 for 26 against Suarez.
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros (-292)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matt Manning
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Manning was pretty bad away from home last year but overall, he had a decent stint with the Tigers in 2022. This doesn’t feel like a great spot for him so I am all about the HOU side. Valdez is going to be the chalkiest SP on the slate but I don’t care, he’s just so damn good. I want to believe that the HOU bats will wake up but we might just have to mini-stack them until the bottom half comes alive.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .112 against LHPs in 2022.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .071 so far.
Cleveland Guardians (-205) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
A’s – JP Sears
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here, Oakland isn’t going to go off like they did last night very often and they definitely aren’t going to do it against Bieber. With that being said, Bieber is on my list of potential fades/underweight options on this slate. The ballpark suppresses strikeouts and he came out with minimal Ks in his season debut. I may be viewed as an idiot after a fade-like stance but we have to make decisions and I think the other spend-ups offer higher ceilings for me tonight.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against LHPs so far.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Ruiz has yet to steal a base (trendy bet to lead baseball in steals).
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox (-140)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Roansy Contreras
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Pivetta struggled in April of 2022 for BOS and now he pitches in a game with a 9 total, despite the weather being cold. The wind is blowing in at Fenway but we saw that not matter the other day as this park just loves runs. I haven’t looked at any projections for this game but I have a feeling I am going to go underweight on the stacks in hopes that the weather finally halts some runs from denting the score board.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Pivetta allowed 15 HRs at Fenway in 2022.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .243 to begin the 2023 season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees (-150)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Matt Strahm
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Strahm is still being stretched out but he should be able to throw around 60 pitches in this spot. The issue for PHI is that their bullpen still has some question marks. German struggled to end the spring and actually had his start pushed back so I am guessing we don’t see some elite performance out of him either. This is really setting up to be an offensive game from both sides. German allowed 4 HRs in 10.1 innings this spring.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team OPS of .772 despite having just 1 HR so far.
5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 at home in 2022.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (-145)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I know we get a couple of very good SPs on the mound in this one but I can’t help but think the total is just too low. Both teams have some decent BvP spots and there are routes to putting up runs (ARI should be able to steal a couple of bags). San Diego has been solid and that’s without Machado or Cronenworth doing much to begin the season. Gallen is always one of my guys so I will have exposure but it will be very limited.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Base stealers were 14 for 16 against Darvish in 2022.
SD 5-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 to begin the season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – Matt Chapman, Blue Jays
Apr 3, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman (26) doubles during the fifth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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