Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/2:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jeffrey Springs
- Jared Shuster
- Graham Ashcraft
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New York Mets (-120) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Kodai Senga
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. The strikeouts were there for Rogers in the spring but he wasn’t sharp, at all. He has had success against the Mets so that’s something to keep in mind. Similar story for Senga in that his K’s were there but he wasn’t the best during ST. There is always an adjustment period for pitchers from Japan as the baseball used here is larger and the mound slope is different. Could be another spot where some MIA bats make a ton of sense.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Mets roster has 25 Ks in 85 PAs against Rogers.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Arraez is 7 for 12 to start his MIA career.
Atlanta Braves (-190) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Jared Shuster
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Gore allowed plenty of baserunners this spring and this ATL offense is not a team that you want to allow to hit with men on base. While I prefer ATL against RHPs, they have a few guys that can absolutely smash LHPs. Shuster allowed just 9 hits in his 20.2 spring innings of work. He picked up 19 Ks so he’s definitely capable while he’s making his regular season debut!
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs last season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Robles
GPP Note: Washington has struck out 16 times so far.
Toronto Blue Jays (EVEN) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am torn on this one as I am a fan of both pitchers but neither seems to line up well against the opposing lineup. Bassitt has always flashed the ability to be an ace but I like the way that STL is swinging it. Toronto has seen Montgomery plenty so the advantage is definitely on their side. I am really curious to see what the weather is like in the morning as I do think we see some runs.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Bichette is 6 for 11 with 2 HR and 2 2B against Montgomery.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brendan Donovan, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team OPS of 1.008 through 2 games.
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Minnesota Twins (-155) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Twins offense really hasn’t treated us well to begin the season but they get another shot. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Correa or Buxton get an off day right away, which is annoying but it happens. Ryan was great against KC last year and I think he lines up to be extremely strong in this spot. At some point the top part of the KC lineup is going to do some damage.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach
GPP Note: Kepler has struggled to begin the season but he’s 7 for 19 with 2 HR against Keller.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against MIN in 2022.
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Philadelphia Phillies (-120) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This series has provided plenty of action/runs to this point and I honestly do not see that changing on Sunday. Perez is somebody I have stacked against a TON over the years and I think it’s about time he pays up for all of the times he was solid and not horrible. The Texas lineup exploded on Saturday so I am very interested in seeing what lineup they trot out there as they have 5 HRs through 2 games.
PHI 5-star plays: Alec Bohm
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Bohm is 7 for 13 with an HR against Perez.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 at home in 2022.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-135)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Vince Velasquez
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Ashcraft was dominant all spring, racking up 25 Ks in just 17.1 innings of work, across 5 starts. He actually picked up a quality start in the spring, which isn’t something that happens very often. He has looked the part and he gets a pretty weak lineup. Velasquez is just a journeyman arm at this point so while the Reds lineup is pretty weak overall, I might end up back on them again.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: O’Neil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 on the road last season.
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson
GPP Note: 8 of the 11 HRs allowed by Velasquez in 2022 were hit by RHBs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Dodgers – Noah Syndergaard
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I really like the potential offense in this spot as Arizona should dominate on the basepaths while the Dodgers offer us plenty of power upside against Davies. Thompson just hit 3 HRs on Saturday and now gets a match-up in which he has dominated. The word is that Betts is going to play 2B on Sunday so we could see Thompson AND Outman together in the OF. Corbin Carroll feels like an absolute lock to steal a base.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Syndergaard allowed 30 SBs in 2022.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Will Smith, Trayce Thompson
GPP Note: Thompson has 2 HRs in 9 PAs against Davies.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (-125)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Happ went deep on Saturday while Swanson just keeps hitting out of the 2-spot. There are a couple of other Cubs bats that could intrigue me a bit but I want to see what lineup they role with. The total being at 9 makes me believe we are going to see plus weather in Chicago, finally. I am really interested in seeing how Taillon performs in the NL Central this season. Milwaukee has a couple of plus BvP spots but the lineup hasn’t looked all too strong.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Yelich is 7 for 17 with an HR against Taillon.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Taillon struck out 23 in 18.1 spring innings. He did allow 4 HRs which can be concerning but that was in ARI and not in Chicago.
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Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. My initial thought is that this game doesn’t need to be stacked but I do like a couple of guys as one-offs and mini-stacks. Quantrill is definitely the better pitcher in my eyes but Gonzales is decent at home. I think that Julio-France is one of the best mini-stacks going to begin the season. Julio has an HR in his career against Quantrill while France is swinging it well to begin the season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Gonzales allowed 30 HRs last season (15 at home).
5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Ty France
GPP Note: The top 3 in the lineup have 9 of the team’s 17 hits so far.
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-240)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Joey Wentz
Rays – Jeffrey Springs
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I expect Springs to be one of the chalkiest SPs on the slate as Detroit continues to get man-handled by TB pitching. Springs was fairly dominant against RHBs in 2022 so that makes this spot even better for him. Wentz was actually somewhat decent for DET last season but this isn’t a great spot for him. I actually like what some of TB’s RHBs can do against LHPs. Yandy Diaz just keeps hitting the ball hard and he’s going to be one of my main plays.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javier Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .112 against LHPs in 2022.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco
4-star plays: Christian Bethancourt
GPP Note: 9 of the 18 hits allowed by Wentz to RHBs in 2022 went for extra bases.
Los Angeles Angels (-165) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Tyler Anderson
A’s – Ken Waldichuk
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Anderson isn’t going to rack up Ks but he was great for the Dodgers last season and he continues that this spring for the Angels. He doesn’t allow many SBs so I find it really tough for OAK to do much for us. Waldichuk flashed some upside last year but he was downright abysmal this spring. He allowed 16 runs on 19 hits and 12 walks across his 13.2 innings of work. Those kind of numbers certainly bode well for the Angels’ upside on Sunday.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against OAK in 2022.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: I have no desire to play any OAK bats, maybe ever at this point.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-140)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Cole Irvin
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We have been treated to two big time scoring games at Fenway to begin the season so I am just going to plan on a third. Irvin has been allowing too much contact and he struggled away from Oakland last year. Houck gave up 9 HRs, 27 hits, and 12 walks this spring (but did strike out 25 in 20.1 innings). He CERTAINLY wasn’t sharp and that’s not a great thing to see for BOS against this hot BAL lineup. Base stealers are 12 for 13 against Houck in his MLB career.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Baltimore has 10 SBs through 2 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Adam Duvall
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Irvin had an ERA of 5.26 and an average against of .290 on the road last season.
San Francisco Giants @ New York Yankees (-145)
Pitchers:
Giants – Ross Stripling
Yankees – Jhony Brito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Brito was pretty impressive this spring and the injuries within the Yankees rotation afforded him a chance to start the season at the MLB level. He’s done a pretty decent job of keeping the ball in the yard at the minor league level while flashing some K upside at times. Stripling allowed 13 baserunners in 7.2 innings against the Yankees last season (2 starts).
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: The Giants have struck out 29 times through 2 games.
5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 at home in 2022.
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros (-178)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Clevinger allowed 12 runs on 17 hits (5 HRs) over his 4 starts this spring. He had a bunch of off field stuff going on so I have to believe he’s not quite ready for his first start. I like the way that the top of the Houston lineup matches up with Clevinger. Garcia feels like a very interesting GPP option for us but the White Sox lineup has a few guys who have had success against him. Garcia did allow 16 HRs in 84.2 home innings last season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against RHPs in 2022.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Pena and Alvarez are a combined 9 for 22 to begin the season.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-225)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Padres – Seth Lugo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am not sure what to expect out of Lugo has he has transitioned back into a starting option. He was solid as a bullpen piece for the Mets but he started 6 games this spring, going 23.1 innings. He allowed 26 hits and his K numbers weren’t great but he might be a decent dart option. Gomber dominated against SD in 2022 as he threw 9.1 innings, allowing just 1 run and striking out 7. He was strong against them in 2021 as well, striking out 20 in 20.1 innings and allowing just 5 earned runs.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .592 against Lugo.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Kim is 5 for 9 with 5 2Bs against Gomber.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Baltimore Orioles
- Atlanta Braves
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
Mar 30, 2023; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) and right fielder George Springer (4) celebrate after they scored against the St. Louis Cardinals during the eighth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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