Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Thursday, so you know what that means; short slate day! We get two early games followed by a 5-game main slate, so if fewer games tickle your fancy more than the larger slates, this is the day for you. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We only have four pitchers for our early games, and at first glance they profile quite similarly. You could opt to just save the salary here, or perhaps dig in a bit to decide if the more expensive arms would be worth paying up for. For the main slate, Strahm looks like a good mid-ranged option, though the question might be who to pair with him on DK (or if he can rack up enough strikeouts to come through on FD – I think he can). As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
We’ll kick things off with our early games, starting with the Twins and Red Sox. Maeda and Houck will get the start here, and along with them comes a 9.0 total. Vegas has this game split quite evenly, with just a slight nod to the home team. I think that’s fair, so we’ll see which of our starters takes control of the early and mid game.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Correa/Buxton
Twins 3.5 star plays – Gallo
GPP note – There is both strikeout and power upside on both sides of this matchup, making it a good spot to hedge. You could even consider taking Houck and a bat or two from here in the same lineup, as a strong showing by him with just a solo homer or two given up could result in some lower-owned fantasy goodness to win this small slate.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Turner/Yoshida
GPP note – Maeda is allowing about equal contact to both sides, but much more power to the righties he’s faced.
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Our second and final early game will be between the Angels and Yankees. Sandoval and Cortes will be our starters, and Vegas is giving this one an 8.5 total. The Yanks will be looking to win another series, while the Angels will be looking to upset how Vegas sees this one playing out. Who will win? Well, hopefully us!
Angels 4.5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Renfroe/Rendon, O’Hoppe
GPP note – Cortes is allowing plenty of contact and power to righties, and there are plenty of them here to choose from. He has his strikeout upside as well, so consider what I said about the Twins here, too.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Torres, Rizzo
GPP note – I don’t see Sandoval shutting these bats down in dominant fashion, but they also haven’t been hitting lefties as well as you would expect. You can eat the chalk and go here or consider pivoting elsewhere and hope they just hit some little bloopers here and there.
Main slate
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll switch over to the main slate next, starting with the Reds and Pirates. We have Weaver and Contreras starting, and they will begin the day with a 9.0 total. Vegas isn’t giving Weaver much love in his return, so we’ll see if he can disappoint them.
Reds 4 star plays – Friedl
Reds 3.5 star plays – India
GPP note – Contreras has been allowing some contact but very little power in 2023 – he still has yet to give up a home run this season. Medium-sized stacks might be the best bet, hoping they spam doubles and RBIs against him.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana, Hayes
GPP note – Weaver hasn’t pitched in a month and a half and has two allowed homers in his previous four innings to show for it. It might not be a bad idea to attack him and hope he has some cobwebs to dust off.
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we have the Rockies and Phillies, with Feltner and Strahm on the mound. A 9.5 total, this one leans pretty heavily to the home team, though I suppose that shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. The Phillies currently have the highest total on the board, so they’ll certainly be popular on this small slate. If you go here, you’ll want to find ways to get creative elsewhere.
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Cron, Blackmon
GPP note – Strahm allows some power to righties, but overall, this isn’t a very good matchup.
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber/Turner
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Castellanos/Realmuto, Marsh
GPP note – Feltner allows plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can go after him however you’d like.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Moving on, we next have the Dodgers and Cubs with Grove and Taillon to get the start. This game sports the highest total on the day at 11.0 and is split mostly evenly down the middle. It’s a bit of a rare sight to see the Dodgers being the underdog, so we’ll see how they respond to that.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy/Outman, Martinez
GPP note – Taillon allows some decent contact and power to lefties, so I would focus on traditional splits here with a few righties sprinkled in for ownership purposes.
Cubs 5 star plays – Happ
Cubs 4 star plays – Bellinger/Suzuki/Wisdom
GPP note – More or less the same as above.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Wacha and the Padres will face Nelson and the Diamondbacks, and we’ll start out with a 9.5 total for them. Wacha certainly isn’t the reason that San Diego is favored here, as he’s had quite the rocky 2023 campaign thus far. I’m sure he will bounce back eventually, but I don’t know if it’s going to be today.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto, Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Cruz
GPP note – Nelson is good for a few strikeouts but does allow moderate contact and power to lefties, but don’t neglect the righties as they may find more success in the later innings.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Rojas/Marte
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Smith
GPP note – Wacha’s up-and-down season continues, so take some shots against him while the getting is still good.
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap up this short day with the Mets and Giants, with Senga and Manaea on the hill. We drop down to an 8.5 total here, with this being another game that’s pretty close in Vegas’ eyes. I have my money on the Mets, so hopefully I don’t jinx them.
Mets 5 star plays – Alonso/Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Pham/Canha
GPP note – Another spot for the traditional splits bats, something to consider is that Manaea is allowing a lot of xwOBA to lefties, so taking some of them might not be a bad idea.
Giants 4 star plays – Conforto/Yastrzemski
Giants 3.5 star plays – Estrada/Davis
GPP note – While it’s not the best matchup for these guys, Senga does allow some power to righties and some of these bats are hitting righties well. He can get his strikeouts too though, so this would be a solid hedge spot.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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