Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/1:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kevin Gausman
- Nick Lodolo
- Spencer Strider
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New York Mets (-125) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Cabrera has a bright future at the MLB level and that could even be in this spot. He was strong in the spring but he hasn’t been great in previous games against the Mets. Megill steps in for Verlander but don’t expect a Verlander type performance. The top half of the MIA lineup has looked decent to begin the season so I think they could be a sneaky little stack option.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Alonso is 3 for 8 with 3 HRs against Cabrera.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: I wouldn’t be shocked to see MIA win AND put up 5+ in this game.
Atlanta Braves (-267) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Strider racked up the K’s during the spring but we expected that. He’s always going to provide us ridiculous upside. Gray was spectacular this spring as he allowed just 1 run in 16.1 innings. I have a hard time not wanting to stack ATL as a few have hit Gray well and/or are swinging it well right now.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs last season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Washington put up 8 runs on 8 hits against Strider last season (13 innings).
Toronto Blue Jays (-140) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The 2 SPs in this game were polar opposites during the spring as Gausman was dominant, allowing just 8 hits in 13.2 innings while striking out 18 across 4 starts. He has started the last couple of years really hot out of the gate so I am interested for GPP purposes. Flaherty was pretty bad this spring and it is a bit worrisome as he has dealt with so many injuries the last couple of years.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Springer and Bichette combined to go 9 for 12 in game 1.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: The two above are a combined 6 for 11 with 2 HRs against Gausman.
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Minnesota Twins (-165) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – Sonny Gray
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I wish I could promise 6 innings from Gray but he threw just 9.2 across 3 spring starts so I do have some worry about his upside. He has held the KC roster to an OPS of just .527 in their careers. Lyles allowed a bunch of walks (10 in 15.1 innings) this spring. He allowed 26 HRs in 179 innings last season. That’s enough to make me really interested.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Let us down on opening day so I am going to go back to the Twins at far lower ownership.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against MIN in 2022.
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Philadelphia Phillies (-130) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Wheeler looked really bad during the spring. I know, I know it was just the spring action but this is the majors and guys can’t just snap their fingers and be dominant. Wheeler wasn’t anywhere near as strong on the road last season. Eovaldi was pretty solid during the spring but he did struggle in his final tune-up. Are we going to see another high scoring match-up?
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Jake Cave
GPP Note: Realmuto is 3 for 7 with an HR against Eovaldi.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 at home in 2022.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-150)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Rich Hill
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Lodolo was the most impressive SP during the spring for the Reds. He’s a former 1st-Rounder who flashed some great upside last season. I think Lodolo is in a great spot but I want to see what kind of weather we get at this joke of a ballpark. Hill was lit up all spring but can CIN take advantage of his lack of stuff during his age-65 season?
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 on the road last season.
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Will Benson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 at home last season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-260)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Bumgarner allowed 4 HRs in 17 innings against LAD in 2022 while he struck out just 9 hitters. Kershaw feels like a perfectly fine play for us as the ARI lineup is surprisingly soft against LHPs. Walker has 8 hits against Kershaw, with 4 of those being HRs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against LHPs in 2022.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against ARI in 2022.
Milwaukee Brewers (-125) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Steele made 6 starts against MIL in 2022 and he was able to rack up 39 Ks in 31 innings of work while holding them to an average of just .198. Woodruff was atrocious at Wrigley last year (9 runs in 9 innings while striking out just 7). I have also decided that I am going to fade MIL pitching for the first couple of weeks as they went through this lull to begin the 2022 season as well.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 against the Cubs in 2022.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Roster has a career OPS of .547 against Woodruff.
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Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners (-140)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Civale was really strong during the spring but when I look at his numbers overall, he’s been pretty rough away from home at the MLB level. Gilbert is a guy that people expect to take a big step forward and I tend to agree. I want to see what kind of lineup CLE throws out there as they tend to be more LH heavy against RHPs but Gilbert likes it that way.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: 14 of the 19 HRs allowed by Gilbert in 2022 were hit by RHBs.
5-star plays: Jared Kelenic, Ty France
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Which one of these guys is going deep? I’m guessing that it’s Kelenic!
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
Rays – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Not a whole lot to say about this game other than give me the Rays and Eflin. The Rays stack is going to end up in my top 5 or 6 as I think they can get to Turnbull. The 2022 Tigers were extremely bad against RHPs and Eflin looked solid this spring after signing the largest FA contract handed out by TB.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .112 against LHPs in 2022.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco
4-star plays: Harold Ramirez Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Ramirez is 3 for 5 with an HR against Turnbull.
Los Angeles Angels (-165) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
A’s – Shintaro Fujinami
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Fujinami struck out 20 across 18.2 spring innings while he allowed just 7 hits. Those numbers sound elite but let me tell you that he walked 17. There’s always an adjustment period for Asian pitchers at the MLB level. Sandoval looked strong in the WBC so I have to like him against a weak OAK lineup.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against OAK in 2022.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Allen
GPP Note: I am not sure if OAK’s desire to steal bases will work against Sandoval.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-150)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We saw game 1 of this series blow-up despite it being cold in Boston. We could see that blow-up again but BAL hasn’t fared well against Sale, previously. This feels like a spot where the Sox pick up some runs early and before you know it they’ve put up 6 in the first 4 innings.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team roster has 17 Ks in 42 PAs against Sale.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Devers and Verdugo are a combined 8 for 25 with 5 extra-base hits against Kremer.
San Francisco Giants @ New York Yankees (-140)
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both of these teams combined to strike out about 84 times in the season opener. We could see more strikeouts but we also could see a few HRs in this spot. Cobb racked up some strikeouts during the spring but he did allow some runs. Clarke has a pretty big weakness with LHBs and that could be troublesome in Yankee Stadium
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Over the last two seasons, LHBs have an OPS’ of 1.368 and .797 against Schmidt.
5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 at home in 2022.
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros (-125)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. At this point, I am just not a Giolito fan. He looked like he was on his way to being an ace and then the MLB cracked down on substances for pitchers and since then he’s been, blah. Urquidy is one of those arms that’s just flat out steady. Somebody on Houston is going deep today but who?
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against RHPs in 2022.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Bregman and Tucker have a combined 8 RBI against Giolito (rest of the roster has just 2).
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-225)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jose Urena
Padres – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This game has quite a bit of positive BvP for us to work with. Bryant has absolutely destroyed Wacha while the Padres have a bunch of guys who have tormented Urena. San Diego hasn’t looked great to begin the season so I have my reservations about jumping on them but Urena is not a very good SP at this point.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Bryant and Blackmon are a combined 21 for 59 against Wacha (Bryant has 8 extra-base hits).
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter, David Dahl
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .134 at home in 2022.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Minnesota Twins (UPDATE: Braves slide into the 2 slot with the wind/hitting environment)
- Cincinnati Reds
MLB Dinger of the Day – Matt Olson, Braves
Mar 27, 2023; North Port, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) hits a 2-run home run against the Boston Red Sox during the third inning at CoolToday Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
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