Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/18:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Spencer Strider
- Marcus Stroman
- Drey Jameson
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Minnesota Twins (-115) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Twins – Sonny Gray
Yankees – Chris Sale
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. As a Twins fan, I’m not overly excited about this match-up. I know Sale has been hot garbage to begin the 2023 season but I’m not sure that the Twins match-up all that well against him right now. It’s going to be pretty freaking cold and windy in Boston for this one. Gray has looked great so he might be the better option in this game even though I do think Minnesota struggles with Sale. I know the total is higher but I just don’t like the spot for bats right now.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Kyle Garlick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees (-145)
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Schmidt could surprise a little bit but it’s not an easy spot. He has been dominated by LHBs to begin the season but the Angels are EXTREMELY RHB heavy with their lineup. The Yankees haven’t faced too many LHPs yet this season so it’s tough to trust their weak numbers to this point. Suarez has allowed 18 hits in 8.1 innings of work so I would expect the Yankees to carry quite a bit of ownership tonight.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs.
Texas Rangers (-125) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Keller was dominant against this Texas squad just last week but we know that gives the hitters quite a bit of familiarity so I actually give the bats a little advantage in this spot. The Royals have hit Eovaldi extremely well overall and they definitely did last week (6 runs in 5). We could be looking at a game with some runs being scored tonight, which is interesting given that this park isn’t the greatest for offense and the Royals just aren’t that good overall.
TEX 5-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-145) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Gray is 0-3 despite throwing the ball extremely well over his last 2 starts. He does give up a ton of HRs and so far this year it’s been to RHBs more than LHBs. The three guys listed below for BAL have ISO’s of .268, .273, and .269 against RHPs so far this season. Kremer has given up 13 runs in 12.1 innings and 5 HRs over his 3 starts this season. Candelario and Garcia have been swinging it well this last week. I really like Luis Garcia in this spot.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: Luis Garcia
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 against RHPs.
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New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-155)
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Alonso and Lindor have combined for 7 of the Mets’ 10 HRs against LHPs so far this season. Freeman exploded last night, which sucks, because it will drive up his ownership a bit tonight. He has had success against Megill. The Dodgers have a team OPS of .805 against RHPs so far, which is pretty damn good. Kershaw was sharp in his first start but he hasn’t been sharp at all in his last 2 and this isn’t the best of match-ups.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .176 against LHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Max Muncy, James Outman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants (-120) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. If the Giants weren’t dealing with injuries to some of their LHBs, I would be really excited about the spot. I am a big Cabrera fan but he hasn’t been sharp to begin the season. He’s not striking dudes out and he’s walking FAR too many at this point. He certainly has some electric stuff on the mound. Soler has all 3 of the team’s HRs against LHPs this season, while the res of the team has just 4 extra-base hits.
SF 5-star plays: Thairo Estrada
4-star plays: Michael Conforto (DTD), JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against LHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. At this point in the article, I am leaning towards a Dinger call coming from the Toronto side as I think a few of the guys have seen Urquidy enough while having hit RHPs extremely well. Plus, it’s the Blue Jays and they have a ton of power. With that being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if Yordan hits 1 or 2 bombs tonight in this match-up. He has definitely hit Bassitt extremely well and Bassitt hasn’t been sharp to begin his 2023 season.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: George Springer, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .118 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St Louis Cardinals (-170)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Drey Jameson
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Montgomery has been extremely solid and I would expect him to be tonight. He doesn’t rack up the Ks generally but he did go 7 and strike out 9 earlier. Jameson has electric stuff so I am really intrigued to see him in his 2nd start. He threw just 54 pitches through 4 in his first one after starting the season in the bullpen. I would think he gets to around 70-75 pitches in this one.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
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Cleveland Guardians (-125) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Pitchers:
Guardians – Hunter Gaddis
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This game is really tough to figure out despite DET being bad. It is game 1 of the double header so please understand that SPs could be flip-flopped at some point this morning. Gaddis has looked bad against decent teams but he was strong against a weak OAK squad. He gives up a lot of flyballs and those can always turn into HRs but will they against DET? I’m not sure. Boyd has big ability but the Guardians aren’t a big K team at this point.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians (-120) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Guardians – Peyton Battenfield
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Similar to with Boyd, Rodriguez has upside and ability but is this match-up where we get to see it? I’m not so sure at this point. Battenfield is just a guy really but he did look solid in his debut against a tough NYY squad. He might be intriguing for us today. What I do know is that Jose Ramirez has hit both of the Detroit starters really well in his career, with plenty of HRs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-120) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Rays – Taj Bradley
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. There is a slight wind projected to be blowing out but it should be cooler in Cincinnati today so maybe this park plays a little bigger than normal. With that being said, I am all about the SP match-up from a fan standpoint, at a minimum. Bradley looked strong in his debut and then the wheels kind of fell off as he tried to pitch in the 6th. He was still great and he is just another of a long line of TB SP prospects that are expected to be excellent. If you’ve been reading my stuff for a while, you know how much I love Lodolo and his ability/stuff so I will be using a few shares despite the difficult spot.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .237 against LHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago White Sox – Game 1
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information for this game. As I mentioned with the first double header, we could see teams’ flip flop their SPs between games so we need to pay attention as the morning passes. What has the world come to that Brandon Marsh is making my PHI plays listed below. I would have never guessed that was the case. 9 of Nick Castellanos’ 11 hits against RHPs this season have been doubles. I think this is an upside spot for both SPs, but it’s a bit more dangerous for Lynn. When it comes to Wheeler, I am on record stating that I think he has a big of a regressive season after pitching into November last year.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago White Sox – Game 2
Pitchers:
Phillies – Bailey Falter
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.The wind will be blowing out for Game 2 but it’s still going to be wickedly cold in Chicago. If you know me, you know that I will be stacking against Giolito as I just think he’s a weak SP without being able to use grip substances. I really think that Schwarber hits at least 1 HR in this double-header. Falter is just a blah SP, the issue for the White Sox is that while the team ISO is extremely high against LHPs, it’s basically from 3 players and 1 of them is on the IL (the other 2 are below).
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Bryson Stott
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jake Burger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 against LHPs.
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Chicago Cubs (-178) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
A’s – Ken Waldichuk
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Cubs are hitting .328 with an OPS of .872 against LHPs to begin the season. Waldichuk has given up 7 HRs across his 3 starts (they came in his first 2) and he’s been hit around while walking guys. He does not look like the same guy as last season. Stroman has looked absolutely dominant. While I do not believe he’s this good long term, it can 100% continue in this spot with the game having such a low total.
CHC 5-star plays: Patrick Wisdom
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Pirates – Vince Velasquez
Rockies – Jose Urena
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12.5. I really was hoping last night’s game turned into more of a Coors pitcher’s duel so some people would jump off for tonight. This pitching match-up is ripe for some offense to be had in Coors tonight. The wind is strongly blowing out according to our weather station. I was on the fade Reynolds train last night but I will not be tonight against Urena. Bryant looks like he’s starting to heat up for the Rockies and I like to see that as a baseball fan.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-140) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Strider is a beast on the mound and I love what he’s capable of doing even when he has some struggles. The floor he offers with his K ability is strong. Snell is struggling right now and when you allow that many baserunners, bad things usually happen. Atlanta should be one of our top GPP stacks tonight based on Snell’s inability to keep guys off of the bases.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Ronald Acuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Seattle Mariners (-160)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Colin Rea
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Rea looked solid in his debut and that could carry over against a SEA squad that has underachieved a bit to begin the season. With that said, I like the Seattle bats more than the Milwaukee bats. Gilbert is a guy that I really like overall and think he has ace like ability if he’s able to put it all together. Kelenic has been destroying RHPs so it’s hard to not want to get heavy exposure to his upside.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Jared Kelenic
4-star plays: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Atlanta Braves
- Colorado Rockies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Yordan Alvarez, Astros
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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