Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s a split-slate day, though we do at least get 9 games on the main slate this evening. For those of you that cannot wait that long, there’s a smaller 3-game slate and a showdown to get you through your Monday morning. As such, there’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have all sorts of different options today, such as our showdown stud Ohtani, to a few arms on the early slate with strong KSCOREs (such as Greene), and easy targets like deGrom on the main slate. There are others with some KSCORE upside as well, such as Gausman, but perhaps people will shy away from him pitching against Houston? As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
We’ll start things off with our showdown slate game between the Angels and Red Sox. We have Ohtani and Bello starting, and they began with an 8.5 total. From a DFS standpoint, it’s pretty much business as usual for the Angels. The tougher question will be, who might get to Ohtani and post up some fantasy points from the Red Sox?
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ward/Renfroe, O’Hoppe
GPP note – Trout is in play as usual, but there are some other bats here hitting for power against righties, such as O’Hoppe (though he isn’t the only one)
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Yoshida, Duvall
GPP note – It’s hard to want to attack Ohtani, but you don’t get a choice. Go for the bats with power upside and hope for the best
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins
We’ll begin our 3-game early slate with the Giants and Marlins next. Wood and Luzardo have the start here, along with an 8.0 total. I don’t know that I see huge stacks going off here, but both offenses have some pieces of interest. They should compliment any other stacks you’re running from these games, though the pitching might require more in-depth research to see which one might fare better.
Giants 4 star plays – Estrada/Flores
Giants 3.5 star plays – Conforto
GPP note – Luzardo is giving up more power and xwOBA to lefties, so don’t be afraid to try some LvL bats here
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler/Cooper
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Chisholm/Arraez
GPP note – Wood isn’t giving up a ton of power, but he is allowing some xwOBA to righties, so perhaps one or two of them will find something against him
Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds
Next up we have the Rays and Reds, with Beeks and Greene on the mound. I think we all expect the Rays to take this one, and they probably will, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any Cincinnati bats worth a look. The main two are listed below, but a few others might be worth a look, too.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Raley
GPP note – Greene throws hard and gets his strikeouts, but also gives up power to both sides, so it’s business as usual with these hot bats
Reds 4 star plays – India
Reds 3.5 star plays – Friedl
GPP note – Beeks gives up modest power to righties, though almost none to lefties, so go traditional splits against him whenever possible
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
To wrap up the early slate we head to Detroit, where the Guardians will take on the Tigers. We get an 8.0 for total here, as well as a matchup between Gaddis and Rodriguez. Vegas has this one split down the middle, though I see Cleveland taking it, mostly due to the pitching matchup. Either I’m wrong or Vegas just got lazy, but I’m curious as to why they don’t have Cleveland at least somewhat favored (perhaps later in the day they will).
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Straw/Gimenez/Gonzalez
GPP note – Rodriguez isn’t racking up the K’s and is allowing power and contact to both sides, so don’t be shy here
Tigers 4 star plays – Maton
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baez
GPP note – Gaddis isn’t allowing much power (only one home run allowed in 2023), but plenty of contact to lefties. You’ll probably need bigger stacks if you go here and hope they do to him what the Yankees did, rather than to just rely on a one-off
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Main slate
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Phillies and White Sox. We get Wheeler and Lynn as our starters here, along with a 7.5 total. Both of these guys are giving up some power on occasion, so while I don’t think this game gets out of control, I do think there’s a good chance of a few bats having a pretty nice day.
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner, Marsh
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber/Castellanos
GPP note – Lynn will get his strikeouts I’m sure, but he’s having some problems giving up power (and multiple home runs) to lefties
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert, Moncada
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi, Burger
GPP note – Wheeler is giving up decent contact to both sides of the plate on occasion, though also a good chunk of power to lefties
Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
Next up we have deGrom and the Rangers taking on Lyles and my Royals. Another 7.5 total, I think this one will be a bit less exciting than the previous game, at least as far as offensive production goes. If nothing else, here’s your main cash pitcher!
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe, Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Heim, Jung
GPP note – Power given up by Lyles has been about equal to both sides, but there has been a lot of xwOBA against him from righties (almost double than that given up to lefties)
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez, Witt/Perez
GPP note – Contrarian stack if you dare
Arizona Diamondbacks at St Louis Cardinals
Moving on down I-70, our next game will be between the Diamondbacks and Cardinals. We get Kelly and Flaherty here, as we move up to an 8.5 total. It’ll be interesting to see how Flaherty handles himself, as that could be the deciding factor on whether this game goes under or over.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Rojas
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Gurriel/Marte
GPP note – Flaherty seems to be coming around a little bit, so be somewhat cautious here. He has given up more power and contact to righties, for what it’s worth
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Gorman
GPP note – Going reverse splits seems to be a good idea against Kelly too, as he’s given up far more power and contact to them than to lefties
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
We head down south for our next matchup, this one between the Blue Jays and Astros. We will see Gausman and Javier face off, and they will split an 8.0 total. This could be a fun one to watch, as all four sides (both starters and both offenses) are capable of a high-ceiling on any given day, so it’ll be interesting to see which one(s) prevail.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Bichette/Chapman, Kiermaier
GPP note – It’s not a great matchup against Javier, but he is allowing above average power to lefties, so be sure to look at any that are in the starting lineup
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 3.5 star plays – Tucker, Bregman
GPP note – Tough matchup against Gausman, though he does give up a little bit of power to lefties (though not much)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head out to Coors for our next game, with the Pirates and Rockies squaring off. Hill and Freeland will take the mound, and they look to have an 11.5 total to start with. It’s Coors, so there’s not much else that needs to be said here. Everyone will be looking this way, so it’ll be up to you to eat the chalk or find some (potentially) better alternatives.
Pirates 4 star plays – Santana/Hayes
Pirates 3.5 star plays – McCutchen, Joe
GPP note – Freeland has certainly held his own this season, so an argument could be made to make a pivot to elsewhere. Otherwise, righties have the power advantage
Rockies 5 star plays – Bryant
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron, Blackmon
GPP note – Righties have the power advantage here too – almost exclusively
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Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners
We’ll now head out west for our late games, starting with the Brewers and Mariners. Burnes and Flexen get the start here, as we move back down to a 7.5 total. I suppose that seems fair, but my gut tells me that this one is going to see the over. Maybe not by a ton, but just enough to comfortably go over.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich, Tellez
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames, Winker
GPP note – Righties have a big power advantage here, so consider taking advantage of it
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – France, Kelenic
GPP note – Burnes can be dangerous but has been allowing a good chunk of contact and power to righties, so don’t be afraid to test your luck there
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Fried and the Braves will take on Weathers and the Padres next, and we get an 8.5 total for this one. I think the over/under will depend on how Fried fares, as he’ll be returning from a mild injury. He’ll have his work cut out for him against this offense, so we’ll see how that turns out.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Riley/Murphy
GPP note – Weathers is not a huge strikeout threat and allows plenty of contact and power to righties, so keep it simple here
Padres 4.5 star plays – Machado, Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Cruz
GPP note – Fried hasn’t pitched a ton this season, but seemed to be in decent enough form when he did. Several righties here are hitting for power, but Fried wasn’t allowing much to either side, so use some caution
Chicago Cubs at Oakland Athletics
Next up we have the Cubs and Athletics, with Wesneski and Muller to get the start. Another 8.5 total, I could see this one going over and being a bit of an underappreciated game, as both offenses seem to be in a good spot here against some softer pitching. It might be a good spot to pick up some pieces of a secondary stack or two.
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Suzuki, Wisdom
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Bellinger/Gomes
GPP note – Muller seems to be trending downwards a little and is giving up good power to righties
Athletics 4 star plays – Laurenao
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Langeliers/Diaz
GPP note – Vegas isn’t giving these guys a ton of love but they do profile well against Wesneski. You can attack him from either side as the power & contact is about equal to both hands
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day here with the Mets and Dodgers, along with another 8.5 total. Peterson and May will get the start, and they’ll face some much bigger names for the same total as the previous game. This is a viable pivot to Coors, but don’t forget about the less sexy looking pivot back there in Oakland.
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor
Mets 3.5 star plays – Alonso/Marte
GPP note – May is allowing some power to righties and isn’t showing dominant strikeout stuff, so you can attack him here even though Vegas isn’t giving these bats much love, either
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez, Muncy
GPP note – Peterson is getting a steady slew of strikeouts, so hedging here isn’t a bad idea in the event he shows up and really delivers. Otherwise, righties have a slight power advantage against him
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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