Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/16:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shane Bieber
- Framber Valdez
- Matthew Boyd
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Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees (-160)
Pitchers:
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. Extremely intrigued by this pitching match-up but with the way the HRs have been in this series, I am also a bit worried. Last year the Twins rocked Cole for 5 HRs in 2.1 innings of work. I do not expect that to happen again today but we know that Cole can give up the HR at times. Lopez has been every bit of the ace that Minnesota needed to acquire via trade.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Red Sox – Garrett Whitlock
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I don’t have the same tingly feeling about this match-up as I did yesterday. The weather will help push me one way or another in this one as I actually am intrigued by both SPs right now. Detmers has struggled a bit to begin the season but he looked ready to become and elite guy this spring. Whitlock did give up 3 HRs in his first start of the year, after surgery, but it was against TB and their hot hitters.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs so far.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-160) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Royals – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wright was pretty bad in his 2023 debut but I think he figures it out going forward and that could start with today. The Royals overall lineup is pretty weak and they’ve been soft against RHPs so far. Greinke has made 3 starts already, 2 pretty solid ones and 1 not so solid. He’s not going to pick up a bunch of Ks by any means so that’s why we are always using hitters against him. He’s managed to get soft contact over and over again but when you allow teams to make so much contact, there are going to be times where you just get lit up.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Sam Hilliard, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians (-240) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I don’t have Josh Bell listed below because he has seemingly forgotten how to hit LHPs but he is 3 for 10 with 3 HRs in his career against Corbin. I will always pick on the Ghost of Patrick Corbin when he’s on the mound. That means I have to rely on an offense, like Cleveland, that appears to be swinging wet pool noodles at the plate. They do have more power against LHPs so far this season so that’s a plus. Not much to say about Bieber and his match-up, he’s in a great spot.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Mike Zunino
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-240)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Dodgers – Luis Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We know that Urias is an elite SP at this point (feels like he should be 40 with how long he’s been around) and we know that the Cubs have some guys in the lineup that can strike out plenty. While the Dodgers are better against RHPs, they do have a few guys that can hit LHPs extremely well. Smyly was great last time out but he was lit up in his first start and I lean more towards that start than his second one.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .136 against LHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Will Smith, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .226 against LHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins (-125)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. What a pitching match-up we have in this one. Obviously Alcantara is the reigning NL Cy Young winner but Gallen was really freaking good last year himself. Gallen opened the season with a couple of rough outings against the Dodgers and Padres but then dominated a hot Milwaukee lineup at the time. He was traded by the Marlins to Arizona so I’m sure there’s a little extra motivation. The current Marlins roster is just 6 for 45 against him.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-205)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Andrew Heaney
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I wanted to say that we might get a pitcher’s duel on Sunday Night baseball but the Astros have hit LHPs well to begin the season and Heaney is far from consistent and predictable. He dominated the Royals last time out but he was lit up by the Orioles in his first start. We could see him strike out 9+ in 5 innings or he could be done after 2, to be honest. Valdez is as steady as they come at the MLB level these days. The Rangers have struggled mightily against LHPs so he’s going to be in a great spot.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .075 against LHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .217 against LHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-178)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I could see this game turning into more of a pitcher’s duel than most people think. I am on the Keller train as I still believe there’s tremendous ability as he flashes dominant stuff. He wasn’t good in his first start but he was dominant against Boston and was pretty close to dominant against Houston, allowing just 2 solo HRs. He might be a pitcher that I end up overweight on today. Mikolas has struggled in all 3 starts and he gave up 3 HRs his last time out (in Coors). He’s just allowing a ton of hits right now but we also need to realize his 3 starts came against Toront, Atlanta, and then at Colorado.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
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San Francisco Giants (-145) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Boyd has been average to decent to begin the season after having a dominant spring. It’s actually a very intriguing spot for him and his K upside as the Giants have struck out a TON against LHPs so far this season. Webb just signed a big extension and that could motivate him in this spot. The Tigers offense has been decent the last few days but overall they just aren’t very dangerous.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .081 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-120) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Blue Jays have been really weak against LHPs despite a few guys hitting .500 plus against them. We know how elite McClanahan has become so it’s going to be a really interesting match-up. Manoah has struggled with command and that’s a tough thing to have going on when facing this TB offense. While I do think we are starting to see a little regression from Tampa Bay, it’s a good spot for them while Manoah is struggling.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .278 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 against LHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox (-145)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am really torn on what to do with this game and the pitching match-up. Cease has spectacular upside and while the BAL lineup has been one of the better ones to begin the season, I could see a dominant performance. Rodriguez has looked great at times and then he struggles, which is kind of expected from a rookie pitcher. The overall White Sox lineup isn’t something that I am overly afraid of. I probably won’t go overweight on either SP but I definitely want exposure.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
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New York Mets (-165) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Mets – Jose Butto
A’s – JP Sears
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. As I am writing this, Alonso is my front runner for Dinger call against the LHP. Butto is making his first start of the season but his first MLB start came last year and it didn’t go well for him. He gets a pretty solid match-up but I might get myself some OAK exposure today as a couple of guys are in interesting spots for us. The Mets should be fairly popular against Sears.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies (-190) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Reds – Luis Cessa
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I will continue to harp on the fact that Nola hasn’t looked good to begin the season, after pitching into November last year. This game has a pretty high total so there’s a chance he struggles again. he has been a little unlucky as 12 of the 23 guys he’s allowed to reach base have scored. Cessa hasn’t fared very well against a bunch of the PHI bats so this feels like a spot for the PHI lineup to wake up.
PHI 5-star plays: Alec Bohm
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India
4-star plays: TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (-178)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Wade Miley
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I know the total is pretty low but the Padres have a handful of guys with career OPS’ over 1.000 against Miley so I am definitely intrigued by the SD stack upside. Darvish could dominate or the Brewers could keep putting up runs. I lean more towards Milwaukee scoring some runs but the game total is much lower than I would have thought. Makes me wonder if it’s cooler in SD than expected.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 against LHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners (-305)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Noah Davis
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Davis gave up roughly 1.7 HR/9 in the minors last year and gave up 1 in his brief MLB debut. He has made 3 starts this season at AAA, going just 12.2 innings total with more walks than strikeouts. This feels like a trap but how can we not love the Mariners bats? Castillo is a massive favorite for good reason. I know the Rockies have a couple of names that can do damage but I have a hard time believing they will do that damage.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Jared Kelenic
4-star plays: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves
- Cleveland Guardians
MLB Dinger of the Day – Pete Alonso, Mets
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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