Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/15:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Freddy Peralta
- Michael Kopech
- Anthony DeSclafani
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Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees (-140)
Pitchers:
Twins – Tyler Mahle
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Mahle is 1 pitch away from being dominant to begin the season. German was dominant to begin the season but made 2 mistakes and then he could find the strike zone last time out. I wonder how warm it’s going to be in NY on Saturday as I think there’s a route to both SPs throwing well but the HRs have been happening in this series so far. Correa looks to be heating up while Rizzo looks the same on the other side.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Jose Miranda, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox (-115)
Pitchers:
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. There is some sexy BvP on the LAA side in this one. If you put Ohtani, Rendon, and Renfroe together you get 19 for 40 with 7 HRs and 5 2Bs against Pivetta. As it sits right now, I am really hoping we get some warm weather in Boston for this game and just for extra fun, how about 15 MPH winds blowing out! I don’t think we need to look deep into Anderson or Pivetta and just rely on the bats.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs so far.
BOS 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Justin Turner is 17 for 34 with 3 HRs, 4 2Bs, and 4 BBs against Anderson.
Atlanta Braves (-140) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Braves – Bryce Elder
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Seeing the total at 9 in KC makes me believe it’s going to be very warm which is obviously great for hitting baseballs. Elder has looked great for ATL while Bubic has been a huge surprise over his first two starts, despite the Royals taking an L in each. I Don’t want to believe in the 9 Ks from Bubic last start so I will end up fairly high on the ATL bats against him.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians (-155) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Nationals – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I had a lot to say to our VIP members on Friday in regards to the Guardians being a chalky stack. Let’s just say that I don’t like teams that have the power of a wet pool noodle as a chalk stack. I do love picking on Kuhl but his reverse splits lean this season could work in his favor. You will have to check out what I have to say in my notes as I am going to debate how to attack this game. Plesac should be a solid option for us but I do wonder if he has enough K upside?
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .101 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-165)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Dodgers – Michael Grove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I do like this game for some runs as neither SP has looked good to begin the season. We know how potent the Dodgers are against RHPs and while the Cubs aren’t rocking a huge ISO, they have some guys that can get it down against RHPs and on the bases (Hoerner stealing bags). I do wish this game was earlier in the day as we could see more offense but I do think this is a game to target for bats.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .119 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy
4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .257 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins (-125)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think that both SPs are weak enough to make bats in this game somewhat of a priority. I prefer stacking the Arizona side as Garrett has allowed a ton of baserunners so far this season. When it comes to Miami, I think I prefer a mini-stack over a full stack. Arraez just keeps hitting and hitting and hitting and hitting while the rest of the lineup just doesn’t really want to hit all that much right now.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-178)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Astros – Hunter Brown
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. The Texas lineup just looks so much weaker without Seager near the top. I know they have guys capable of doing damage but I am a fan of Hunter Brown and his ability/upside. I was off of him to begin the season because of a back issue at the end of spring training but he appears to be healthy. He was dominant against the Twins and has thrown 190 pitches in his two starts. The Astros bats aren’t exactly tearing it up and one of their hottest hitters left last night injured (McCormick). We might have to consider Gray as an option, which I almost never do.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .110 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-195)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Roansy Contreras
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am very intrigued by this game as I think that a few different things are possible and when that happens, I want to get exposure to all outcomes. Contreras has incredible arm talent but he hasn’t shown the K’s through 2 starts. He was fine all spring so I would expect them to appear soon. Matz can shut just about any team down but he can get smacked around by just about anybody. I think the Pirates are a very sneaky stack option today. Gorman is destroying RHPs to begin the season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Connor Joe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
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San Francisco Giants @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Tigers – Michael Lorenzen (potentially)
Rundown:
Waiting on the SP announcement for Detroit. DeSclafani is going to be pretty popular and I can’t argue against it. The Tigers haven’t been great against RHPs while he has looked great to begin the season. We know the Giants have flashed a ton of power against RHPs to begin the 2023 season but they are dealing with some injuries to their power bats. I do think there is a route to a strong game out of the Giants today.
SF 5-star plays: Thairo Estrada
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .238 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Rays – Calvin Faucher/Josh Fleming
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I realize that the Blue Jays haven’t hit LHPs with much power yet this season but this is Josh Fleming we are talking about. Toronto is hitting .291 against LHPs, they just haven’t hit the HRs yet (just 4). Kikuchi was great all spring and came out to begin the season looking strong. He then proceeded to get smashed by the Angels and now he faces the best offense in baseball to begin the season. Give me all the runs.
TB 5-star plays: Harold Ramirez
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .268 against LHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 against LHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-120) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Call me crazy but I think this game goes under the current total. I know both SPs are capable of getting lit up and the Orioles offense has shown some pretty strong ability to begin the season but I like the way that Kopech threw the ball last time out. As far as Gibson goes, I think the White Sox lineup is just mediocre at this point and he’s always capable of being solid enough to end up in a game that finishes 4-3.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
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New York Mets (-190) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
A’s – Shintaro Fujinami
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Mets offense exploded last night and that could carry over to today. Fujinami has struggled (putting it lightly) at the MLB level but the Mets haven’t been good against RHPs so far. I am going to trust the projection a bit and be on the Mets bats. Carrasco hasn’t been good and the A’s have been pesky so far but I have a hard time trusting anybody other than the red-hot Rooker.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds (-115)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Matt Strahm
Reds – Graham Aschcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I may be one of the few that see a 9 total in this game and ignore it because of my man crush on Graham Ashcraft. I think he offers us impressive upside so while I know the PHI lineup can do damage to RHPs, I really like his upside for GPP play today. The Reds have been a team that sneakily gets there against LHPs but Strahm has been throwing the ball extremely well. I do think he has some regression coming but are the Reds the ones to be able to make it happen?
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India
4-star plays: Tyler Stephenson, Spencer Steer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (-135)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Padres – Seth Lugo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am a bit shocked to see a total of just 8 with SD favored. Milwaukee’s offense has been far better than SD’s so far. Peralta is a better SP than Lugo despite Lugo starting the season out hot. With Lugo we have to remember that he’s been in the bullpen the last few seasons so the fact that he threw 109 pitches last time out has me thinking he could struggle a bit in this spot.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners (-260)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am definitely a fan of Kirby so it’s going to be tough to not want to be all about him despite his struggles to start. Kelenic just keeps destroying baseballs, especially against RHPs. It’s just a matter of time before J-Rod wakes up and I have a sneaky suspicion that it could be tonight. I am going to be back to the Seattle train tonight (they were my top stack last night).
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Jared Kelenic
4-star plays: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Angels
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jared Kelenic, Mariners
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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