Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We have an evening full of games, which means this time we get a nice big slate for our Friday night instead of a few smaller ones. With that, there’s plenty cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
Though we have a lot of games on our main slate, we don’t actually have any studs that stand out. In fact, not a single one of these games dips below an 8.0 total, and only two pitchers have KSCOREs above 500. One of those is Morton, who could serve as a cash game option – so long as the weather holds out. Perhaps this is one of those times where we skip the cash games and focus on tournaments instead? Either way, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early games
San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with our early games, starting with the Giants and Tigers. Manaea and Wentz will get the start, and Vegas is giving them a 9.0 total. That will be the theme of the day, as a lot of bats are in decent or better spots today.
Giants 4 star plays – Villar/Davis
Giants 3.5 star plays – Yastrzemski
GPP note – Wentz allows plenty of power to both sides of the plate, so you can attack him from either side here.
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – Even though Manaea can hold his own quite well, Vegas is still calling for these guys to put up about 4 runs. Get some exposure to the righties here, perhaps in small/medium-sized doses, and don’t be afraid to try some of the cheaper bats.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Next up we have the Diamondbacks and Marlins, with Bumgarner and Rogers on the mound. Another 9.0 total, I like several pieces from both sides of this game, though probably only Rogers as a pitcher. Perhaps MadBum will prove me wrong, but I think the Marlins will take a bite out of him here.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Rojas
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Walker/Longoria
GPP note – Rogers has some strikeout upside but is also giving up decent power to righties. I’m not sure that huge stacks are the way to go, but having some pieces against him could be useful.
Marlins 5 star plays – Chisholm
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler/Cooper, Arraez
GPP note – Bumgarner is always a fun pitcher to attack, and this spot is no different. Righties do have the power advantage, but he still gives up plenty to lefties, too.
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Phillies and Reds, with Walker and Overton as the starters. We move up to a 9.5 total, though that’s probably going to depend on which Philly team shows up – and perhaps the weather, too.
Phillies 5 star plays – Turner
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Castellanos/Realmuto
GPP note – Overton has bumped up his strikeout rate, but still gives up plenty of big hits, and sometimes they come in bursts. Definitely stack here but consider hedging with him as an SP2 over on DK for some cheap upside, as these guys are no stranger no pudding up a giant dud when in a good spot.
Reds 4 star plays – Fraley
Reds 3.5 star plays – Friedl, India
GPP note – Walker has been a little up and down this year, so taking some bats against him wouldn’t be a bad idea in case he has another rough outing. He’s allowing about equal power to both sides of the plate, so you can try from either side.
Main slate
Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals
We’ll switch gears and head to the main slate now, starting with the Guardians and Nationals. Quantrill and Williams get the start here, and they get a 9.0 total to start with. This game seems rather unassuming and by the book, and while that’s not very exciting to us, perhaps it will keep the ownership down here?
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylor/Bell
GPP note – Traditional splits work best against Williams, so stick to the basics here.
Nationals 4 star plays – Meneses
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Call/Candelario
GPP note – This isn’t a great spot for the Nats, and they do have one of the lower totals on the slate, so I’d probably stick to smaller exposure here. Righties have a slight power advantage here, however.
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Next up we have the Twins and Yankees, with Varland and Cortes on the mound. An 8.5 total, most of that is likely to come from the home team, as they have a solid matchup all around. Maybe the Twins can pull the upset, but they have quite the uphill battle here.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Correa, Miranda/Buxton
GPP note – Perhaps the worst matchup on the day, Cortes has been steady and has not allowed any home runs since early spring training. There is some power upside here, so you can run some one-offs or mini-stacks, but I’d be careful going much heavier than that.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo, Stanton, Cordero
GPP note – Varland will come in rusty and will probably get dinged around a bit here, so you can stack as you normally would here. Righties tend to hit him for more power, so that could be one way to leverage ownership with this chalky lineup.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Rasmussen and the undefeated Rays take on Berrios and the Blue Jays next, complete with a 9.0 total. This looks like another good matchup for them to keep things rolling, and unless Berrios finds something we haven’t seen from him yet this season, I think they will.
Rays 5 star plays – Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena, Lowe/Raley
GPP note – Berrios is good for the random good game, but I think the Rays will continue to prevail here. Traditional splits are the way to go against him.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Bichette/Varsho
GPP note – Rasmussen allows some power to righties, but for the most part this is a tough matchup and I don’t see the Blue Jays going off the rails or anything of that nature.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Moving on, our next game is between the Angels and Red Sox, who will have Sandoval and Houck squaring off. We move back up to a 9.5 total, and with the matchup the Angels get, they might try to get there all by themselves.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ward
GPP note – Houck allows lots of power and homers to both sides of the plate, so best of luck to him today.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Verdugo
GPP note – Sandoval hasn’t been dominant, but he hasn’t been giving up much, either. These bats and his arm feel like they will fizzle out today, so consider just avoiding this side of the game.
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
We’ll head to the Midwest for our next few games, starting with the Orioles and White Sox. We get Wells and Clevinger as our starters, and Vegas is giving them a modest 8.5 total. They have this one split down the middle, which mostly seems fair, but Clevinger could be the one to decide that if he’s able to rebound from his last start.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mountcastle/Mullins
GPP note – Clevinger has been all over the place this season, so hedging here isn’t a bad idea. He does allow power to both sides, so you can attack him any which way you choose.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Benintendi
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Sheets/Vaughn
GPP note – Wells is pitching a little above his DK pay grade, and I think he can hold his own here. Maybe try some righties against him, but I don’t think that “stack big against the cheap guy” is quite the answer here.
Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals
Morton and the Braves will take on Singer and my Royals next, complete with another 9.0 total. We may have some weather issues here, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies, should you elect to go heavy one of these teams.
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Olson
Braves 3.5 star plays – Riley, Albies
GPP note – Singer has been quite the average target so far this season, and the weather looks a bit iffy, so this could be tricky. I don’t know that this is a hedge spot, as I don’t see him having one of his random big games against these bats. Keep an eye on the sky and maybe stack according to ownership.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez/Witt
GPP note – Morton has had a rough 2023 but showed some positive signs in his last outing. This wouldn’t be a bad place to hedge, as he should have plenty of upside potential here with the threat of him imploding again (this time to some cheap bats).
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Moving along, our next game features the Rangers and Astros. Perez and Garcia will get the start, along with an 8.5 total. This one will probably depend on if Garcia can find himself or not, as he has been searching without much success so far this season.
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Semien
GPP note – I can see why Vegas isn’t giving the Rangers much love, but Garcia hasn’t yet found himself this year so it’s not a bad idea to attack him some or hedge here. Traditional splits are usually the way to go against him.
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Bregman
Astros 3.5 star plays – Abreu/McCormick
GPP note – Perez is another pitcher that is performing above his salary, so again, I would hesitate to blindly stack against him due to him being inexpensive. Consider hedging with him as an SP2 on DK to counterbalance your Houston stacks.
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s 📊 DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
Our final game in the region is between the Pirates and Cardinals, with Oviedo and Woodford on the mound. We get another 8.5 total here, and while I think there will be some useful pieces, I don’t know that I’m sold on this one going the over.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/McCutchen
GPP note – Woodford seems to enjoy giving up the long ball to a lucky bat or two, so don’t be afraid to run some one-offs or mini-stacks here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Gorman
GPP note – Another seemingly random target on the day, don’t be afraid to stack here and punt with a few Oviedo SP2 lineups in your big tournaments on DK.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
We’ll head out west for our last handful of games, starting with the Brewers and Padres. This game will see Lauer and Wacha going head to head, along with another 8.5 total. Vegas likes the home team here, which I suppose shouldn’t be a huge surprise, but I think a select few of the Brew Crew will come through (that was totally not intended).
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Tellez/Winker
GPP note – Wacha is giving up about equal power to both sides but is coming off of a big game, so the momentum could keep these bats in check.
Padres 5 star plays – Machado/Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts
GPP note – Though righties are finding the power against Lauer, he is allowing equal xwOBA to both sides, so don’t be afraid to try a lefty or two here.
New York Mets at Oakland Athletics
Senga and the Mets will take on Kaprielian and the Athletics next, as we move down to an 8.0 total. This one has the visitors written all over it, as can be seen by that low-3.x implied total that the A’s have. Maybe they’ll surprise us all and win the day…but I kind of doubt it.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Kaprielian is giving up some home runs, but is also collecting some strikeouts, so I think that smaller or medium-sized stacks would be the better option against him. Righties have a slight power advantage against him, too.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Kemp
GPP note – Senga doesn’t look like the guy to really go after today, so contrarian stacks only.
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
Next up we have Steele and the Cubs going up against Syndergaard and the Dodgers. We get an 8.5 total with this one, which mostly seems fair, but I could see it going the under if both pitchers show up. Sounds like a decent place to hedge to me!
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Bellinger
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Mancini/Hosmer
GPP note – Syndergaard has been having a tough start to the season, so consider stacking and/or hedging here. Allowed power is about equal to both sides. Will Bellinger hit a deep one in his return to LA?
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner
GPP note – Vegas likes these guys, as usual, but Steele is holding his own and could limit the upside of these expensive bats. I don’t know that he will have a ton of upside here, but I could see this offense falling a little short of expectations.
Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Rockies and Mariners. Gomber and Gonzales get the start here, and we move back down to an 8.0 total for them. I like the over for this one, especially for the visitors. I don’t think it’ll be a big Coors game by any means, but I see them making some noise tonight.
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/Cron
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Profar/Blackmon
GPP note – Gonzales allows a good chunk of power to righties and hasn’t racked up a ton of strikeouts, so I could see this team going over their somewhat low run total by a few shares.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez/Hernandez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez/France/Pollock/Raleigh
GPP note – Gomber looks to be trending towards his “time to get shelled” form, and does allow power to both sides of the plate, so stacks of any sort and size are fair game here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.