Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. Yes indeed. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
A smaller slate means we have fewer pitching options, but at least there are some interesting ones to choose from. Springs stands out in the early games, though it’s always possible one of the two from the first game could have a surprise performance. On the main slate, Montgomery or Bassitt might be in play as a cash game pitcher. Lodolo is expensive, but he does boast one of the highest KSCOREs on the day, so perhaps he can pay it off. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Athletics and Orioles. Oller and Irvin will get the start here, and with them we get a 9.5 total. The O’s may wind up being the most popular offense on this 2-game slate, so you’ll have to find some pivots elsewhere or get creative in how you use them or the pitchers.
Athletics 4 star plays – Aguilar, Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Smith
GPP note – Nothing special here, but there are a few pieces that look decent. Outside of them, you can either look elsewhere or gamble with the cheap bats at the bottom of the order and hope they hit you a low-owned homer.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Rutschman/Mullins/Mountcastle/Santander
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Everybody else is in play here
GPP note – Oller isn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher and his statcast numbers make me think he’s going to get lit up here or in the very near future, so stack away. They’ll be popular, so you’ll need to find ways to get creative elsewhere. At any rate, he gives up slightly more power to righties, so that might be one way to do it.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Next up we have the Red Sox and Rays, with Kluber and Springs to start with an 8.0 total. The Red Sox have threatened to end the Rays’ winning streak twice this series, but with Springs on the mound I think they’ll be safe. That’s not to say that all of the Boston bats will be useless, but that low 3.x implied total seems quite reasonable for them.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Turner
GPP note – Attacking Springs doesn’t seem to be the move, but you could always try some one-offs or mini-stacks here. He gives up slightly more power to lefties.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Diaz/Raley
GPP note – Kluber continues to be a decent target to attack, and I don’t see him slowing down these guys very much. He gives up power to both sides, though slightly more to the lefties.
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Main slate
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Phillies and Reds. We have Falter and Lodolo as the starters here, and they get an 8.5 total. I’m feeling the under in this one, and if Lodolo has half the game he had against the Phillies last week, it could be under by quite a bit. Perhaps the Cincinnati offense can provide some fantasy goodness for us?
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner
GPP note – Lodolo has been tough and racked up a whopping twelve strikeouts against these guys last week, so stack at your own risk.
Reds 4 star plays – India/Steer
Reds 3.5 star plays – Stephenson/Myers
GPP note – Falter will grab a few strikeouts and can be tough on lefties, but does give up good contact and power to righties, so be sure to roll out some stacks here.
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Ryan and Birto are next on the list, as the Twins take on the Yankees. We get an 8.5 total here, though once again, I’m kind of feeling the under here. Not that these offense can’t produce, but I think our starters will keep them in check for a while, which could really hurt their scoring upside.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Correa, Gordon
GPP note – Though Brito can be a little hit-or-miss, he does profile well here so I think these bats will have some difficulties taking off. Traditional splits would be the way to go, but smaller stacks might be the way to go.
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Rizzo/Stanton
GPP note – This is a tough matchup for the Yanks and I would not be surprised to see them go the under here. The usual power bats are in play, but like with the Twins, less is probably more here.
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
Moving on, we next have Turnbull and the Tigers taking on Bassitt and the Blue Jays. We move up to a 9.0 total here, and for the most part that seems pretty reasonable. However, this Toronto offense can be random at times, so much of that may ride on them as things don’t look great for Detroit.
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene/Baez
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baddoo
GPP note – Not a great matchup, but Bassitt does allow some decent contact and power to lefties, so taking some small or medium-sized stacks here wouldn’t be a terrible thing to do.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette/Varsho
GPP note – Turnbull is allowing all sorts of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so this is a great spot for these guys to take flight. Combat the chalkiness by going with some extra righties as well as the bottom of the order.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
Our next game features the Pirates and Cardinals, with Velasquez and Montgomery on the hill. We have another 8.5 total here, though like the previous game, I think that’s mostly going to depend on how the home team looks. They do have a sound matchup awaiting them, so we’ll see if they can make the most of it.
Pirate 4 star plays – Reynolds/McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana/Hayes, Joe
GPP note – This is actually a decent spot for a contrarian stack of sorts, as there are some bats here hitting lefties for power. If you do that, be sure to hedge as Montgomery has shown he has his upside.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Donovan/Gorman
GPP note – Everything is good to go here for these bats who will garner some ownership today. Lefties have the advantage, but the righties can hit for power, so they’re all in play.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
We’ll wrap up the day with the Brewers and Padres, with Wilson and Martinez on the hill. If the Milwaukee bats can get to Martinez early enough, I think that they’ll be able to make a game out of it, but they’ll need to do some scoring as the Padres have a fairly juicy matchup.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Winker/Tellez, Mitchell
GPP note – Martinez tends to give up power to lefties and not much to righties, so that would be how I would go here. I don’t know that full stacks will pay off, but some small or medium-sized ones could be useful.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto/Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts
GPP note – Wilson is a decently soft target to attack, so you can go with stacks of any size with some confidence here. He gives up slightly more power to righties, so going RvR is a good way to go – especially with the bottom of the order to help with ownership.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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