Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/12:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Spencer Strider
- Kevin Gausman
- Sonny Gray
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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-165)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I can safely guess that Gray will not go on a strike out binge in this spot, even if I think it’s a good spot for him. The current Twins roster hasn’t fared very well against Giolito but I just don’t think he’s a very good pitcher at this point. The White Sox actually have the better BvP in this game. Luis Robert has been getting it done at the plate so he makes a lot of sense as a one-off.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-125)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Rays – Taj Bradley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Bradley is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball so I am very interested to see how he performs. The big issue that I have is that he has thrown just 106 pitches in his 2 starts this season (2 innings and then 5 innings). He has been a very big K guy in the minors and that should carry over but will the Rays allow him to go 5-6 innings today? I’m not so sure right now. Sale shows stretches of the guy he used to be and then he just falls apart with walks and HRs. The Rays are hot at the plate and have some plus BvP.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco
4-star plays: Manuel Margot, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .263 against LHPs so far.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves (-267)
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Braves – Spencer Strider
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am in love with this pitching match-up. We get a ton of velocity and a ton of potential strikeouts between these two. Greene has an HR issue which is not ideal when taking on the top part of this ATL lineup. Strider has 9 Ks in each of his first two starts and I wouldn’t be shocked if he flirts with double-digits. He does rack up pitch count so he’s generally going to be a 6 inning guy. Walks and HRs are going to be Greene’s issue as he struck out 8 in just 3.1 innings during his first start of the season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Angels (-170)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Day time baseball on the West coast generally means a few more runs than we are used to. The Angels taking on an LHP is always going to intrigue me, even if that LHP is one that I am a fan of in Gore. Gore was excellent in beating the Braves in his first start and then he went into Coors and threw an excellent game there. It’s great to see the former top pitching prospect get it done. Canning is coming off of an injury riddled stretch and TJ. He made 1 minor league start this season, striking out 10 in 5 innings of work. He gets a plus match-up but I might play the wait and see game with him.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Logan O’Hoppe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 against LHPs.
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Seattle Mariners @ Chicago Cubs (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We get more wind and warm weather in Chicago today. The pitchers are a bit better today than they were last night but it’s going to be tough to not want to get a bunch of exposure to Wrigley. I am seeing 18 mph winds blowing out to center at game time. We nailed our Dinger call last night with Kelenic and I will be honest, he is on my short list of names for today’s action.
SEA 5-star plays: Jared Kelenic
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .121 against RHPs so far.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (-195)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Marlins roster is 20 for 66 against Wheeler with just 17 Ks so there is some plus history for them. I am a huge fan of Cabrera’s upside/ability but damn is he having some serious control problems right now. He has 13 walks in 6.2 innings while allowing just 2 hits. If the Phillies are patient today, I think they have a shot at some big innings, just a matter of connecting with that timely hit.
MIA 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs.
Houston Astros (-170) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Pirates – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Hill has given up 5 HRs in 9 innings through his first 2 starts of the year. He did strike out 7 in his first start but followed that up with just 1 K. The Astros definitely could get to him early, especially with how McCormick has been out of the leadoff spot. Urquidy gave up 29 HRs last year with 19 of those being hit by RHBs so it’ll be interesting to see what lineup PIT runs out there.
HOU 5-star plays: Chas McCormick
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .250 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals (-178) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rockies – Jose Urena
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 13. A 13 run total with Jose Urena on the mound sounds like heaven for those that love action. The Cardinals’ roster has 5 HRs in just 37 ABs against Urena in their careers. Flaherty has been similar to Cabrera in that he can’t stop walking dudes. He has 13 walks in 10 innings of work. He has thrown 94 and 95 pitches in his two starts so that’s a plus but get some damn control man.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Jordan Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
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New York Yankees (-120) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Guardians – Peyton Battenfield
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Schmidt has been spanked by LHBs to begin the 2023 season and that’s not a great thing to see coming into this ballpark. Battenfield is making his MLB debut and what a painful team to have to make your debut against. Battenfield wasn’t a big K guy last year after striking out a bunch of guys in 2021 so I am not sure he falls in the K ability spectrum but this doesn’t feel like a great spot to test him out. He threw just 64 pitches in his MiLB debut this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-285)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. If you are thinking well, the Tigers got to Alek Manoah so they can do the same thing to Gausman, you need to stop. Gausman and Manoah are not the same and I will take Gausman any day of the week over Manoah. He has 14 Ks in 12 innings while allowing 0 earned runs so far this season. Rodriguez has allowed 3 HRs with just 6 Ks through 10 innings so this is going to be a really tough spot for him.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .090 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against LHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Martinez is a healthy 12 for 25 with 6 extra-base hits in his career against Cobb. The main SF lineup is extremely LH heavy so Kershaw gets such an elite K spot tonight. The Giants are striking out at a ridiculous 39% rate against left handed pitchers. The Dodgers really crapped the bed last night so I could see them bouncing back with some plus BvP to go with a ton on of power against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .252 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: JD Davis
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 against LHPs.
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San Diego Padres @ New York Mets (-115)
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. It’s kind of painful to think that this might be the best pitching match-up on the early slate of games. It certainly possible that both SPs end up strong but it’s also very possible that we see 10-12 runs in this game. Both offenses are more than capable of doing damage. With it being a day game after a night game, we could see a star get the day off at this point but I am not sure if it’s going to happen.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles (-190)
Pitchers:
A’s – Ken Waldichuk
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Waldichuk has given up 7 HRs so far through 2 starts. That’s not a good thing coming into this game as BALT (especially Mountcastle) has been flashing all sorts of power upside. Mountcastle now has 4 HRs and 12 RBI against LHPs this season. Kremer hasn’t been great to begin the season so I am not sure I want to get too heavy with him but the match-up is obviously strong.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .259 against LHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Janson Junk
D’Backs – Drey Jamison
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Junk has not been good at the MLB level and he wasn’t all that great at AAA either. This feels like a spot where we see a lot of the MIL bullpen as they try to get through this game. Jamison has elite upside but he’s probably not stretched out much beyond 70 pitches right now. I want to attack Junk with ARI bats but they haven’t exactly been mashing against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Josh Rojas
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers (-170)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This might end up being an SP match-up that we get exposure to for SP2 purposes on the main slate. It feels dirty thinking about it like that but I can see it happening. If the Rangers are without Seager, that’s a big hit to their lineup tonight. The Royals lack punch in their lineup so Eovaldi is going to make sense but I also think that KC could surprise and put up like 6-7 runs tonight.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Brad Miller, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Baltimore Orioles
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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