Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/11:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shane McClanahan
- Alek Manoah
- Jacob deGrom
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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-145)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I want to be all about Lopez in this spot as he has thrown it well in his first two starts and Chicago lost Tim Anderson yesterday. His price on DK is just too low. The Twins offense is scuffling a bit while also dealing with some early season injuries. I think they have a better shot at getting to Lynn than the White Sox have at getting to Lopez. Right now, I am leaning towards the under.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Garrett Whitlock
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Whitlock is making his MLB debut this season as he returns from surgery. He looked great in his 2 minor league starts so he might just have what it takes to continue Pivetta’s performance yesterday. TB has been the best offense in baseball but they should show some regression going forward. If you’ve read my content the last couple of seasons, you know my love for McClanahan and his future. He gets the Red Sox after they lost their LHP mashing outfielder, Adam Duvall.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .291 against RHPs so far.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves (-220)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Cessa
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I want to be on the Braves but a majority of their offense is cold at the moment. With that said, this is the type of team that can get hot in an instant, especially at home. Wright wasn’t very good in his rehab start and his velocity was down so I have some concerns. He feels like an arm that we should play the wait and see game with right now. Atlanta needs him to be in great form with the injuries they are dealing with.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Angels (-305)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have no desire to try and guess if some random dude on Washington is going to have a multi-hit game or hit a bomb off of Ohtani. If you can do that, great job and if it beats me for a lot of money tonight, I will tip my cap. I have been on the Trout train the last few days and he has been my dinger call a couple of times. I am going to jump off of that dinger train, so you can expect a bomb from him tonight.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .101
LAA 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Gray has allowed 60 HRs in 230.1 MLB innings.
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Seattle Mariners @ Chicago Cubs (-115)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Cubs – Hayden Wesneski
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Oh boy, what a total we have in Wrigley tonight. Stack it up and hope for some bombs, right? The wind appears to be blowing out to RF and there are a couple of LH power bats but I think the best bats in this game are right-handed. Flexen gives up more power to RHBs while Wesneski was hurt by LHBs in his first start of the season. When Wrigley is warm, ownership follows.
SEA 5-star plays: Jared Kelenic
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .103 against RHPs so far.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (-155)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am very much in love with this pitching match-up. I have long been a fan of Luzardo and it’s great to see him getting it done. With Nola, I still believe he has some struggles this season but this is a great spot for him as the Marlins aren’t overly dangerous at the plate. Miami is striking out roughly 27% of the time against RHPs so far in 2023. Nola was decent against a tough Yankees lineup in his last start.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Edmundo Sosa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs.
Houston Astros (-178) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I am kind of glad this game isn’t on the main slate tonight because I would be tempted to go overweight on Mitch Keller. If you take Alvarez and Tucker out of the lineup, the Astros team has just 1 HR against RHPs this season. Javier hasn’t been as dominant as you’d expect but he’s still getting outs and keeping the ball in the park. Right now I want to believe this game goes under the current total.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .088 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals (-170) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Yesterday’s Coors game had some runs but it wasn’t a DFS juggernaut that led to winning all the doll-hairs. Freeland can get by and hold teams down but I generally love this STL lineup against LHPs so I can’t be on him in this spot. Mikolas hasn’t looked very good and now he has to pitch in Coors. Cron mashes everybody in Coors while Bryant has been very solid against RHPs to begin the season.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 but an average of .328 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
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New York Yankees (-165) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Guardians – Hunter Gaddis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Gaddis is coming off of a great performance but this is a guy that struggled against SEA to begin the season and gave up 7 HRs in 7.1 innings at the MLB level last year. We get to see the Cole v Naylor match-up again after the postseason rocking the baby HR trot from Naylor. I wouldn’t be shocked if Cole comes out and absolutely shoves it down their throats today but he also could give up a couple of HRs and it wouldn’t shock me.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Naylor is 5 for 18 with 3 HRs against Cole.
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-278)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matt Manning
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Manning looked decent to begin the season but this TOR lineup is something else, especially with Chapman swinging it so well. Manoah is just way too cheap on DK tonight, it’s going to be nearly impossible to avoid being heavy on the exposure. He has had some struggles against LHBs but I really only fear Riley Greene tonight. Toronto bats are on my short list for the dinger call tonight.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .087 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Dustin May
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Giants are striking out 27% of the time against RHPs but they are providing a ton of power upside. May has looked the part to begin the season, I just wish his stuff would bring more Ks. He’s capable of big performances and his ground ball rates help his baseline on DK. A few of the Dodger bats have have done damage to Wood but none more savagely than Betts.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Will Smith
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .254 against LHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Thairo Estrada, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 against RHPs.
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San Diego Padres @ New York Mets (-140)
Pitchers:
Padres – Ryan Weathers
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This game feels like a spot where we want to attack but I also think it’s best to avoid full stacks on each squad. There’s just something about how the lineups are performing right now that makes them better as mini-stack options. We have a few guys in this one that have hit LHPs really well during their careers. If you wanted to be a little crazy with an SP in this one, I think you can dart throw David Peterson.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Ha-Seong Kim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Mark Canha
GPP Note: 3 of Alonso’s 5 HRs have come against LHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles (-190)
Pitchers:
A’s – Kyle Muller
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. If you are playing the early action, I think Rodriguez is a great play while looking to stack the Orioles. I realize that Muller has been pretty decent but I love the pop that BAL has shown against LHPs and Mountcastle is rolling right now. I wouldn’t be shocked to see BAL move to over a -200 favorite by the time first pitch comes.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .258 against LHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers (-140) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a match-up between a couple of SPs who haven’t started the season very strong. I think we can get away with a Burnes fade until he shows us he’s back but I pointed out in today’s pitcher video that I am afraid of my rule of 3 theory. Generally great athletes figure things out after a couple of bad performances which would mean that Burnes comes out and dominates. Kelly allows some power to RHBs and that’s not a great thing with the few guys I have listed below. Sneaky game for some runs on this slate.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers (-278)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Rangers – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I have zero desire to attack deGrom with the way he came out and dominated in his last start. Lyles could be a surprise but I like this TEX squad tonight, especially with how Semien and Grossman have hit Lyles. The Rangers exploded last night so I hate the idea of chasing them but when a team is getting production from the bottom part of their order, they are hard to ignore for stacking purposes.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Seattle Mariners
- St Louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jared Kelenic, Mariners
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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