Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s another split slate day, this time with six early games followed by eight of them on the main slate. There’s plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have plenty of pitching options today, ranging from good looking cash options to risky arms with reasonably high ceilings to a few gas cans that are probably going to get lit up. For the early games, the two expensive options offer the best KSCOREs, so we may have to pay up for best results. For the main slate, we have some cheaper pitchers that can match them, such as Heaney and Gallen. Perhaps they will find their way up the strikeout leaderboards? Perhaps, but either way, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
We’ll kick things off with the White Sox and Twins, with Cease and Maeda on the mound. This game is one of several on the day that starts with a 7.5 total, though this one is the most evenly split. I’m leaning slightly towards the visitors, but we’ll see if Cease can one-up Maeda.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson, Benintendi
GPP note – Maeda has allowed some decent power to righties, so be sure to roll out some RvR bats
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 3.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
GPP note – Not the best matchup, but Cease does allow some power to lefties from time to time
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we have the Yankees and Guardians, with German and Bieber to get the start. Another 7.5 total, Vegas likes the home team here, and considering the pitching matchup, I tend to agree. Though, if the good German shows up, it could go the other way, so there’s a good chance this one goes down to the wire.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Rizzo
GPP note – Tough matchup for these bats, so I’d probably stick to smaller groups of these bats
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Naylor
GPP note – German allows decent contact and power to lefties and his strikeout upside has been quite random, so if you attack him, consider doing it with bigger stacks
Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates
Valdez and the Astros will take on Contreras and the Pirates next, and with them we get another 7.5 total. Vegas likes the Astros quite a bit more here, though I guess that shouldn’t be too surprising. I think this one will play out like most of us expect it to, though there are still a few pieces of the Pittsburgh lineup that could be useful to us.
Astros 5 star plays – Bregman/Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Tucker/Abreu
GPP note – Lefties get the power advantage to start, but either hand is good to go with as the righties may get something better in the later innings
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Reynolds/McCutchen/Santana
GPP note – Another tough matchup on the day, Valdez isn’t allowing much power (just one home run given up in 2023), but there are a few bats here that can hit lefties for power. I wouldn’t go all in or anything, but a few pivots could be useful
Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
Our next game features Sears and Gibson, as the Athletics take on the Orioles at Camden Yards. We move up to an 8.5 total here, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go the over here. A bad inning or two could lead to some early bullpen appearances, and that would be just great for fantasy purposes.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Kemp/Aguilar
GPP note – Gibson can be pretty random, and tends to give up more than one homer when his opponents get to him. Mini-stacks would be a good approach here.
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle/Mullins/Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Hays
GPP note – Sears allows a good chunk of contact and power to righties, as well as above average xwOBA to both sides of the plate. This is a good spot for the O’s to attack, so don’t be afraid to stack ’em.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
We drop back down to another 7.5 total with our next game, which is between the Marlins and Phillies. Alcantara and Strahm get the start here, two strong pitchers that could shut down the other offense for a while. The only question is how long Strahm will last, as that’s anybody’s guess. Either way, I think we see the under here.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Soler
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Cooper/Arraez/Segura
GPP note – Strahm can be tough, though it’s hard to know how long he’ll be in the game. Stacks here could be pretty boom-or-bust, so if you go here, you may as well go on the bigger side
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner
GPP note – Alcantara is tough and these guys have a knack for blanking against good pitching, so it might not be a bad idea to go underweight here
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Red Sox and Rays, with Pivetta and Fleming (technically Beeks) on the mound. We split the difference and get an 8.0 total with this one, and a lot of that is going to depend on which Pivetta shows up. He can be good at times, but a bit rocky at others, and this Tampa Bay offense won’t hesitate to jump all over him if he shows any signs of weakness. He’s given up six homers so far in 2023, and I think he gives up at least one or two more today.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Turner
GPP note – Fleming is a good target to attack due to his power given up to righties, wOBA to lefties, and low strikeout rate to both
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Diaz/Raley
GPP note – Pivetta can grab some strikeouts but does allow power to both sides, so I don’t think he’s going to be the one to derail these guys
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Main slate
San Diego Padres at New York Mets
We’ll head to our main slate next, starting with the Padres and Mets. We get two studs as our starters here, Darvish and Scherzer, who both have some interesting notes to consider. Darvish has only seen 5 innings thus far in 2023, and Scherzer is coming off of a tough start in which he gave up more home runs than he had strikeouts. It will be interesting to see how they handle their starts today.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Soto
GPP note – Scherzer gave up 3 homers in a row in his last start, so I think he’ll be out for blood here. There would be plenty of upside on both sides of this coin, so you can always hedge if you can’t decide.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso/Marte
GPP note – Darvish hasn’t seen a lot of work yet in 2023, so attacking him here wouldn’t be a bad idea as he isn’t a stranger to finding himself in an early funk.
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have the Reds and Braves, with Ashcraft and Elder to get the start. A 9.0 total, I think that the Braves will be carrying the burden on whether this game will go over or not. Elder may be inexpensive, but he’s starting to pitch above his pay grade and gets a nice matchup here.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Fraley/India
GPP note – Bryce may have his spring training struggles behind him now, so attacking him with these bats might not be the best choice you can make.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Riley/Olson, Albies/Murphy
GPP note – Ashcraft has reverse splits working against him, as he has given up much more power to righties than to lefties. That’s good news for this team, so have fun stacking.
Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs
Castillo and the Mariners will take on Smyly and the Cubs next, and we get an 8.0 total for this one. Like the previous game, I think a lot of the scoring will come from one team, though this time it’s the visitors. In the end, I don’t think this game will be quite as close as what Vegas is currently calling for.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Hernandez/France/Suarez
GPP note – 2023 has not been too kind to Smyly thus far and these guys can hit lefties for some power. Hand of the batter doesn’t matter a whole lot, seeing as Smyly is giving up contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Happ/Bellinger
GPP note – It’s a tough matchup for these guys, so use caution here. I’d stick to one-offs or mini-stacks at the most.
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers
We’ll head down south for our next game, this one between Greinke and my Royals and Heaney with his Rangers. A 9.0 total, Vegas really likes the Rangers here, and for the most part, I can’t disagree. However, I do think that KC can give these guys a run for their money today, so don’t completely overlook them.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Witt/Melendez
GPP note – Like Smyly, Heaney hasn’t quite found his groove this year either, so attacking him here is a viable option today.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien/Lowe
GPP note – Greinke hasn’t been dominant but has been steady with a handful of strikeouts per start, so these guys may not fly off the rails. I’d still have exposure, but maybe temper expectations just a tad.
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St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head to our Coors game next, which will see Matz and the Cardinals take on Marquez and the Rockies. Arenado will be making a visit to his old ballpark, so we’ll see if he can drop off a homer as a souvenir for the fans.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Donovan/Burleson
GPP note – Coors is always enticing, but Marquez does know how to pitch here and the first game for a team coming here has a decent chance of being a dud, so you could consider a pivot elsewhere. Otherwise, lefties have the power advantage.
Rockies 5 star plays – Cron/Bryant
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/Profar
GPP note – Righties have the power advantage against Matz, so consider some of the cheaper ones to go with the more expensive bats.
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our late game, starting with the Nationals and Angels. Corbin and Suarez will get the start here, and Vegas is giving them a healthy 9.5 total. They do like most of that to come from the home team, but I think there will be a few useful pieces from the Nats.
Nationals 4 star plays – Meneses
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Call/Candelario/Thomas
GPP note – Suarez has had his strikeout rate slowly ticking up, though he has been allowing plenty of contact and some power to righties. These bats aren’t overly exciting or anything, but nobody will be on them and they could do some damage here.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Rendon/Renfroe/Ward, O’Hoppe
GPP note – Corbin continues to be an appealing target to both sides of the plate, so the only real question here is who will you take along with Trout and Ohtani?
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we have Miley and the Brewers set to take on Gallen and the Diamondbacks. Vegas likes Arizona a little better here, and if we get a “standard” game I think that’s how it would play out. The wildcard would be Miley, as he has some extreme ends to his range of outcomes, and you just never know when he’s going to go off the rails one way or the other.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames
GPP note – This is a bit if a coinflip matchup, as Gallen has been getting his strikeouts but has also been allowing some homers in pairs. Righties have the slight power advantage coming into this one.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Longoria/Gurriel
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Lewis/Walker
GPP note – Miley can be a loose cannon at times, and when that happens there’s an equal chance of him getting shelled into oblivion or tossing a gem with double-digit strikeouts. In other words, it’s not a bad idea to hedge some with him, especially when he faces cheaper bats to help with Coors ownership.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Dodgers and Giants. Urias and Webb will get the start, and the same way we started the day, we end it by dropping back down to a 7.5 total. Vegas has this game a bit closer than I was expecting, so perhaps they aren’t as keen on Urias’ salary like I am. We’ll see how it plays out, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Giants steal one here.
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 3.5 star plays – Muncy/Martinez, Smith
GPP note – Lefties get the slight power advantage against Webb, but do note that he’s getting his strikeouts and will look to keep down this rival opponent. This would be another good spot to hedge, though they aren’t loaded with cheap bats like the previous game.
Giants 4 star plays – Davis/Conforto
Giants 3.5 star plays – Estrada
GPP note – Vegas doesn’t like the Giants much at all here, though Urias is not in great form right now by any means. He’s been okay, but the door could be open for these guys, so don’t be afraid to take some medium-sized stacks. Righties do have the power advantage.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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