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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 4/3:
Sep 25, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Charlie Morton (50) throws a pitch during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- George Kirby
- Drew Rasmussen
- Nestor Cortes
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Tampa Bay Rays (-176) @ Washington Nationals (+146)
Rundown:
We’ll kick the day off with Drew Rassmussen and the Rays heading into Washington and is going to look like a great pitching option on this slate. I’ve been streaming pitching against the Nats for the first few days of the season and tonight won’t be any different. Rasmussen finished last season with a 21.4% strikeout rate and I just don’t see the upside in this Washington lineup to burn him. Trevor Williams will take the mound for the Nats and is more of a tournament flyer than anything. This Rays team is pesky especially the top five or six in the lineup. Williams was solid enough last season that you can make a case for him here, but not a priority by any means.
TBR 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz, Jose Siri
GPP Note: The Rays could be sneaky again here, although I think Williams is good enough to not get blown up.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: This lineup just stinks right now.
Philadelphia Phillies (+145) @ New York Yankees (-175)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Starting with the Phillies, Taijuan Walker will take the mound in a tough matchup against a good lineup in a small ballpark. He is a pretty easy fade for me in this one, he averaged just 10.8 DraftKings points per game in two games pitched against the Yankees last season. Speaking of the Yankees, they’ll send Nasty Nestor Cortes to the mound in this one, and is a guy I have no issue going right back to. The top of this Phillies lineup can be scary, but our Carnage Report has Cortes as a top-three pitcher on the slate.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trea Turner, JT Realmuto, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Cortes is great at limiting damage and avoiding the big inning, the Phillies aren’t a team I want to stack even in a hitter’s park.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Oswaldo Cabrera, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: I just don’t think Walker is all that great of a pitcher, the Yankees are going to be a top stack on the slate for me.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) @ Boston Red Sox (-160)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Johan Oviedo will get the start for the Pirates in this one and probably isn’t going to be a guy I’m going to love getting to here. The Red Sox have one of the higher implied totals on the slate and even though their lineup doesn’t have a ton of standout stars in it, they can certainly get it done in a hitter’s park with the wind blowing out. The Sox have scored nine runs in back-to-back games and just aren’t an offense I want to target pitchers against right now. Kutter Crawford will start for the Sox in this one and is another guy I don’t see myself getting to, I actually touched on a few of these Pirates bats in my PrizePicks video this morning – go check that out! I think the Pirates are sneaky here, Crawford hasn’t had a sub-5 ERA since 2021 when he was in AA.
PIT 5-star plays: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: I think the Pirates are sneaky tonight and are a team I’ll certainly have some MME exposure to.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Triston Casas
GPP Note: The Sox have a top implied total on the slate and are going to look like a nice stacking option as well.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-125) @ Kansas City Royals (+105)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Jays will send Jose Berrios to the mound in a great matchup against this Royals offense. Berrios showed some volatility last season with a 5.23 ERA and 4.55 FIP while seeing his strikeout rate drop below the 20% mark for the first time since 2016. He also gave up a hard-hit rate of 43.4%… a lot of numbers not working in his favor but will draw some name-recognition ownership. I think he’s going to be a guy I’m underweight on until he shows some positive regression. The Royals will start Brady Singer who I don’t hate there but the Jays lineup does scare me, they have upside one thru nine in this order, so more of a GPP option.
TOR 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: As I mentioned, this lineup is scary but I think Singer can do enough to navigate it.
KCR 5-star plays: Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr.
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: I really want to attack Berrios, but it doesn’t feel like the slate to do it with not really having the elite spend-up pitchers that we can use the value we’re getting with these Royals bats… that said, I will certainly have some exposure in MME.
Atlanta Braves (-135) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+111)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Braves will send Charlie Morton to the mound in his season debut in his year 39 season. He regressed a little bit last season, not a ton, but a little. He still sported a 28.2% strikeout rate, but this Cardinals team does not strike out all that much, in a small sample this season they’re striking out at just a 15.6% clip. Morton would be a fine option, but not a guy I’m looking to prioritize by any means. The Cardinals will send Jake Woodford to the mound in a tough matchup against this high-flying Braves offense. Woodford is an easy fade for me here, the matchup is tough and he hasn’t shown the ability to strike guys out early in his career.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Tell me if you’ve heard this before… the Braves look great here.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: I rarely stack against Morton, but I’m fine with some one-off’s with these higher-end guys.
Baltimore Orioles (+110) @ Texas Rangers (-133)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Kyle Bradish will get the start for the Orioles in this one, he was extremely good in AAA before getting called up to the big leagues and making 23 starts with the team. He sported a 4.90 ERA with a 4.49 xERA along with a 21.8% strikeout rate. I would expect that strikeout rate to climb the more he figures out his big-league stuff and is a guy I think we can get to in tournaments here. This Rangers lineup doesn’t scare me even with that 4.6 implied run total. Speaking of the Rangers, they’ll send Jon Gray to the mound who is normally a pretty volatile pitcher and gets a sneaky tough matchup here. A lot of people see “Baltimore” and run to stream pitching, but this team is going to be pesky with all the young talent they have. Gray is a middle-of-the-road pitcher on the slate according to our Carnage Report.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson
GPP Note: Although I think the Orioles will be fun this season, I think I’ll side with Gray here.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: I get both sides of this one, Bradish could be sneaky for tournaments but the top of this Rangers order looks great and makes sense for mini-stacks.
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Detroit Tigers (+185) @ Houston Astros
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Tigers will send Matthew Boyd to the mound in a tough matchup against a banged-up Astros lineup. He came out of the bullpen last season and was pretty good, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fairs as he returns as a starter. I don’t like the matchup and I think he carries some question marks here, he’s not really a guy I see myself getting to in this one. Hunter Brown will get the start for Houston and would be my preferred option in that Boyd price range. He debuted in the bigs last season and looked the part, he had a 0.89 ERA along with a 27.5% strikeout rate in seven games (two starts). The matchup is elite against a bad Tigers lineup as well, he’s a strong option on this slate.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m a Hunter Brown guy tonight.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: The Astros look like a top stack here.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) @ San Diego Padres (-140)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Ryne Nelson will take the mound for the Dbacks as they head into San Diego in this one. Nelson spent most of his time in the minors last season but did obviously pitch well enough to make his way to the big leagues. I don’t love the matchup against a good Padres lineup, the ballpark is nice, but I think we can find better options on this slate. Then Ryan Weathers will get the start for San Diego, his numbers last season were a bit deceiving, he had a 9.82 ERA but an xERA of just 3.80, so I’m expecting some positive regression as we kick off 2023. He’s a former top prospect in the organization and is still just 23 years old… the only issue is he doesn’t have great strikeout stuff which makes him more of a secondary SP2-type pitcher.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: I think this Dbacks lineup will be fun this season, but I don’t love the spot.
SDP 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: I would have no issue with a Padres stack here even in a pitcher’s ballpark.
Cleveland Guardians (-152) @ Oakland Athletics (+125)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Guardians will send Zach Plesac to the mound in a great matchup with this A’s team in a pitcher’s park. The only issue is Plesac hasn’t exactly been a world-beater over the last few seasons, the strikeout rate isn’t anything special and none of his pitches are all that electric either. I don’t hate going underweight on him if he’s going to be popular. James Kaprielian will get the ball for the A’s, he had a strong end to the season last year but is another guy with a sub-20% strikeout rate… at least his hard hit rate is trending in the right direction after a tough rookie season.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Probably more of a mini-stack team.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Seth Brown, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: I like the matchup, but I can’t say I love the stack.
Los Angeles Angels (+125) @ Seattle Mariners (-150)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Angels will send Reid Detmers to the mound and is a guy who was pretty solid last season. He averaged 22.4 DraftKings points per start in two games against the Mariners last season and is a guy that makes sense as an SP2 option. Then George Kirby will get his first start for the Mariners this season against a re-vamped Angels lineup. Kirby is our top-ranked pitcher in the Carnage Report and will be a guy I get a bunch of at a cheap price tag on this slate.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs with these massive upside bats against Kirby.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Another team where I’ll prefer one-offs, it’s going to be a cold one in Seattle tonight.
Colorado Rockies (+185) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-225)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll round out this slate with Ryan Feltner taking the mound for the Rockies in a tough matchup against this Dodgers offense. He doesn’t have a good enough strikeout rate for me to want to absorb the risk against a great offense. The Dodgers will send Michael Grove to the hill who will look like a strong SP2 option at a dirt-cheap price tag. This Rockies lineup is one I love attacking away from Coors Field and although Grove hasn’t shown the strikeout upside at the big league level quite yet, he’s been over 25% in each season in the minors.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kris Bryant
GPP Note: I’d prefer the Grove side of this matchup.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith
4-star plays: Max Muncy, JD Martinez, James Outman
GPP Note: The Dodgers look like a top stack on the slate.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 10, 2021; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe (8) hits a home run against the Boston Red Sox during the third inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports