Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/19:
Apr 16, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves (15) reacts during the second half during game one of the 2023 NBA playoffs against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -1.0
We’ll start with the Western Conference where the Lakers will look to take a 2-0 series advantage and head back to Los Angeles. Anthony Davis had another big game last time out and is now averaging 62.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Grizzlies this season. He was doing whatever he wanted down low and was blocking everything in sight, he’ll look like a great spend-up option in all formats. LeBron James makes sense as well if you can’t quite get up to Davis, they’re going to run this team and take up a good majority of the usage. Austin Reaves had a huge fourth quarter and essentially slammed the door on the Grizzlies single-handedly, he’s going to play big minutes and looks great again here. Rui Hachimura is another guy who had a massive game, that said, I wouldn’t expect him to shoot five for six from three-point range again. The price tag is still pretty nice on him though. D’Angelo Russell got his minutes back last time out and looked solid as well as Dennis Schroder went back to his normal 20-25 minute role. Then guys like Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley are fine dart throws, Vanderbilt will be out there for his defense and I think Beasley will have a game where he knocks down 5+ three-pointers at some point in this series, but it’ll be hard to guess when that game will come. From the Grizzlies, it sounds like Ja Morant is a true question mark after injuring his hand in game one. I have to think he fights thru the pain and plays in a massive game to avoid going down 0-2 but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to lock. Morant was fairly quiet before going out with injury, that said, he’d look like a nice option in all formats if he can tough thru that injury. Jaren Jackson Jr. had a huge game and has been in incredible form as of late, the price tag is tough on both FanDuel and DraftKings but it’s hard to ignore his production right now. I kind of think they make a starting lineup change and move Jackson to the five while moving Xavier Tillman to the bench, he looked completely overmatched last time out, so keep an eye out for that starting lineup. Even if Tillman starts I don’t think he’s a guy I want to get to, he just doesn’t fit well and certainly doesn’t pass the eye test. We know Desmond Bane is going to provide a nice floor at the very least and we’ve seen a nice ceiling on him especially if Morant were to miss. Dillon Brooks will be out there for defensive purposes and isn’t shy when it comes to shooting, he’s a fine tournament option. Then guys like Santi Aldama and Luke Kennard make sense as tournament options to round out this team.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Ja Morant
4-star play: Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks
Deeper Value: Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Santi Aldama
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Xavier Tillman, Santi Aldama, Luke Kennard
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Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -5.5
Starting with the Heat, it’ll be interesting to see their starting lineup after Tyler Herro went down with a broken hand last time out. We saw Duncan Robinson start the second half in his place, but still only played six minutes. I would think they go back to Caleb Martin in the starting lineup, he’s a solid defender and a good enough shooter to play good minutes. If it is a guy like Robinson or even Victor Oladipo starting in his place I would have no issue going to them as value options. Jimmy Butler had a big game last time out and is going to look great especially if Giannis is forced to miss on the other end, I would think they stick Giannis on him defensively if and when he comes back… until then, he’ll look great. Bam Adebayo had a great game as well and is now averaging 41.9 FanDuel points per game in four games against the Bucks this season. Kevin Love had a big game relative to his price tag as well and is going to look great once again in this one assuming he plays another 20-25 minutes, we know he can light it up in a hurry. Max Strus should continue to play massive minutes and has the skill set that can burn the Bucks from behind the three-point line if he knocks down his shots. Then Kyle Lowry came down to Earth while Gabe Vincent had the big game, I prefer Vincent just for the guaranteed minutes. From the Bucks, it sounds like they’re going to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo who comes in as doubtful… most guys I would just assume are out, but there’s still a chance he wakes up and feels better and just tells the coaches he’s playing, but for now, we’ll assume he’s out for this one. It’ll be interesting to see who starts in his place, they went with Jevon Carter in the second half last time out but I have a feeling it may be Bobby Portis, so keep an eye on the starting lineup, below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Jrue Holiday – 30.9% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 18.9% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
- Khris Middleton – 32.1% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.7% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 22.3% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
All of these guys are going to look like great options with Giannis out – Middleton, Holiday, and Portis would be my favorite options, we’ve seen them have massive games with Giannis out in the past. Lopez would be right behind them. It’s worth noting that Wesley Mathews is also out here, so expect more minutes from guys like Carter, Crowder, and Ingles.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis
4-star play: Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Jevon Carter
Deeper Value: Jevon Carter, Jae Crowder, Joe Ingles
GPP Sleeper: Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Jevon Carter, Jae Crowder, Joe Ingles, Grayson Allen
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Den -8.0
Starting with the Wolves, the big question mark is whether or not Rudy Gobert will play, he’s currently questionable with those nagging back spasms. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s a go here, however. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. He was fine last time out and will continue to have his hands full with Jokic down low, I have no issue getting to him at a nice price tag. They’ll need Anthony Edwards to start to take over if they stand any chance in this series, he makes sense as a secondary option at a nice price tag as well. I’ve been playing a ton of Karl-Anthony Towns as of late with how cheap he is, he’s dirt cheap again in this one and is going to look like a great option yet again. Kyle Anderson is never a sexy option, but he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle and is a guy I want to go right back to here. Mike Conley will be the catalyst of setting the offense up and is in the same non-sexy boat as Anderson. Then guys like Taurean Prince and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are fine secondary tournament options to round out the team. I would think Alexander-Walker continues to start and makes sense as a value option in all formats. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic comes into this one as questionable as well, but he practiced yesterday so I would imagine he’s available tonight. Assuming that’s the case he’s going to look like a top raw option in all formats if we can find the salary to get up to him. Jamal Murray had a nice game last time out as well, the Timberwolves are bottom six on the season against point guards relative to fantasy points per game. Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon feel like similar options in their price ranges, both have nice upsides but can be volatile. Then guys like Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all make sense as MME flyers to round out the team.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Deeper Value: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jeff Green
GPP Sleeper: Taurean Prince, Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
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