Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/11:
Apr 9, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) reacts against the New Orleans Pelicans during the fourth quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -5.0
Ladies and gentlemen… boys and girls… we made it. We made it thru the worst part of the NBA season, that being the last week before the playoffs kick-off. Somewhere Herm Edwards is muttering, “PLAYOFFS?!”, nonetheless, happy to have them back in our lives! We start with the eight-seeded Hawks as they head into Miami, the winner of this game will move into the seven seed and take on the Boston Celtics in the true first round of the playoffs. Things start in the backcourt for Atlanta, particularly Trae Young, it’s a tougher matchup against a slow-paced Miami team that plays hard defense. He’s averaging 42.3 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Heat this season, that said, if they’re going to move on, it’ll be on him. I can’t say I love the price tag on Dejounte Murray, generally, we see guys start the playoffs underpriced as they generally see a few minutes boost to their average, but Murray has already been playing about as many minutes as he can handle. He’d be more of a tournament option at this current price tag. Clint Capela averaged just 20 minutes per game in two games against the Heat last postseason which is normally the biggest trouble with his production, he’s an elite 1.14 fantasy point per minute guy when he’s out there, he’s a GPP guy due to this, but we know the ceiling is massive with him. John Collins has been in much better form since the coaching change and is my favorite of these wing players right there with De’Andre Hunter, strictly because I trust the minutes on him the most. Then guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic and Saddiq Bey will probably float around 20-25 minutes and make sense as secondary options. From the Heat, it sounds like Kyle Lowry is going to come into this one as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here, obviously keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. Regardless, he will likely continue to come off of the bench and see around 22-25 minutes assuming he can keep up on defense. He makes sense as a value option on a short slate. Jimmy Butler is the cream of the crop on the team, averaging 48.2 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Hawks this season, he’s going to look like a top option on this slate. Speaking of someone who has owned the Hawks this season… Bam Adebayo has been great, averaging over 48 DraftKings points per game as well. These are the two guys I would prioritize from the Heat, but they’re going to have some other nice options as this Hawks team doesn’t play much defense and it’s a +4.5 pace-up spot for Miami. Tyler Herro is generally more of a tournament option for me due to the volatility in his production, but the Hawks are in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing shooting guards, so I have no issue going to him here in all formats. Guys like Caleb Martin and Max Strus will likely both see good minutes and make sense in all formats while Gabe Vincent is probably more of a tournament-value option. Finally, Kevin Love was signed to make a difference in the playoffs, so I would imagine we continue to see 20+ minutes and we know he can be a per-minute monster on any given night.
5-star play: Trae Young, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, John Collins, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Max Strus
Deeper Value: Kyle Lowry
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -8.0
Starting with the eight-seeded Wolves, the big news here is that Rudy Gobert has been suspended for punching his own teammate, so they’ll be without him and his immediate backup in Naz Reid who was injured earlier in the season. Karl-Anthony Towns comes in as questionable as well, but I gotta think he’s going to give it a go in a must-win game. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with their starting lineup, but I would think we see Towns shift over and start at the five while Taurean Prince moves into the starting lineup. Moving to the five should help the production on Towns and is going to look like a top option on the slate. Prince is already priced up into the mid-range and is probably overpriced, honestly… but he should play all the minutes he can handle with Jaden McDaniels out as well after he punched a wall on Sunday night. Anthony Edwards had a massive game to close the season out against the Pelicans and is someone I have no issue going right back to in this one, we know the ceiling is massive on him. Kyle Anderson is never a sexy option and he won’t wow you when you watch the games, but he gets it done for DFS and will be a guy I like going right back to here. Then Jaylen Nowell makes sense as a value option on a short slate if he’s able to give it a go. From the Lakers, Anthony Davis has at least 53 FanDuel points in six of his last seven games and is going to look great here especially with Gobert not there defensively for the Wolves. Towns is a pretty terrible interior defender when Gobert isn’t there to help. LeBron James has been in great form since returning from injury as well, I would expect the minutes to be at their max after it seemed like they were at least somewhat taking it easy on him over the past few games. He’s going to look like a great spend-up option in all formats in what should be a great matchup. Revenge game for D’Angelo Russell! He was not a fan of playing in Minnesota, but mostly just playing against Gobert who isn’t available for this one. He’s the third option in this offense right now and is more of a GPP option. I would expect the emergence of Austin Reaves to continue into the postseason as well, he’s been playing all the minutes he can handle. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt will play good minutes as well and make sense as filler pieces on a short slate.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, LeBron James
4-star play: Anthony Edwards, Taurean Prince, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves
Deeper Value: Jaylen Nowell
GPP Sleeper: Jaylen Nowell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt
NBA Lock of the Day: Cheat Sheats/Coaches Notes
Just a 2-game slate to kick off the postseason, so I’m going to keep the lock of the day behind the paywall, so come get signed up and take advantage of our discord and freshly launched PrizePicks tool! Check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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