Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/5:
Feb 1, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dejounte Murray (5) against the Phoenix Suns in the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Nyk -8.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Knicks, they’ll be without Julius Randle again here while RJ Barrett comes in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that Barrett is good to go and returns to the starting lineup in this one. Obi Toppin should remain in the starting lineup for Randle as well, below is how this team operates with Randle off of the court this season:
- Jalen Brunson – 31.4% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
- Quentin Grimes – 19.1% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- RJ Barrett – 29.8% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Obi Toppin – 19.3% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
- Mitchell Robinson – 10.5% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
Toppin had a big game last time out and is going to be a nice value option in this one while guys like Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett will look to take on more responsibility in the offense with Randle out. The matchup is great against this Pacers team, these starters are going to look great. From the Pacers, they’ll continue to be without Tyrese Haliburton while Myles Turner comes in as questionable. The Pacers are in tank mode, so I’ll operate under the assumption that Turner is out as well. Isaiah Jackson returned to the starting lineup in place of Turner last time out and would assume we see the same here. He had a tough game in a bad matchup but is someone we’ve seen have big games when given the opportunity this season. Andrew Nembhard, Jordan Nwora, and Bennedict Mathurin all had big games last time out and are guys I like going right back to as they take on a bigger role in this offense. Finally, the minutes on Buddy Hield are trending down as they enter full tank mode, I don’t see a reason to get to him on this slate.
5-star play: Jalen Brunson, Bennedict Mathurin
4-star play: RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Jackson, Andrew Nembhard, Jordan Nwora
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Quentin Grimes, Jalen Smith, Buddy Hield, Aaron Nesmith
Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -10.5
Starting with the Nets, I’m going right back to the well on Mikal Bridges, I’ve been all over him since coming over from the Suns. He had a bit of a down game last night but gets an elite bounce-back spot against a tanking Pistons team in this one. Spencer Dinwiddie is in the same boat and has at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Nic Claxton has seen his minutes solidify over the past couple of weeks and looks like a nice option at the center position as well. Cam Johnson has been in great form as of late and is playing big minutes as well, he’s a solid GPP/secondary option. Then I don’t think we need to get to guys like Royce O’Neale or Dorian Finney-Smith on a slate of this size. From the Pistons, Jaden Ivey continues to play all the minutes he can handle and looked great in a tough matchup last night. Killian Hayes is in the same boat but is less aggressive on offense, he’s more of the facilitator type. That said, I think we can get to both of them here at their respective price tags. James Wiseman and Jalen Duren are splitting the center minutes right now but with Marvin Bagley out maybe they will see a few more each, Duren ended up playing 35 minutes in a similar situation last night, so the upside is clearly there for these guys. Isaiah Livers and Eugene Omoruyi should fill most of the PF minutes for Bagley but aren’t guys I think we need to get to on this slate.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nic Claxton, Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Johnson, Royce O’Neale, Dorian Finney-Smith, James Wiseman, Jalen Duren
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -4.5
We’ll start with the Raptors, Gary Trent comes into this one as questionable again, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. For the sake of this article, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again, he’s missed their last few weeks. Pascal Siakam is coming off of a massive game in this matchup last time out and is averaging 52.6 DraftKings points in two games against the Celtics this season. Fred VanVleet came down to Earth yesterday but we know he has a huge ceiling and is a guy I like going right back to in this one. Scottie Barnes has at least 57 FanDuel points in two of his last four games but had a pretty terrible game last night. That said, he’s going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle. Jakob Poeltl isn’t a priority by any means but is someone I like getting to if I land on him with my roster construction, the Celtics aren’t a great rebounding team. Then guys like Chris Boucher and Will Barton would see minutes assuming Trent is out, but their price tags have already adjusted for him being out. From the Celtics, Jaylen Brown ended up missing their game last night but would think he’s able to go on the back end of a back-to-back in this one. I don’t love the matchup for him but the ceiling is obviously there, I have no issue with him in GPPs. Jayson Tatum had a rough go of it against the Sixers carrying the load last night. That said, he’s going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate. The trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are all fine secondary options, none of them are really guys I want to prioritize but makes sense if you land on them to complete your roster. Then Al Horford will look like a solid option if Robert Williams is forced to miss again.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, OG Anunoby, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Boucher, Will Barton, Al Horford
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -10.5
Starting with the Wizards, we don’t have an injury report for them quite yet but I’ll operate under the assumption they’ll again be without Kyle Kuzma, Bradley Beal, Monte Morris, and Kristaps Porzingis. Delon Wright will likely come in as questionable after missing their game last night with an illness, I’ll assume he’s back tonight and makes sense as an option in all formats. Johnny Davis should continue to start and is producing nicely with at least 27 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. He’s going to look like a nice option in all formats, I like Jordan Goodwin off of the bench as well as a guy that should see an uptick in minutes and opportunity. If Wright is forced to miss again he would jump back into the starting lineup. Corey Kispert has been on a bit of a heater with at least 30 FanDuel points in two of his last three games, I don’t think he’s a guy I want to chase necessarily, but worth noting against a team that is willing to give up the three-ball. Lastly, they’ll need Daniel Gafford’s minutes have solidified a bit and they’ll need his size against Capela down low. From the Hawks, Trae Young ended up missing their game last night which lead to Bogdan Bogdanovic getting the start, I would think he comes into this one as questionable as well. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here, he had a nice bounce-back game last time out and is going to be a guy I like going right back to here. Dejounte Murray has been in extremely consistent form as of late and looks like a nice option in all formats especially if Young ends up missing. The minutes for Clint Capela have been much more consistent as of late and is a solid GPP option on this slate. De’Andre Hunter will miss this game which will lead to Saddiq Bey starting again in all likelihood and will look like a great option at his price tag. Guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic and John Collins will see a boost in minutes at the very least with him out as well.
5-star play: Delon Wright, Johnny Davis, Trae Young, Saddiq Bey (if starting)
4-star play: Jordan Goodwin, Corey Kispert, Daniel Gafford, Clint Capela, Dejounte Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Corey Kispert, Anthony Gill, Kendrick Nunn (if Wright is out), Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -6.5
Starting with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan is going to look great here, he’s averaging 65 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Bucks this season. Zach LaVine is coming off of a nice game last time out and is a guy I like going right back to as well, it’s a pace-up spot. Nikola Vucevic seemingly always kills the Bucks from behind the three-point line as Lopez is going to play a drop defense, he’s going to look good here. Coby White has been sneaky great as of late with at least 28 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. Then guys like Patrick Beverley and Patrick Williams are fine roster fillers but not guys I think we need to get to on a slate this size. From the Bucks, Khris Middleton missed their game last night but would think he’s back in this one on the back end of a back-to-back. That said, the price tag is egregious, particularly on DraftKings, he’s not playable unless Giannis were to sit. Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, he had a huge game last night yet again and is going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate. I think we can put Jrue Holiday in the same boat as Middleton, I just don’t like the price tag. Brook Lopez looks like a solid secondary option and has been playing great ball this season. Lastly, Bobby Portis saw some nice minutes with Middleton and Grayson Allen out last night, assuming Grayson is out again tonight Portis could see some good run… Jae Crowder started in Grayson’s place and is a guy we can go to if starting again in this one as well.
5-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Coby White, Patrick Beverley, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, Jae Crowder
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Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -5.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, this spread seems extremely fishy to me… I don’t see how the Pelicans would be favored by five unless the Grizzlies are resting someone. They haven’t officially ruled anyone out yet, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. Ja Morant has been good over his last few games and is averaging 51 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Pels this season. Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. will take a hit to their rates with Morant back in there but are still fine secondary options in an elite matchup. We can jump off of the Tyus Jones train with Morant back in as well. Lastly, I don’t have any issue with Xavier Tillman if you land in his price range or need a mid-range center. I guess Dillon Brooks is a name we need to mention as an MME guy as well. From the Pels, Brandon Ingram is my preferred option between him and CJ McCollum, but both guys are nice options in a nice matchup. McCollum hasn’t been in the best form over his last couple of games while Ingram has been on a heater for a couple of weeks now. He has a 32.6% usage rate and 1.37 fantasy points per minute over the last four weeks and has at least 51 FanDuel points in two of his last three. Jonas Valanciunas has been seeing much more consistent minutes and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Then guys like Trey Murphy and Herb Jones make sense as filler pieces to round out your rosters. Murphy has the ability to get hot from the three-point range on any given night.
5-star play: Ja Morant, Brandon Ingram
4-star play: Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, Xavier Tillman, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones
Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 241.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -6.0
Starting with the Kings, I love the matchup for Domantas Sabonis here, the Mavericks don’t play a ton of defense and we’ve seen a big ceiling from Sabonis this season. De’Aaron Fox’s price tag came up a little bit from yesterday but is still too cheap considering the matchup. Kevin Huerter has cooled off a bit over his last few games but I have no issue going back to him if you land in this price range, he comes with multi-position eligibility. Then guys like Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray all make sense as roster fillers as well. From the Mavs, it’s really just Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving here for me. Kyrie had the big game last time out but Luka is my preferred option even at more of a price hit… but both guys are going to play massive minutes, I’m not sure this team knows if they want to win or lose right now. We can make a case for Christian Wood as well, he saw 30 minutes last time out and if he’s going to see 30 minutes on a nightly basis he’d be a guy I want a ton of … but again, Jason Kidd hates him.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Luka Doncic
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Kyrie Irving
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Christian Wood
Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -4.5
Starting with the Lakers, LeBron James finally got his minutes back and looks set for a playoff run. I needed to see those minutes come back before wanting to go back to him in anything other than MME, he’s going to look like a great option in all formats. Anthony Davis has at least 56 DraftKings points in four straight games and is right up there with LeBron as a great option on this team. Then guys like Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell would be more secondary tournament options on a slate of this size. Russell ended up missing their game last night, if he misses again tonight give a boost to these three guys. From the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard bounced back in a big way last time out and is going to look like a great spend-up option yet again in this one. Russell Westbrook bounced back nicely last time out as well but is more of a GPP option… I do like the revenge narrative a good deal on him here though, he’s the type of guy that would get up for that kind of thing. Norman Powell is more of a tournament option on a big-ish slate, but the minutes have been much better as of late. Bones Hyland came down to Earth last time out but should still see around 20-25 minutes and is a great per-minute producer. Then Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee will continue to share the frontcourt minutes, Zubac is the guy you want.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard
4-star play: Austin Reaves, Russell Westbrook, Norman Powell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Austin Reaves, Malik Beasley, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Eric Gordon
NBA Lock of the Day: Cheat Sheats/Coaches Notes
At this point in the season things change quite a bit before lock so I’m going to keep the lock of the day behind the paywall, so come get signed up and take advantage of our Opening Day special offer which is 50% off when you use promo code OPENING DAY! Check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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