Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s great to be back with you all for another season of MLB DFS, and I hope you all find success this year. If you’ve struggled to do so in the past, be sure to give us a look – maybe we can help you have a better season in 2023!
Get 50% off your first month of VIP membership – offer expires on Easter!
A look at pitchers
We get a short slate today, and with that, only a handful of pitching options. For the most part these matchups appear to be straight forward, though I think there are some interesting ways to go (both taking and avoiding certain pitchers). I’ll have a few thoughts on them here, but as always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
We’ll kick things off with the Mets and Marlins, with Peterson and Luzardo on the mound. Vegas is giving us an 8.0 total, which will match four of the other five games today. This game, however, is the only one that is almost evenly split between the two teams, so it’ll be interesting to see how this game plays out.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso/Marte
GPP note – Luzardo can be tough and will get his handful of strikeouts, but there’s a good chance he’ll give up one long ball here. I don’t think huge stacks are the play, but some one-offs or mini-stacks could be useful.
Marlins 5 star plays – Chisholm
Marlins 4 star plays – Segura/Cooper/Soler
GPP note – Though Luzardo probably has the edge, Peterson has been no slouch, and I could see him swinging above his salary here. I’d probably approach this offense the same as New York’s, but consider hedging with Peterson as an SP2 for some DK GPP lineups.
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
Next up we have the White Sox and Astros, with Lynn and Javier getting the start. We get a couple of quality pitchers here, both with some strikeout upside and no home runs given up yet thus far in 2023. Both teams offer quality offenses too, so this game could be a good one to hedge some bets with.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi/Moncada
GPP note – Javier was allowing some decent power to righties late last season, so don’t be afraid to try your luck with a RvR bat or two.
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker
Astros 3.5 star plays – Bregman/Pena
GPP note – Lynn looked decent in spring training, but was also giving up a good chunk of power to righties last season. It might be worth throwing a few at him here.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
We’ll head out west for our last three games, starting with the Rockies and Padres. Freeland and Martinez will get the start here, with the same 8.0 total as most of the other games today. The home team is currently the most favored of the day, just barely edging out the Dodgers.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/Blackmon, Moustakas/Cron
GPP note – There are a handful of decent bats here, but Martinez has been flashing upside and looks to be a tough target coming in, so I don’t know that full stacks are the way to go (Vegas doesn’t either, it would seem).
Padres 5 star plays – Machado/Soto
Padre 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Cruz
GPP note – Freeland somehow hasn’t allowed a home run yet in 2023 but allowed 16 hits in his most recent 6 innings pitched. He’s usually a fun pitcher to target, and I think we’ll see some fireworks here. Many others will think the same, so be sure to try some wrap-around stacks or something a little off the beaten path to get some variety with the chalk.
Not a bad way to start the season. Congrats michigan1222!
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Speaking of which, our next game will feature Kelly and May, as the Diamondbacks take on the Dodgers. Chances are this one will be pretty straight forward, but my hot take of the day is that I think the Diamondbacks have a better chance of pulling the upset here than the Rockies do. We’ll see!
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte/Walker/Carroll/McCarthy
GPP note – At first glance this isn’t a great matchup, but May does have his struggles at times, and when he has them he tends to go out with a bang. It’s most certainly a boom-or-bust situation for both sides, so if you go contrarian, go at it hard with full stacks.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Martinez
GPP note – Kelly can find a few strikeouts here but was allowing plenty of power to both sides to close out the last few months of 2022. If that trend continues, grabbing some righties here could pay off.
Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners
We’ll wrap things up with the Guardians and Mariners, with Gaddis and Ray getting the nod. We drop a whopping 0.5 runs here, down to the lowest total of the day; a 7.5 total. It’s another game that favors the home team by a decent margin, which isn’t too surprising with how Ray has looked thus far. If he can keep that going, he can quickly pay off that salary today.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Bell/Ramirez
GPP note – I don’t see full stacks really working here, but some one-offs or mini-stacks are in play as there are some solid bats on this lineup. I just don’t think Ray will be giving up much to most of this lineup.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Hernandez/France/Suarez
GPP note – It’s hard to give a whole lot of insight into Gaddis here, but considering we’ll probably only see him for an inning or two, I guess it wouldn’t matter much anyway. I would ignore hand vs hand matchups here and just go with who is swinging a hot bat (there are plenty to choose from)
MLB season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.
It’s a short slate today, so that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in if you haven’t already. Best of luck today and the rest of the 2023 season!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code NILLY to save 10% on your VIP membership each and every month!
–> Join the Winning Team Now! <–
Feature Image
May 11, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; Colorado Rockies right fielder Charlie Blackmon (19) hits an RBI single against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports