Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 3/30:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Scherzer
- Corbin Burnes
- Shane McClanahan (DK price is insulting)
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New York Mets (-120) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 6.5. What an elite SP match-up for opening day. Scherzer and his attacking style of pitching against a weak MIA lineup but facing the reigning NL Cy Young winner. I have been pretty open about my belief that the Mets under perform this season. I was surprised to learn that Scherzer didn’t face MIA last season. Alcantara was decent across 4 starts against the Mets, averaging 17 DK ppg in those starts.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: The two above are a combined 11 for 32 with 7 extra-base hits against Alcantara.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: I’m just not going to target Scherzer. I will gladly fade the MIA lineup.
Atlanta Braves (-250) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Here’s the chalkiest spot of the day (big slate, so I don’t expect extreme chalk). Fried is the largest favorite on the slate while the Braves hitters get to face the artist formerly known as good pitcher Patrick Corbin. This is a spot that I expect ATL to smash in far more times than not. Fried was elite last season on the road so he definitely has to be in our pitcher pool.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
4-star plays: Orlando Arcia, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs in 2022.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses
GPP Note: WSH got to Fried for 10 runs in 18 innings last year (3 games).
Toronto Blue Jays (-120) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I wouldn’t be shocked if the total in this one creeps up slightly as some solid hitting weather is expected in STL. Toronto is a team we are probably stacking on most slates, thanks to their potent lineup. The Cardinals have some interesting bats of their own, especially with Jordan Walker making the club out of Spring Training. Manoah is garnering some preseason Cy Young love in the betting world. This is an interesting start to his 2023 season but I do think some of the STL LHBs could give him some troubles, especially somebody like Nolan Gorman. Mikolas never excites me but he tends to be solid across the board.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: 14 of the 25 HRs allowed by Mikolas in 2022 were hit by RHBs.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 at home in 2022.
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Minnesota Twins (-145) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Royals – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game is picking up some steam in terms of offensive upside. It’s weird to say that about a game in Kansas City but there’s some helpful winds being projected. I always pick on Greinke at this point but then he somehow allows just 3 runs in 5 or 6 with his 82 MPH heater. As a Twins fan, I am excited to see Lopez get to work in the AL Central but I was shocked to see he got the opening day start over Sonny Gray. Bold prediction in this one, Joey Gallo gets his first career hit off of Greinke (he’s 0 for 17 with 8 Ks against him).
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda
GPP Note: Kepler should benefit a TON from the shit ban in 2023.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against MIN in 2022.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Texas Rangers (-135)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rangers – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. This should be a fun pitching match-up but what if I told you that I was fading both SPs? It’s up for debate internally right now and my final decision will pop in my pitching video, posted to the DFSA YouTube channel (will be free!). We obviously know how elite deGrom is but did make just 2 spring starts, topping out at 3.2 innings. Nola is coming off of a great K season but will all the extra postseason innings hurt him this season?
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team has 70 Ks in 185 PAs against deGrom.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 at home in 2022.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-140)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Reds – Hunter Greene
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Two pitchers that I think could take leaps forward this season. Greene has unbelievable arm talent but he gives up way too many HRs at this point. Keller was a top pitching prospect for quite a while. He has flashed that talent at various points but tends to fizzle in games or after a couple of starts. I know this is a small park but we could also see a LOT of Ks from both starting lineups.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 on the road last season.
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Will Benson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 at home last season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-178)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. I really love this pitching match-up but I do think both offenses are sneaky. Arizona has a few guys that can hit LHPs while the Dodgers have tormented Arizona in the past. Both SPs have had success against the opposition so I don’t think we want to go overweight on either side.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against LHPs in 2022.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against ARI in 2022.
Milwaukee Brewers (-145) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The weather in Chicago is going to be pretty damn cold. That’s a huge boost to the pitchers, not like Burnes needs more of a boost. I was shocked to see how well the Brewers performed against Chicago pitching in 2022. I have no interest in Stroman at this point but I also don’t have a ton of interest in MIL right now (mainly weather related). Wrigley plays pretty big when the weather is sub optimal.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 against the Cubs in 2022.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Dansby is 6 for 11 with 2 HRs against Burnes.
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Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners (-120)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I am really intrigued by this match-up but mostly for the pitching. The total tells us all we need to know. Each team has a guy or two that could get it done as a one-off but I think runs are at a premium. Will the league force Julio to struggle in year 2 or will he climb to what many expect him to, a perennial MVP candidate? Both teams have postseason aspirations.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Ramirez has 3 HRs in 18 ABs against Castillo.
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .598 against Bieber in their careers (64 ABs).
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-235)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I am all about the McClanahan train today and in futures. I have stated numerous times how I believe he wins at least 1 Cy Young during his career. He starts the season with a super weak opponent, while pitching at home. E-Rod is one of those SPs that can shock with a strong performance but he also could give up 4 runs in 4 innings. The TB lineup doesn’t scare me overall but the top half could be a sneaky stack option.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .123 against LHPs in 2022.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: The 4 listed above are a combined 22 for 63 with 4 HRs against E-Rod.
Los Angeles Angels (-225) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
A’s – Kyle Muller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. This game shouldn’t be all that competitive but it is baseball and weird shit happens! Ohtani should dominate but remember that Ks are suppressed in this ballpark. I think OAK’s play is to play the on-base game this season and hope their speed manufactures them some runs. Muller might be one of the weakest opening day starters I can remember. Can we get a Trout bomb to begin the season?
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against LHPs in 2022. Keep in mind that Renfroe and Drury weren’t part of that.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Do we really want to roster an Oakland A against Ohtani? Oakland did put up 40 SBs during Spring Training.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Red Sox – Cory Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should see some offense in this one so I do expect both teams to have some ownership as they are both sitting within my top 5-6 stacks on the main slate. I trust Kluber more than Gibson but I can say with 100% certainty that I will not be rostering either SP on this slate. Santander is one of my sneaky HR calls while Mateo is one of my SB predictions.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: The three above are a combined 19 for 52 with 7 extra-base hits against Kluber.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team has an OPS of 1.032 against Gibson in their careers.
San Francisco Giants @ New York Yankees (-190)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get a great pitching match-up but there could be some HRs hit. We know how powerful the Yankees can be and we also know that Cole can have some HR issues. I probably end up very underweight on Cole but that’s more of a product of the amount of SP options. The big question for me is, how does Judge perform with his huge contract coming off of his 2022 season?
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Joc is 4 for 9 with 2 2Bs against Cole. Short porch anybody?
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 at home in 2022.
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros (-160)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. This is a sneaky strong SP match-up, in an island game today. What I mean by island game is that it’s after the main slate but it isn’t around the time of the late games. Cease is stepping up as an elite arm at this point and I can see some big things from him this season. Valdez is just an animal on the mound as he continually goes deep into games, giving HOU a huge chance at W’s. I don’t really want to attack either SP but I think a mini-stack against Valdez makes some sense.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs in 2022.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Tucker is 4 for 6 with 2 2B and a BB against Cease.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-205)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The MLB has decided to flex this game later into the night due to potential weather issues. I haven’t seen an update from DK/FD as to whether it will continue to be part of the main slates or not. Snell gets a plus match-up but there are a few bats on COL that can hit LHPs, so it’s not a cake walk. The Padres can certainly put up some runs against Marquez but he looked excellent during the spring and we know that this ballpark isn’t the best for offensive production.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Yonathan Daza
GPP Note: Cron and Daza are a combined 17 for 33 against Snell in their careers.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .134 at home in 2022.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Minnesota Twins
- Baltimore Orioles
MLB Dinger of the Day – Trevor Larnach, Twins
Feb 24, 2023; Fort Myers, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins left fielder Trevor Larnach (9) during photo day at Hammond Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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